Author Topic: cases,severe cases,deaths,recovered,quarantined  (Read 151 times)

gsgs

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« Last Edit: February 10, 2020, 11:03:42 pm by gsgs »

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epsilon

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Re: cases,severe cases,deaths,recovered,quarantined
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2020, 07:30:10 am »
Hi gsgs,

thank you very much for this very valuable charts.
One question: I assume charts on the left hand side show cases for all of China v.s China minus Hubei on the right, both with logarithmic ordinate, right ?   

gsgs

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Re: cases,severe cases,deaths,recovered,quarantined
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2020, 08:56:57 am »
all of China, left and right , but right is logarithmic.
Hubei is only in the other thread.
I may add a new thread with Wuhan vs. rest of Hubei.

In this thread maybe I should omit the left side altogether and only take the logarithmical one.

There are frequent changes currently, in what form China offers the data



epsilon

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Re: cases,severe cases,deaths,recovered,quarantined
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2020, 09:14:39 am »
Quote
I may add a new thread with Wuhan vs. rest of Hubei.

It would also of great interest to have the time series for Wuhan-only.

Because this should show the full progression from unmitigated community spread (january) and the subsequent effectiveness of the strict social distancing implemented by jan 23 (i.e. effective since jan 23 plus one incubation period) 

This should fit an exponential curve due to base reproductive factor R0 (estimated 2-4) followed by a curve governed by the effective R_eff after mitigation measures in place. Goal is to, hopefully, reach R_eff < 1.

Wuhan is already in maximum shutdown mode that is conceivable for a modern city. So the development there will give us an idea if containment in urban areas due to isolation measures will work at all.