Author Topic: March 19, expert prediction survey  (Read 77 times)

gsgs

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March 19, expert prediction survey
« on: March 19, 2020, 04:58:18 am »
https://works.bepress.com/mcandrew/2/

18  US-experts

1. Experts predict a three-fold rise in reported cases in the US over the next week.
2. The average probability that experts assigned to a “second wave” of COVID
occurring in the fall months (Aug.-Dec.) of 2020 was 73%.
3. Experts anticipate 19 US states will report more than 100 cases of COVID-19
within one week (80% uncertainty interval: 10-36 states).
4. Experts believe that only 12% (80% uncertainty interval: 4-34%) of all SARS-CoV-2 infections
(symptomatic and asymptomatic) in the US were reported by COVID Tracker as of Sunday,
March 15th. This implies that as of the beginning of this week there were between
10,329 and 87,800 undiagnosed infections of SARS-CoV-2 in the US. 
5. Experts believe COVID-19 will be responsible for around 195,000 deaths
(approximate 80% uncertainty interval: 19,000-1,200,000) in the US by the end of 2020.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 05:05:06 am by gsgs »

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gsgs

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Re: March 19, expert prediction survey
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2020, 04:43:32 am »
------------------------------------------------------
https://www.covid.is/data

Iceland, Mar14-Mar18
deCODE-tests,956,1416,855,460,903
deCODE-positive,9,10,4,3,7
NUHI-tests,323,119,291,545,420
NUHI-positive,24,11,8,46,66
deCODE : 0.7% positive , NUHI : 9.1% positive
~1% of the population infected in Europe-Italy and USA ,
and _not_ the 0.02% estimated by experts here :
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ex...iction-survey/
or what am I missing ?

~20-fold underreporting ,
that would mean for Wuhan with 50000 confirmed cases and 2500 deaths
that ~10% of Wuhan was infected and 0.25% of these died
for USA the estimate for a wave would be 77500 deaths
not more than the severe 2017/2018 flu-season and the
expected lost life-years were even a lot smaller

"just the flu" after all ?!?

there could be lots of underreported deaths in Wuhan and the underreporting may change
during the wave, Iceland is just at the start

In Lombardy and Quom we may have 10% of the population infected already

they are at least 2 weeks ahead of Iceland
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 05:13:16 am by gsgs »