Author Topic: B.1.1.529 (=omicron)  (Read 902 times)

gsgs

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Re: B.1.1.529 (=omicron)
« on: December 23, 2021, 06:35:29 am »
early omicron severety studies :

ZAF : https://t.co/g24KTGU7Io
DNK : https://t.co/pQnetTf7IP
ENG : https://t.co/chqPEhph3p
SCO : https://t.co/CMv2zkG2sh

DNK,VE : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v2.full.pdf


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vaccine effectiveness

AZ,BNT,Mod
D,2,h,78,91
D,3,h,98,98
O,2,h,51,75
O,3,h,90,86
O,2,h,ar,54,77
O,3,h,ar,92,88


O,2,s,--,55,37

ar:adjusted for reinfections
s: symptomatic disease
h:hospitalisation
O:omicron
D:delta
w:weeks

https://twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1474070653326270473

O,2AZ+BNT,s,3w,60
O,2AZ+BNT,s,10w,35
O,2AZ+Mod,s,10w,45
O,3BNT,s,1w,70
O,3BNT,s,10w,45
O,2BNT+Mod,9w,72
O,2Mod,3w,50
O,2Mod,22w,0

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 SARS CoV-2 entry into a cell can occur via two routes: one that only needs ACE2 and
another that needs ACE2 and TMPRSS2.
TMPRSS2 (T2) is higher in the lower airways and so virus goes the second route in those areas.
Omicron spike has reduced ability to use the ACE2+T2 route and doesn't respond to higher
T2 levels, unlike Delta
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TB33 : risk(EC or hosp,omicron)=0.62*risk(EC,delta)
risk(hosp,omicron)=0.38*risk(hosp,delta)
This effect is still present when stratified by vaccination status

Using a very similar data set, Imperial College, provided estimates that Omicron cases had a 15
to 25% (Hazard ratio 0.8; 95% CI 0.75-85) reduced risk of emergency department attendance
(hospitalisations in their data set) and 40 to 49% (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.51-59) reduced risk of a
hospitalisation with a stay of one or more nights. Importantly, this group attempt to impute the
effect of prior infection, highlighting that while 17% of the population have tested positive for
COVID-19, this is likely to capture only one-third of total infections that have occurred in
England. Including the likelihood of previous infection, in addition to vaccination in their model,
they have estimated the intrinsic risk difference between Delta and Omicron as between 0 to
30% and the reduced risk of hospitalisation in those previously infected estimated as 55 to 70%.
===========================================================
The Sato Lab (Kei Sato)  @SystemsVirology
Japan - #Omicron is less infectious and pathogenic than #Delta and even an early pandemic
SARS-CoV-2 in infected hamster model. 1/5
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Omicron infection enhances neutralizing immunity against Delta
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> One of the studies shows omicron is 89% as severe in people with no vax, never infected
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Coetzee :
"And their symptoms don't seem to get any worse than that. After about five
days they clear up, and that's it."
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Omicron appears to have switched cell entry preference to endosomal fusion
(rather than ACE2+TMPRSS2 mediated cell surface fusion
like previous variants, incl. the well adapted Delta)
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Robert Koch Institute report released today states that 95.58% of the #Omicron cases
in Germany are fully vaccinated (28% of those had a "booster"), 4.42% are unvaccinated.
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 the 2nd dose mRNA vaccine given to someone who also had past infection
did not further increase antibodies
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    Daily modelled estimates produced by the ONS showed around 9.5% of Londoners had
COVID-19 as of Sunday
    Report also showed a record 1 in 35 people in England had COVID-19 between Dec.
13 and Dec. 19
The ONS report also showed a record 1 in 35 people in England had COVID-19 between Dec. 13 and Dec. 19 — compared with a previous estimate published on Thursday of 1 in 45 in the week to Dec. 16.
7% infected in London during Christmas
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Study estimates nation’s Omicron outbreak grew 70% in a week to hit one in 25 people – as data shows infections are now rising quickest in over-65s

The Office for National Statistics swabbing estimates that 2.03 million people had the virus
on any given day in the week before Christmas
2022-01-01 , granthshala.com
The ONS conducts weekly surveillance tests
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2022-01-04 , Neil Ferguson warns of 5,000 Omicron deaths a DAY in UK
ahh, seems to be old news (I had missed it)
Published: 15:38 GMT, 17 December 2021 | Updated: 23:58 GMT, 17 December 2021
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@IHME_UW
 new projections show that daily estimated #COVID19 infections has peaked at 6.2 million
on 1/6 in the US, but daily cases will rise to nearly 1.2 million by 1/19, 2022.
80-90% asymptomatic
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intrinsically reduced virulence may account for an approx 25%

« Last Edit: January 13, 2022, 04:03:33 am by gsgs »