Author Topic: Feb.2020b  (Read 36 times)

gsgs

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Feb.2020b
« on: February 17, 2020, 07:58:39 am »
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Lipsitch , Feb14 :
>  but over the last few days, it appears that the rate of increase in new cases in China has slowed
> relative to the exponential growth we saw before
>  ...Unfortunately, I think it’s more likely to be that it’s gathering steam
> ...There’s likely to be a period of widespread transmission in the U.S.,
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[THREAD]
Harvard-Uni-Direktor erklärt wissenschaftlich, warum #Coronavirus #CONVID9 wahrscheinlich
eine weltweite Pandemie wird & dabei 40-70% der Erdbevölkerung infiziert?

(Mindestens 3 weltweit anerkannte Experten haben dies bisher ebenfalls geäußert: https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/coronavirus-could-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/coronavirus-could-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says


Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows
By John Lauerman
February 13, 2020, 4:28 PM GMT+1
Updated on February 13, 2020, 6:23 PM GMT+1


 > As the number of coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top infectious-disease
 > scientist warns that things could get far worse: Two-thirds of the world’s population could catch it.
 > So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization who tracked studies
 > of the virus’s transmissibility in China. His estimate implies that there could eventually
 > be billions more infections than the current official tally of about 60,000.

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Feb 14 , mlipsitch twitter
Why do I think a pandemic is likely? The infection is in many parts of China and many
countries in the world, with meaningful numbers of secondary transmissions.
The scale is much larger than SARS for example (where the US had many introductions
and no known onward transmission)
Why do I think 40-70% infected? Simple math models with oversimple assumptions would
predict far more than that given the R0 estimates in the 2-3 range (80-90%).
Making more realistic assumptions about mixing, perhaps a little help from seasonality,
brings the numbers down
pandemic flu in 1968 was estimated to _symptomatically_ infect 40% of the population,
and in 1918 30%. Those likely had R0 less than COVID-19.  Below is from https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/11425
What could make this scenario not happen? 1) conditions in Wuhan could be so
different in some fundamental way from elsewhere that we are mistaken in expecting
further outbreaks to have basic aspects in common. No reason I know of to think that
but a formal possibility
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Feb.24, Lipsitch
In my opinionSeems weird that @WHO Spox says some countries have stopped xmission.

Feb.23, Rivers
There will be lots of discussion about whether containment was ever possible,
and whether the measures taken to try were justified
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And although it is seeming increasingly unlikely that we will stop transmission
entirely like we were able to with SARS and 2014 Ebola, we can and should
continue to prioritize slowing transmission down.
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Kai Kupferschmidt  @kakape ; Branswell agrees
From the start, @WHO  has been very clear about its strategy: Fight #SARSCoV2 hard
at its source in China and keep it from establishing a foothold elsewhere.
It was always a long shot, but it was the right thing to do and it has bought the world time.
--------------------------------
 @WHO and @drtedros  have emphasized again and again that there is a “window of opportunity”
to contain #COVID19. On Friday, Tedros said he believed that window of opportunity was
still there, but narrowing. Personally, I think the last days have shown that time is up.
------------------------------------
cruiseship,prison,hospital,Iran,SKorea,Singapore
The massive efforts in China have bought us time.
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The massive efforts in China have bought us time.
24.02.2020 · The World Health Organization on Monday said the new coronavirus epidemic had "peaked" in China
 The Economy by Paul Hodges, which suggests that China’s month-long lockdown makes a global debt crisis almost certain. Editor’s note:

. China’s economy cannot stand being on hold for much longer.




« Last Edit: March 02, 2020, 08:14:28 am by gsgs »

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