nCoV_info

General Category => nCoV - discussion => Topic started by: gsgs on April 07, 2020, 07:58:15 am

Title: Apr07 model UofWA
Post by: gsgs on April 07, 2020, 07:58:15 am
Apr.07 , Chris Murray , UofWA  Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
https://covid19-projections.com/
https://covid19forecasthub.eu/reports.html
https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/india/

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COVID-19-deaths until Aug04
peak-date
country
-------------------------

00385,Mar31,Austria
03546,Apr06,Belgium
00303,Apr24,Bulgaria
00166,Apr20,Croatia
00054,Apr19,Cyprus
00411,Apr12,Czechia
00529,Apr09,Denmark
00484,Apr25,Estonia
00225,Apr21,Finland
15058,Apr01,France
08802,Apr14,Germany
00457,Apr18,Greece
00477,Apr23,Hungary
00401,Apr04,Ireland
20300,Mar28,Italy
00125,Apr25,Latvia
05808,Apr10,Netherlands
01953,Apr21,Poland
19209,Mar31,Spain
04182,Apr25,Sweden
66314,Apr17,UK
81766,Apr15,USA

--------------------------------------------
update 0408, 60415,Apr11,USA
update 0413, 68841,Apr10,USA
update 0413, 23791,Apr14,UK
update 0413, 15834,May04,NL
update 0413, 17448,Apr02,F
update 0413, 21130,Mar28,I

IHME,Mar27, USA=81114
IHME,Apr01, USA=93765,
IHME,Apr08, USA=60415,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20300,F=15058,D=8802,B=3546,Ire=0527,NY=13307
IHME,Apr16, USA=60415,UK=66314
IHME,Apr17, USA=68841,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20333,F=15058,D=7080,B=4291,Ire=527,NY=13307
IHME,Apr22, USA=67641,UK=31929,S=10584,I=26867,F=23304,D=6124,B=8128,Ire=1030,NY=24000
IHME,Apr29, USA=72860,UK=31476,S=15625,I=27544,F=24918,D=6946,B=7708,Ire=1404,NY=24314
IHME,May06,USA=134475,UK=40555,S=10196,I=31458,F=28859,D=8543,B=9464,Ire=1698,NY=32132
IHME,May12,USA=147040,UK=43479,S=5769,I=35137,F=31155,D=9905,B=10594,Ire=1736,NY=34068
Brazil=88305,Canada=9945,Mexico=6859,Peru=6428,Turkey=5263,IL=7830,PA=12420,CA=5832,OH=2844
IHME,May29,USA=135109,UK=44389,S=05258,I=43297,F=31466,D=9146,B=9699,Ire=1692,NY=31295
Brazil=125833,Canada=8148,Mex=6859,Peru=19722,Turkey=4759,Russia=7201,
CA=12951,GA=2759,IL=6371,MO=996,NY=31295,OH=3227,PA=6418,TX=2025
IHME,Jun17,USA=201129(by Oct01),UK=43963(Aug04),S=8534,I=35230,F=34602,D=9500,B=11093,Ire=1727
BRA=165960,CDN=8148,MEX=51912,PER=19722,Turkey=5176,Russia=21895
CA=15155,GA=10142,IL=8274,MO=1647,NY=33685,OH=3658,PA=8831,TX=5567
IHME,Jun28,USA=179106,UK=47924(Oct01),S=5754,I=41756,F=30391,D=11555,B=9869,Ire=1790,
BRA=166362,CDN=10053,MEX=88150,PER=36210,Turkey=29895,Russia=19105,PAK=42188
CA=11631,GA=6614,IL=8487,MO=2778,NY=31837,OH=3781,PA=7799,TX=13736
Title: Re: Apr07 model UofWA
Post by: gsgs on May 20, 2020, 04:54:05 am
another forecaster :

https://covid19-projections.com/

2020/05/20
USA:195077 deaths by Aug04 , 143357
Sweden : 7331 , 5760
UK: 50070 , 43479
Germany: 10836
Ukraine:7842 , 1269
Belgium: 10388
Poland: 2475 , 1990
Brazil: 136958 , 88305
China: 4642
India: 42361
Indonesia: 2572
Iran: 13296
Mexico: 67887 , 6859
Nigeria: 681
Russia: 16758
Bangladesh: 3370

Europe: 217562
World: 776423

Jun01,
US=192098,S=7028,UK=47696,DE=10399,UKR=3378,B=10196,POL=2133,BRA=139005,
CHN=4648,IND=55797,IDN=5654,Iran=11985,MEX=97096,NIG=1543,Russia=23727,BGD=6065
CA=12938,GA=6080,IL=10499,MO=2743,NY=33017,OH=6560,PA=9492,TX=5563

Jun17,(by Oct01)
US=189793,S=6314,UK=49276,DE=10481,UKR=3600,B=10078,POL=3294,BRA=121826,
CHN=4648,IND=358926,IDN=9179,IRN=16640,MEX=84651,NIG=2654,RUS=22371,BGD=10994
CA=16484,GA=5869,IL=11777,MO=1692,NY=32952,OH=5212,PA=9382,TX=4511

India projected at 360000 deaths now ! It was 56000 on Jun01, I wonder what changed

Jun29,(by Oct01)
US=180095,S=6325,UK=48877,DE=10535,UKR=3309,B=10022,POL=3017,MDA=1502,BRA=133726
CHN=4649,IND=100789,IDN=8233,IRN=19750,MEX=98421,NIG=1867,RUS=19092,BGD=8633
CA=14430,GA=5941,IL=10368,MO=1759,NY=33439,OH=5038,PA=9343,TX=7006

India back to 100000
Title: Re: Apr07 model UofWA
Post by: gsgs on September 04, 2020, 02:40:48 am
https://twitter.com/AliHMokdad/status/1301671920916525056

IHME on Sep04 predicts 410000 deaths for USA until Jan01

covid-projections gives 220300 until Nov01, 16000 per month (-->260000 until Jan01)
Title: Re: Apr07 model UofWA
Post by: gsgs on September 22, 2020, 08:01:58 pm
Sep23 , IHME deaths forecast for Jan01 :
USA=378321,CHN=6915,AUS=950,IDN=22346,AUT=4236,BEL=13488,CRO=2878,CZE=8080,
FRA=88528,GER=22664,ITA=67687,RUS=98182,SRB=771,SPA=65921,SWE=9813,UK=93429
BRA=170072,MEX=139894,ISR=7153,CAN=17511,NY=43857,IND=625165,

Sep23,covidtracker deaths forecast for Nov01 :
USA=222951,NY=33425,CAN=9777,AUT=883,BEL=10240,CRO=356,CZE=931,FRA=34991,
GER=9667,ITA=36812,SPA=37969,SWE=5957,UK=43826
AUS=981,BRA=159314,CHN=4790,IND=135730,IDN=14641,ISR=2095,MEX=88524,
RUS=24337,



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France currently has  31416 total deaths and 50 per day
it currently redoubles every 14 days
31416+75*14+150*14+300*10=37566  by Nov01
===> deaths by Nov01
Title: Re: Apr07 model UofWA
Post by: gsgs on December 09, 2020, 05:54:09 am
2020/12/09, death forecasts per 2021/04/01 by IHME :
USA=538893,GER=108119,FRA=93581,ITA=101176,UK=118674,BRA=217147,IRN=94389

2021-06-13, death forecasts per 2021-10-01 by IHME :
USA=950337,GER=133026,FRA=143473,ITA=164264,UK=153761,BRA=727083,IND=1198621,all,9505216

Title: Re: Apr07 model UofWA
Post by: gsgs on June 12, 2021, 10:48:43 pm
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22457-w.pdf

Title: Re: Apr07 model UofWA
Post by: gsgs on June 27, 2021, 09:26:05 pm
IHME death-predictions for 2021-06-28 and 2021-10-01 on 2021-06-28 :
USA,925751,949335
UK,152318,163383
GER,132000,133264
BRA,643700,761018
CHL,32285,44985
ISR,6860,6901
IND,1111110,1162831
IDN,152432,386181
RUS,852715,1003439
SA,156505,208921

IHME death-predictions for 2021-12-01 on 2021-08-25 :
USA:727949
UK:166634
GER:117836
IND:458856
BRA:642610
MEX:298179
IDN:216577
AUS:2041
NZ:29