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gsgs

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case numbers
« on: February 12, 2020, 04:15:32 am »
some daily time series, which I think are important
to decide whether they can contain it
Time series which can be easily updated in this very first post in the thread
Jan.25-Feb.25

=======================
Feb.10-Feb.14, daily new cases, old method only
Hubei_old,2097,1638,1508,1728,1282,955
Wuhan_old,1552,1104,1072,1330,1001,?
H-W_old , 545,534, 436, 398, 281,?
hospitalised in Hubei on that day , Feb10-Feb14
25087,26121,33693,36719,38107-including 8309 with the new diagnosis

the data is no longer given since Feb.15
==============================
because to the classification changes in Hubei I add "confirmed+
2 type of suspected" (both translated to suspected by google)
since Feb14

-----------------------------------------------
Hubei ex Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected Feb14-Feb29:
4475,4015,3669,3050,2208,1647,1886
1326,1247,1075,889,720,648,543
431,272
------------------------------------------------------
Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected Feb14-Feb29:
4695,4107,3999,3739,3543,3038,4118
4655,3377,2543,2275,2059,2183,2096
1322,1008

---------------------------------------
Hubei ex Wuhan, daily new reported confirmed cases Jan25-Feb28:
277,291,399,525,678,842,771,
1027,1070,1103,1189,1221,946,856*,
768,697,545,534,436*=1404,913,497,
295,243,207,33,-266,312,52
89,50,35,31,26,5,3

*: change of definition

-----------------------------------------
China ex Hubei , daily new confirmed cases Jan.25-:
365,398,480,619,705,761,752,
678,722,890,728,707,696,558,
509,444,381,377,312,267,221
166,115,79,56,45,258,31
18,11,9,5

-----------------------------------------------------
China ex Hubei, daily new suspected cases Jan.25-
* since Feb.12  Hubei ex Wuhan
----,----,----,----,----,----,----,
1956,1913,1890,2014,2098,2211,2141,
1849,1736,1722,1657,757*,681,709
645,571,448,362,397,300,198
177,132,91,69

-----------------------------------------
beeing treated in hospital, Hubei, Jan.25-
----,----,2567,3349,4334,5486,6738,
8565,9618,10990,12627,14314,15804,19835,
20993,22160,25087,26121,33693*,36719,38107,
39447,40814,41937,43471,43745,42056,41036
40127,39073,37896,36242

---------------------------------------------
severe cases in hospital on that day , Hubei, Jan.25-
----,----,690,899,988,1094,1294,
1562,1701,2143,2520,3084,4002,5195,
5247,5505,6344,7241,7084*,9638,10152,
10396,9797,10970,11246,11178,10997,10892
10428,9430,8675,8326

--------------------------------------
under observation, Hubei, Jan.25-
6904,9103,15559,20336,26632,32340,36838,
43121,56088,58544,66764,64127,64057,67802,
70438,73127,76207,77195,77308*,77685,77323,
74261,71613,69270,68345,65525,63126,62787
61181,58575,53474,49438

here the charts for 5 time-series: (Jan.25-Feb.22)



by province and Hubei-cities:
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/actual-epidemic-charts/hubei-vs-rest-of-china/
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 08:42:59 pm by gsgs »
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epsilon

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Re: case numbers
« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2020, 06:43:20 pm »
Deaths and severe cases doubling period roughly 3 days during the early, exponential phase.

I think this gives us a good, rather unbiased proxy of actual epidemic doubling time.

After all, when assessing doubling periods it does not matter if there is systemtic under-counting of cases (i.e. if cases are off by a certain fixed factor) the doubling time will be the same.

Also consistent with latest research.

Former research (Leung et. al) used to rely on case doubling estimates of 7 days.

Many people have difficulty understanding nature of exponential growth.

Case doubling of 3 days, means: epidemic is one thousnad times larger after just 4 weeks and one million times larger after 8 weeks.






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gsgs

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Re: case numbers
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2020, 07:16:54 pm »
I'd say 4 days. In the very first phase in late Jan. they listed cases which they were trying to cover up
until ~Jan.20
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gsgs

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Re: case numbers
« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2020, 09:45:56 pm »
Code: [Select]
        confirmed     cured   deaths    Confirmed      Severe  Discharged    Deaths    Confirmed   suspect   Suspect
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
02-12,14840,13436,  802,538, 242,216, 43455,30043,  7084,5426, 3441,1915, 1310,1036, 48206,32994, 1377,620, 9028,4904
02-13, 4823, 3910,  690,370, 116, 88, 46806,32959,  9278,7492, 3862,2016, 1318,1016, 51986,35991, 1154,473, 6169,2585
02-14, 2420, 1923,  912,486, 139,107, 48175,34289, 10152,8335, 4774,2502, 1457,1123, 54406,37914, 1216,507, 5534,2265
02-15, 1843, 1548,  849,413, 139,110, 49030,35314, 10396,8530, 5623,2915, 1596,1233, 56249,39462, 1036,391, 5243,2168
02-16, 1933, 1690, 1016,543, 100, 76, 49847,36385,  9797,8056, 6639,3458, 1696,1309, 58182,41152,  909,338, 4826,1971
02-17, 1807, 1600, 1223,761,  93, 72, 50338,37152, 10970,9222, 7862,4219, 1789,1381, 59989,42752,  788,340, 4194,1799
02-18, 1693, 1660, 1266,676, 132,116, 50633,38020, 11246,9562, 9128,4895, 1921,1497, 61682,44412,  596,234, 3462,1649
02-19,  349,  615, 1209,553, 108, 88, 49665,37994, 11178,9689,10337,5448, 2029,1585, 62013,45027,  880,483, 3456,1940
conf,cure,dead,con2,sev2,+disc,+dead,+conf,susp,+susp
newly confirmed cases
newly cured cases
new death cases
confirmed cases
severe cases among them
total discharged patients
total deaths
total confirmed cases
new suspected cases
suspected cases
 ; Hubei,Wuhan


02-19,279 corrected

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gsgs

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Re: case numbers
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2020, 11:14:21 pm »
South Korea
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

02-18,09265,021,10,000,0,09234,00957,08277
02-19,10411,034,12,000,0,10365,01030,09335
02-20,12161,082,16,066,1,12079,01633,10446
02-21,14816,156,16,139,1,14660,02707,11953
02-22,19621,346,17,327,2,19275,05481,13794
02-23,22633,556,18,534,4,22077,06039,16038
02-24,28615,763,18,738,7,27852,08725,19127
02-25,36716,893,22,863,8,35823,13273,22550
total
confirmed
discharged
isolated
deaths
suspected
being tested
negative
« Last Edit: February 25, 2020, 10:19:24 pm by gsgs »
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