Author Topic: UK-deaths prediction , 2020/04/16  (Read 58 times)

gsgs

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UK-deaths prediction , 2020/04/16
« on: April 17, 2020, 01:35:23 am »
they have an unusually high percent of positives in UK, >40%  [only in England ?? Wales,Scot,NI]
compare with Italy,Czech,Poland,Austria :
http://magictour.free.fr/PR-0416.GIF

ONS reports weekly deaths from all causes
https://data.gov.uk/dataset/1cf2c6d1-b69b-4122-94ce-006202c323ba/weekly-provisional-figures-on-deaths-registered-in-england-and-wales

Code: [Select]
weekly provisional deaths in England and Wales
-11-,-12-,-13-,-14-  , week (mar7-apr3)
2725,2709,2786,3865, at home
4975,4770,5105,7884, hospital
0553,0551,0504,0554, hospice
2471,2335,2489,3769, care home
0044,0043,0033,0053, other communal
0249,0238,0225,0272, elsewhere

from COVID
0,1,15,120,at home
5,100,501,3110,hospital
0,0,2,31,hospice
0,2,20,195,care home
0,0,0,3,other communal
0,0,1,16,elsewhere


~2000 additional deaths at home or care home
so, add 65% to the normal COVID-reported deaths
in total deaths in England and Wales were 16397/11142 = 47% increased in week 14
this should go up in weeks 15,16 and then slowly decline.
Total excess deaths ~50000 in this wave
-----------edit----------
well, IHME is down today (2020/04/17/05:30-UTC) to 23791, [it was >60000 on Apr07]
plus 47% would be ~35000 for the UK
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom
------------------------

In Milan or NY it was ~100% increased , in Bergamo ~500% in the peak-weeks

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