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Messages - gsgs

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1
genetics / release 240.0
« on: November 03, 2020, 01:19:51 am »
2020/11/03 , genbank release 240 , Oct.15 is available

https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genbank/gbrel.txt

release 239 from Aug2020 had 39 virus files with 17491 MB and 3161686 sequences and 5824026918 Bases
   and 50462 coronavirus nucleotide sequences
release 240 from Oct2020 has 44 virus files with 18889 MB and 3223498 sequences and 6442230159 Bases
   and 68651 coronavirus nucleotide sequences 33844 of which are SARS2

2
genetics / Re: genbank 04/11
« on: October 28, 2020, 10:19:00 pm »
2020/10/29 , 36846 sequences



----------------------------------------
    Charite has 544 German sequences now,
    36 from October , all with the D614G mutation
    https://civnb.info/sequences/

    the most frequent mutations from October are :

    36,C3037T,C241T,C14408T,A23403G
    14,G28883C,14,G28882A,14,G28881A

    10,G21255C
    9,T445C
    9,G29645T
    9,G25563T
    9,C6286T
    9,C28932T
    9,C22227T
    8,G27870T
    8,C6040T
    8,C27944T
    8,C26801T
    8,C21614T
    7,C28854T

    27 (10 from October) are the new Spanish strain "20A.EU1" from this paper :
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...063v1.full.pdf
    mutation picture : http://magictour.free.fr/sars2de5.GIF
   

3
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: October 18, 2020, 05:53:35 am »
links Oct18 :

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni.csv

Spain : https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_205_COVID-19.pdf
-Fri: https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx
Madrid,Wed: https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/epid/informe_epidemiologico_semanal_covid.pdf
https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/200907_cam_covid19.pdf
Aragon : https://transparencia.aragon.es/COVID19
https://www.aragon.es/documents/20127/38742837/casos_coronavirus_provincias.csv
Catalunya: https://analisi.transparenciacatalunya.cat/

France: https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/donnees-hospitalieres-relatives-a-lepidemie-de-covid-19/#_
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-relatives-aux-resultats-des-tests-virologiques-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/taux-dincidence-de-lepidemie-de-covid-19/#_

Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
India: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
UK, hosp.: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
ECDC subnational : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/subnational-14-day-notification-rate-covid-19
ECDC subnational weekly : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/weekly-subnational-14-day-notification-rate-covid-19
ECDC,hosp. : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-data-hospital-and-icu-admission-rates-and-current-occupancy-covid-19
hospit.0828 : https://osf.io/43ucn/download
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
US: https://covidtracking.com/api  https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
US,deaths : https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/y5bj-9g5w/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD&bom=true&format=true%20target=
OxCGRT-Index : https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/raw/master/data/OxCGRT_latest.csv
F,deaths : https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4487988?sommaire=4487854

spain ; https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
Belgium : https://t.co/8XtR9D5IKV?amp=1
Vienna : https://coronavirus.wien.gv.at/site/aktuelle-kennzahlen-aus-wien/
Argentina : https://www.argentina.gob.ar/salud/epidemiologia/boletines2020

NDR :  https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/
WDR : https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/themen/coronavirus/ticker-corona-virus-nrw-100.html
Biden: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
CDS : http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/cds-historical-data/


-------------------------------------------------
charts :

world , daily cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/e-1017.GIF
European regions : http://magictour.free.fr/euw39.GIF
weekly : http://magictour.free.fr/wo_34a.GIF

4
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: October 18, 2020, 05:47:40 am »
========
2020/09/22
DEU,1821,10;ESP,31428,168; FRA,4209,?; BEL,2646,11;ITA,2937,32;GBR,4368,11;NLD,5948,8
ISR,4300,30;HUN,876,3;CZE,1190,19;AUT,632,1;ROM,808,23;UKR,2675,26;POL,748,5
Wien,205,1,4.16%, Aragon,pr=10.3; Madrid,11991*,24*
 past exposure to dengue may provide some immunity against COVID-19
=====================================================
2020/09/23,Wed
DEU,1769,13;ESP,10799,241;FRA,10008,78;BEL,1097,2;ITA,1391,14;GBR,4926,37;NLD,2245,10
ISR,2445,12; HUN,633,8;CZE,1566,9;AUT,662,4;ROM,1059,45;UKR,2884,59;POL,711,18
Wien,305,3,6.0,Aragon,pr=10.9,Madrid,3652,106
ehw38a.GIF, wo31c.GIF
in week 38, cases were increasing in 80 from 120 reporting Countries with >5M population  (it was 48 from 119 in week 37)
=============================================================
2020/09/24,Thu
DEU,2143,19;ESP,11289,778,130;FRA,13072,649,43;BEL,2931,7;ITA,1640,20;GBR,6178,37;NLD,4602,15
ISR,12306,42;HUN,951,8;CZE,3827,25;AUT,848,6;ROM,1767,47,UKR,3497,63;POL,974,28
Wien,pr=6.1;Aragon,pr=7.9;madrid,3730,147,4,32
According to a preprint, Tokyo reached 46% AB-Seroprevalence
to myself : I should update mobility charts
Austria : https://www.data.gv.at/covid-19/
https://osf.io/mpwjq/files/   https://osf.io/43ucn/download
Trump announced today he will overrule FDA in the vaccine if he disagrees with them
southern hemisphere skipped flu season in 2020
Euromomo week 38 : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo38.PNG
===================================================
2020/09/25,Fri
DEU,2153,15;ESP,10653,84;FRA,16096,613,53,BEL,1661,4;ITA,1786,23;GBR,6634,40;NLD,
ISR,7425,53;HUN,750,7;CZE,2910,12;AUT,686,6;ROM,1639,41;UKR,3372,52;POL,1136,25
Wien - delay;Aragon,8.33;Madrid,4350,64,2,29,
Cidrap :Falling COVID-19 viral loads may explain lower rates of ICU use, deaths
IHME predicts 378321 US-COVID-deaths by Jan01, they assume seasonality
in deaths from COVID
to myself : examine Belgium's lack of elderly infections in wave 2
create the out10.csv charts
mobility charts created (national only), mobility is generally high again,
no concern to travel in wave 2,
  no clear connection of waves and mobility pattern
Spanish government recommends locking down all of Madrid
=================================================
2020/09/26.Sat
DEU,2507,92,9;ESP,12272,840,114;FRA,15797,661,56(150);ITA,1912,20;
GBR,6873,34;BEL,1881,6;NLD,5321,32;POL,1587,23;CZE,1653,11;AUT,769,3;
ROM,1629,42;UKR,3565,70;HUN,927,9;ISR,3168,27
Wien,5.4;Aragon,861;Madrid,2941,183,10,23
===============================================
2020/09/27,Sun
DEU,1411,80,5;ESP,,;FRA,14412,475,39;ITA,1869,17;GBR,6041,35
BEL,2208,4;NLD,2713,38;POL,1584,32;CZE,3267,13;AUT,618,1;
ROM,1552,54;UKR,3833,6;HUN,950,12;ISR,11827,36;ARG,11249,335
Wien,Aragon,861;Madrid,4350,64,2,29
doctors threaten to go on strike in Spain, too much work
scientists go on strike in Belgium, politicians should not hide behind scientists
but give their own interviews (or such)
======================================
2020/09/28,Mon
DEU,1192,52,3;FRA,11123,229,27;ITA,1766,17;UK,5692,17;BEL,1827,5;NLD,2995,8
CZE,718,10;USA,37149,421
ISR,3926,25;ARG,8841,206
Vienna,11.3;Aragon,9.2;Madrid,2941,183,10,23
Vienna, weekly positive-rate from 6.02 down to 5.71  !
hospitalizations were increasing by 20%, though
with a total of 244 deaths so far in a city of 1.9M
Aragon's wave2 started early, they had a double-peak and it's also
declining now : 450 deaths in wave 2 so far. (930 in wave 1) pop.=1.3M
RKI-review of NPIs :https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/impact-control-measures-oecd.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
few elderly cases in wave 2 in Austria and Belgium : http://magictour.free.fr/aged1.GIF
====================================
2020/09/29,Tue
DEU,2089,41,11;SPA,31785,1297,179;FRA,4070,589,81;ITA,1494,16;UK,4044,13
ISR,2239,41;ARG,11807,364
Wien,6.6;Aragon,12.9;Madrid,13449,224,9,33(3d) {h-weekly:671,704,460,855}
DAX=12862,DOW=27564,Euro=1.167,bitcoin=9156,gold=1880,oil=42.85,VIX=31
============================================
2020/09/30,Wed
GER,1798,70,17; SPA,9906,900,203; FRA,8051,638,85; ITA,1647,24; UK,7143,71
ISR,3661,21 holiday; ARG,13477,406
Wien,4.5; Aragon,8.8; Madrid,18.3; Spain,10.9;Israel,15.0
=============================================
2020/10/01,Thu
GER,2503,89,12; SPA,11016,815,177; FRA,12845,617,63; ITA,1850,19; UK,7108,71
ISR,8568,41; ARG,14392,418
Wien,6.1; Aragon,8.8; Madrid,18.7;Spain,11.9;
Madrid quarantined (now as it goes down in Madrid : daily PR=
21.6,19.3,20.9,24.4,24.9,22.9,21.9, 22.2,21.7,23.2,20.9,21.9,19.5,18.3,18.7)
After months of debate, NL issues 'urgent advice' for masks in public spaces -
German chancellor : 19200 daily German cases by Xmas
=============================================
2020/10/02,Fri
GER,2673,121,8;SPA,9414,829,88,182; FRA,13970,603,63;ITA,2548,24;UK,6914,69
ISR,7996,53;ARG,14001,3351 ?!? (20288 total deaths)
Wien,Aragon,8.7; Madrid,18.0;Spain,09.3
R0 below 1 in France : https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-france/
Trump has COVID
DAX=12593,DOW=27373,Euro=1.1727,Gold=1906,oil=39.5,VIX=33.5
----------------------------------------------
recategorization of 3050 deaths from the Province of Buenos Aires
Argentina quarantine Mar20-Oct11
====================================================
2020/10/03,Sat
GER,2563,66,19;SPA,11325,762,59,113;FRA,12148,678,136,ITA,2499,23;UK,6968,66
ISR,7030,11;ARG,14687,311
Wien,9.6; Aragon,10.9,Madrid,18.4,Spain,9.5,DOW=27691
===========================================
2020/10/04,Sun,typically reduced weekend numbers
DEU,2279,78,2;SPA,FRA,16972,498,43;ITA,2843,27;UK,12871(sep24-Oct01),324,49
ISR,2577,25;ARG,11129,196
Wien,Aragon,10.9
==============================================
2020/10/05,Mon,typically reduced weekend numbers
GER,1382,42,5; FRA,12565,402,32; ITA,2668,18; UK,22961,422,33;
BEL,3389,7; NLD,AUT,716,4
ISR,1964,28; ARG,7868,223
Wien,10.6;Aragon,10.2 ; DAX=12739
Wien gives no weekly summary this time, is it because cases are going up again ?
6.02,5.71,5.92
NBC/WSJ poll finds Biden up 27 (!) among SENIORS.
bets are 61% for Biden :
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/the-betting-markets-are-showing-a-big-biden-win-but-awaiting-an-update-20201005
==================================================
2020/10/06,Tue
GER,2639,30,12;SPA,23480,1080,139;FRA,12565,698,32;ITA,2257,16; UK,35554*,422,52
ISR,4564,59;ARG,7668,223
Wien,6.5;Aragon,12.5,Madrid,17.6,Spain,10.0
DOW=28135,Biden=67%(oddschecker.com)Trump recovered
UK-casecounts are messy currently. Better take hospitalizations.
They redouble in 14 days (as in France).
Currently 3000 people in hospital, max was 20000 in April (France,5000,30000)
Currently  3550 weekly admitted to hospital, max was  22000 in April  (France,4200,24000)
------
SARS2, survives on human skin for 9 hours
===================================================
2020/10/07,Wed
GER,2828,93,16; SPA,11078.883.141; FRA,10489,783,66; ITA,2677,28; UK,14538,496,76
ISR,4717,40; ARG,14740,359
Wien,6.9; Aragon,11.2;Madrid,18.9;Spain,10.6 (positive rates)
DOW=27798,Biden=67%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
Brussels closes all bars,cafes,restaurants
================================================
2020/10/08,Thu
GER,4058,121,16; SPA,10491,634,76; FRA,18746,765,80; ITA,3678,31; UK,14162,508,70
ISR,4455,27; ARG,16447,399;
Wien,7.4,Aragon,11.4,Madrid,21.3,Spain,10.8
DOW=28316,Biden=64.3
、野生动物病毒库、
======================================
2020/10/09,Fri
GER,4516,111,11;SPA,12423,988,126; FRA,18129,685,76;ITA,4458,22;UK,17540,609,77
ISR,3224,40; ARG,16447,399
Wien,9.8,Aragon,13.3,Madrid,14.9,Spain,9.4
DOW=28429,Biden=64.5
==========================================
2020/10/10,Sat
GER,4721,127,15;SPA,12788,913,261;FRA,20339,820,109; ITA,5372,28;UK,13864,87
ISR,2522,22; ARG,15099,515
Wien,8.5,Aragon,13.0;Madrid,15.8;Spain,9.8
DOW=28585,Biden=64.4
Van Kerkhove : mortality rate is down because of health systems,
"we are doing better" ... treating patients
{but hospitalisations are also down)
======================================\
2020/10/11,Sun
GER,3483,109,11;SPA;FRA,26896,665,101;ITA,5724,29;UK,15165,684,81
ISR,2017,55;ARG,12414,356;NLD,6499,23;BEL,5385,25;DNK,489
Wien,7.5--weekly:5.71,5.92,7.85;Aragon,14.3
heading towards 1 confirmed daily case ber 1000 population and
"herd immunity" with 10%-20% infected everywhere.
I would be surprised if NE-USA were spared
China,Korea - maybe. India,Brazil,Mexico may get another wave in Feb
Mortality and hospitalisations are low currently, they don't know why.
Will it rise again in late winter as we saw in March ?
Canada-study : masks reduce infections "up to" 30%
Low zinc levels at admission = poor outcomes
8 from 233 positives were  hospitalized =3.4%..,
43% of positives had symptoms after 30d, 24% after 90d
14% of very mild cases had symptoms after 30d
===========================================
2020/10/12,Mon
GER,2467,70,6;SPA,FRA,16101,482(t8231),46;ITA,5456,26;UK,12872,641(t3837),65
ISR,694,56;ARG,10324,135(t28298)287;DNK,927,2
Wien,10.8; Aragon,16.1; Argentina,72.5; Biden=67.6; Dow,28630
===================================================
2020/10/13,Tue
GER,4122,33,13;SPA,27856,1466,195;FRA,8505,962,141;ITA,4619,39;UK,13972,651,50
Israel,3538,41;Argentina,9524,318;
BEL,5327,16;NLD,6845,12;CZE,5001,69;HUN,1173,14;POL,4494,45;DNK,684,6
Biden=66.8,Dow=28835
Wien,2.8(whom did they test),Aragon,15.3,Spain,12.0,Madrid,18.6
------------------------------------
pop. in M : Vienna=1.9,CZE=10.7,HUN=9.7,ROM=19.2,ISR=8.7,UKR=4 3.7,SPA=46.8,BEL=11.6,
NLD=17.2,DEU=82.3,FRA=65.3,GBR=68.0,ITA=60.4,AUT=9 .0,
Vienna=1.9,Aragon=1.3,Madrid=6.5,Cataluna=7.5
ISR=8.6,ARG=45.3,POL=37.8,DNK,5.8
---------------------------------
estimated cost of COVID in US: $16T
=============================================
2020/10/14,Wed
GER,5132,102,43;SPA,7118,358,80;FRA,12993,1139,163;ITA,5898,41;UK,17232,655,143
ISR,2621,34;ARG,13305,386
BEL,3622,20;NLD,7378,35;CZE,6321,52;CHE,1445,7;DNK,489,3
Wien,7.3,Aragon,18.4,Spain,11.0,Madrid,18.4
Dow=28690,Biden=66.0,US-CDS=15.5
--------------------------
Spain deaths are plateauing at 120/day
with Madrid lockdown while Aragon gets its 3rd wave
after Catalunya stayed stable at moderate level for 11(!) weeks,
they got an 50% increase now last week
--------------------------
Latest positive rates in Europe:
UKR,17.2,POL,12.3,SPA,10.0,FRA,7.5,ITA,6.3,UK,5.9,RUS,2.8,GER,1.4
NL, bars restaurants closed no alcohol >20:00 , 3 private guests per day,
buses trains only if really necessary. Mask-rules (so far they had none).
-------------------------------
deaths in France are not increasing the last weeks ?! (but hospitalisations and
hospital deaths are increasing weekly: 190,356,351,384,503)
================================================
2020/10/15,Thu
GER,6638,128,33; SPA,11970,991,189; FRA,22591,1116,95,ITA,7332,43; UK,19724,680,137
ISR,1848,43,ARG,DNK,492,1; CZE,9543,66;NLD,7287,32;ROM,4016,66;BEL,8271,34
Wien,8.7,Aragon,13.2,Spain,11.8,Madrid,14.9
Dow=28240,Biden=65.5,US-CDS=16.1
Czech builds emergency field hospitals
===========================================
2020/10/16,Fri
GER,7334,136,24;SPA,13318,1052,140;FRA,30621,-,88;ITA,8803,83;UK,18978,792,138
ISR,1002,11;DNK,490,2;CZE,9720,58;NLD,7791,29;BEL,10448,49;ROM,4013,73
Dow=28494,Biden=65.1,gold=1913,US-CDS=16.0,USA national debt=$24T
Wien,4.9%,Aragon,17.1,Madrid,15.0,Spain,12.5
Argentina,pop=45.3M , @BNODesk , 2h ago (02:30 UTC)
cases=949063(+17096),hosp.=28987(+180),
ICU=4278(+38),deaths=25342(+421),pr=61.8%;
Belgium,pop=11.6M,10448,1949+172,327+14,49,pr=12.7
NLD,pop=19.2M,7997,1553+27,345+32,18
Health workers in France go on strike
===============================================
2020/10/17,Sat
GER,7830,111,33;SPA,15186,838,222;FRA,25086,1202,178;ITA,10009,55;UK,15635,844,136
ISR,2394,32 lockdown continued;ARG,16546,60.4%,368,68,381
CZE,11105,pr=29%,3120+200,551+8,1283+53
DNK,418,0;BEL,10448,49;NLD,7984,16;ROM,4026,75
Dow=28606,Biden=63.5,gold=1906,US-CDS=16.2
Wien,14.7,Aragon,20.1,Spa,11.7,Mad,14.7,Cat,15.6
the 2nd wave peaked in fall already in [DNK,MDA,EST,MNE ? , fill in]
Manaos,66% infected, 0.2% died
==================================================
2020/10/18,Sun
GER,5587,141,10;FRA,32427,964,89;ITA,10925,47;UK,16171,987,150
ISR,874,49;ARG,BEL,10192,32;NLD,8141,28;CZE,14152,80;
ROM,3952,63;CHE,POL,9622,84;
Wien,Aragon,17.0
Dow=28419,Biden=62.3,gold=1903,US-CDS=16.2


5
genetics / Re: genbank 04/11
« on: September 28, 2020, 09:52:42 pm »
2020/09/28

24923 COVID-19 sequences at genbank (was 16438 on 2020/08/18), file sars2-19
24185 complete ones (>29400 nucleotides)
22,208,199,355,6040,5033,2561,2869,4494,639,219 with collection months 2019/12,...,2020/09
USA:14091,AUS:5562,IND:570,EGY:233,BGD:231,THA:227,CHN:195,IRN:101,GRC:98,GER:92,
PER:89,FRA:89,JPN:84,IRQ:76,MEX:66,ITA:60,SAU:58,TUR:57,SPA:48,GHA:46
USA:WA=3455,CA=1953,FL=1520,WI=1340,VA=903,MA=876,MI=493,NY=318
human:22574,mink:13,mink:12,5:cat,2:dog,tiger:1
onp:6269,saliva:54,swab:310,saliva/onp:54,lung/oronasopharynx:49,lung:28,blood:3,feces:4,
1:onp/onp,1:placenta,1:urine

6
nCoV - discussion / Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« on: September 22, 2020, 08:01:58 pm »
Sep23 , IHME deaths forecast for Jan01 :
USA=378321,CHN=6915,AUS=950,IDN=22346,AUT=4236,BEL=13488,CRO=2878,CZE=8080,
FRA=88528,GER=22664,ITA=67687,RUS=98182,SRB=771,SPA=65921,SWE=9813,UK=93429
BRA=170072,MEX=139894,ISR=7153,CAN=17511,NY=43857,IND=625165,

Sep23,covidtracker deaths forecast for Nov01 :
USA=222951,NY=33425,CAN=9777,AUT=883,BEL=10240,CRO=356,CZE=931,FRA=34991,
GER=9667,ITA=36812,SPA=37969,SWE=5957,UK=43826
AUS=981,BRA=159314,CHN=4790,IND=135730,IDN=14641,ISR=2095,MEX=88524,
RUS=24337,



---------------------
France currently has  31416 total deaths and 50 per day
it currently redoubles every 14 days
31416+75*14+150*14+300*10=37566  by Nov01
===> deaths by Nov01

7
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: September 21, 2020, 05:24:30 am »
====================================================
2020/08/24
China,16+1+27 ; Korea,258 ; Germany,711,3,R=1.08,1.07
===================================================
2020/08/25
China,14+0+16 ; Korea,264   ; Germany,1278,5,R=0.98,0.97
COVID-charts, Aug25 :
http://magictour.free.fr/e-0825.GIF
NL,BEL, (GBR,LUX,EST,LVA,FIN,HUN,DEU )
to bend the 2nd wave ?
peakedin KEN,MEX,KAZ,PAN,CUB
==============================================
2020/08/26
China,15+0+14 ; Korea,307 ; Germany,1576,3,R=0.90,0.92
=============================================
2020/08/27
China,8+1+19 ; Korea,434 ; Germany,1507,5,R-0.85,0.93
Korea,Aug16,12676,1616,164,6882,325,193,148,37,45,1437, 57,64,172,18,18,1375,114,11
Korea,Aug26,15936,3006,233,6931,559,288,213,49,54,2387,156,87,256,57,82,1408,151,19
==================================================
2020/08/28
China,9+2+16 ; Korea,359 ; Germany,1571,3,R=0.83,0.94
RKI expects vaccine until early 2021, but not for the whole population
>6111 new cases in France, masks obligatory in whole Paris now
===================================================
2020/08/29
China,9+0+10 ; Korea,308 ; Germany,1479,1,R=0.94,1.01 ; France=267077 ; Spain=439286
Spain 10000, France 7400, Hungary closes borders for vacationers
Daegu and Gyeongbuk are spared in this "wave". Just as NYC, Lombardy
(but not Paris,Madrid)
Spain: https://www.rtve.es/noticias/coronavirus-graficos-mapas-datos-covid-19-espana-mundo/
President Macron rules out new general lockdown in France. August 20, 2020.
Macron said a second national lockdown could not be ruled out if infections spiralled
out of control , August 28
Kekulé fordert Einsatz von Corona-Schnelltests in Deutschland
 bis zum nächsten Sommer flächendeckend Impfstoffe anbieten
 Malu Dreyer: Keine Panik, Infektionen unter Kontrolle
# how that reminds me to all the other countries who could not contain it
# Czech : "no 2nd wave" , then Greece,Croatia,Austria,Hungary and now _very_
# much in Spain,France
=======================================================
2020/08/30
China,9+0+4 ; Korea,283 ; Germany,785,6,R=1.04,1.01, Spain=, France=272530+5453
=======================================================
2020/08/31
China,17+0+19;Korea,238;Germany,610,3,R=1.04,0.95;Spain=;France=277943+5413{weekend}
cumulative American infections ~14.3%
========================================================
2020/09/01
China,10+0+34  ; Korea,222 ; Germany,1218,4,R=0.94,0.88 ;
Spain=462858+23572(including weekend);France=281025+3082
 31-08-2020 15:29 Spanish Health minister rules out another nationwide lockdown
seroprevalence in Mumbay : 58% in slums, 17% in nonslums
=========================================================
2020/09/02
China,8+0+19 ; Korea,253 ; Germany,1256,11,R=0.84,0.89 ;
France=286007+4982 ; Spain=470973+8115 ; I+975 ; UK+1295 ; B+637,NL+2009
 humoral response did not decline within 4 months after infection in Iceland
===========================================================
2020/09/03
China,11+0+12 ; Korea,188
Germany,1311,8,R=0.80,0.91,weekly positiverate=79,61,59,65,79,98,100,97,85,74
FRA+7017,25;SPA+8581,42;ITA+2301,GBR+1508,BEL+445,NLD+2732,POL+595
Aragon,274,31,5
=========================================================
2020/09/04
China,25+0+26 ; Korea,189 ;Europe, 38749,511
Germany,1432,7,R=0.77,0.91
FRA,+7157,20;Spain,+8959,40;ITA,1397,10;GBR,1735;BEL,+424,1;NLD,601,POL,612,14
Aragon,229,31,14
===========================================================
2020/09/05
China,10+0+8 ; Korea,158 ; Europe,30728,282
DEU,1378,2 ; Spain,10476,184;ITA,1732,11;GBR,1940,23;
FRA+8075,18 ; BEL,633,1 ; NLD,744,2 ; POL,691,8
Aragon,1952,bing  Aragon,354,11.3%,399 transparencia ; Aragon,241,36,5 datafile
Madrid,71223+79,42325,8416+0  136901+1462,8728 rtve
=============================================================
2020/09/06
China,10+2+17 ; Korea,152 ; Europe,28743,356
DEU,988,1 ; SPA,ITA,1694,16 ; GBR,1813,12 ;
FRA,+8550,;BEL,630,2 ; NLD,654,0 ; POL,567,13
Aragon,
Madrid,
France,daily positives and tests by department,agegroup, May15-Sep03
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/406c6a23-e283-4300-9484-54e78c8ae675
France,in hospital with COVID,Mar18-Sep05,by agegroup,department:
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-hospitalieres-relatives-a-lepidemie-de-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-relatives-aux-resultats-des-tests-virologiques-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/taux-dincidence-de-lepidemie-de-covid-19/
==========================================================
2020/09/07
China,13+0+17 ; Korea,108 ; Europe,53445,269
DEU,814,0 ; SPA,ITA,1296,8 ; GBR,2988,2 ;
FRA,+7071,;BEL,1281,7 ; NLD,1579,6 ; POL,437,7
@IHME_UW "Deaths {in USA} could be reduced by 30% with masks but mask-wearing is declining"
=========================================================
2020/09/08
China,10+0+13 ; Korea, ; Europe,34940,399
DEU,1499,4,R=1.12,0.95; SPA,26560,98 {3days,weekend}; ITA,1150,11 ; GBR,2948,3
FRA,4203,25 ; BEL,542,1 ; NLD,797,? ; POL,302,4
================================================================
2020/09/09
China,2+5+8 ; Korea,144 ; Europe,39032,472
DEU,1176,9,R=1.10,0.98; SPA,8964,78 ; FRA,6544,38 ; BEL,402,2;NLD,964,1;POL,400,12
Spain will have 3M doses of vaccine in December, says health-minister
================================================================
2020/09/10
China,7+0+15; Korea,141 ; Europe,38642,266  Russia is missing
DEU,1892,3; SPA,8866,34; FRA,8577,30; BEL,372,3; ITA,1430,14; GBR,2659,8; NLD,1140,2; POL,421,11; HUN,887,4; CZE,1159,3;HRV,291,2;AUT,567,1; ROM,BUL,122,10,Europe,5099,122
Europe,weekly cases:170133,199025,220390,251958
http://magictour.free.fr/e-0909.GIF
http://magictour.free.fr/continen.GIF
seems that it's worse in winter, Europe vs. Australia >3 times more deaths. Vitamin D ?
===============================================================
2020/09/11
China,15+0+22; Korea,136 ; Europe,50227,595  Russia,Ukraine reporting unusually many deaths
DEU,1484,1; SPA,10764,61; FRA,9843,19; BEL,550,5; ITA,3027,24; GBR,2919,14; NLD,823,3
POL,506,17; HUN,718,1; CZE,1377,4; HRV,190,3; AUT,799,2; ROM,1380,47; BUL,163,4
Good news: virtual elimination of a flu season in the southern hemisphere for 2020
60% of hospitalised Covid get neuro-symptoms
Social Distancing, even outdoors reduced risk by 90%
Trump approval-rating : 531-427 worst was 561-405 on July01 best was 497-458 on Apr01
DAX=13196,DOW=27647,Euro=1184,Bitcoin=8683,gold=1944,oil=3965
Israel lockdown
============================================================
2020/09/12
China,6+1+8; Korea,118
DEU,1630,5;SPA,12183,48;FRA,9406,80; BEL,877,?; ITA,1616,180;GBR,3539,6;NLD,1270,3
ISR,5515,22;POL,594,10;HUN,CZE,1447,7;CRO,AUT,947,2;ROM,1391,35;BUL,163,4;GRE,372,4
CDC-study, bars/cafes/restaurants are risky
Trump and his appointees edited out CDC’s COVID danger warnings {in MMWR-weekly}
because they “conflicted with the presidents more optimistic message”
=============================================================
2020/09/13
China,10+0+70 ; Korea,99
DEU,948+2;SPA,FRA,10561,17;BEL,969,2;ITA,1601,?; GBR,3497,9;NLD,1231,1
ISR,4158,13;HUN,1634,3;CZE,1541,3; AUT,397,4;Romania,1311,27
Oxford vaccine trial is back on. Details of the suspected adverse event will
 not be disclosed for confidentiality reasons but independent scrutiny has
 concluded it’s safe
Österreichs Bundeskanzler Kurz sieht Österreich am Beginn der zweiten Corona-Welle.
==========================================================
2020/09/14
China,10+3+39; Korea,98
DEU,921,1:SPA,FRA,7183,6; BEL,1918.6; ITA,1456,7;GBR,3330,5; NLD,1087,1
ISR,4071,18;HUN,484,4;CZE,787,3; AUT,440,2;ROM,1109,36
Indien erwägt Notfallgenehmigung für Impfstoff
====================================================
2020/09/15,Tue
China,8+0+9; Korea,91
DEU,1407,12; SPA,27404,101;FRA,6158,34;BEL,977,2; ITA,1008,14;GBR,2621,9;NLD,1300,2
ISR,4764,17;HUN,844,5;CZE,1034,9; AUT,752,1;ROM,692,22;UKR,2462,33;POL,377,15
IND,81911,1054;IDN,3141,118;BRA,19089,454
BR24 ticker : https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/coronavirus-ticker-alle-news-vom-14-bis-20-september,SATqWOz/
peak in France's positive0rate age 0-39 ; >40 still up
====================================================
2020/09/16,Wed
China,12+0+16; Korea,105
DEU,1901,6; SPA,9437,156; FRA,7852,49; BEL,851,2; ITA,1229,9; GBR,3103,27; NLD,1379,2
ISR,4034,11; HUN,726,4; CZE,1674,11; AUT,772,?; ROM,1111,51; UKR,2905,53; POL,605,24
DAX=13212,DOW=28000,EUR=1.185,bitcoin=9069,gold=1953,oil=40.6
Wien,(pop=1.9M),400,0 ;
pop. in M : Vienna=1.9,CZE=10.7,HUN=9.7,ROM=19.2,ISR=8.7,UKR=43.7,SPA=46.8,BEL=11.6,
NLD=17.2,DEU=82.3,FRA=65.3,GBR=68.0,ITA=60.4,AUT=9.0,
Vienna=1.9,Aragon=1.3,Madrid=6.5,Cataluna=7.5
NYC lockdown reduced spread by 70%
BNT-chair says, that Germany can expect multiple vaccines & full vaccine coverage by mid-2021
=====================================================
2020/09/17,Thu
DEU,2194,3; SPA,11193,239; FRA,9784,46; BEL,489,3; ITA,1452,12; GBR,3991,20; NLD,1542,2
ISR,6063,18; HUN,581,8; CZE,2136,6 ; AUT,858,1; ROM,1713,49; UKR,2958,76; POL,600,10
Vienna,320,0;Aragon,298,;Madrid,3438,137,2,30
Spaetfolgen in 50% of severe patients
German vaccine approvement not before early 2021
===========================================================
2020/09/18
DEU,1916,7;SPA,11291,162; FRA,10593,50; BEL,1153,5; ITA,1583,13; GBR,3395,21; NLD,1763,6
ISR,8461,17; HUN,710,9; CZE,3123,7; AUT,824,0; ROM,1679,27; UKR,3584,244; POL,837,16
Wien,366,0;Aragon,330,8;Madrid,3841,?,?,15
==========================================================
2020/09/19
DEU,2297,6;SPA,14389,90; FRA,13215,154; BEL,2028,1; ITA,1907,10; GBR,4322,27; NLD,1974,7
ISR,3815,27; HUN,1651,15; CZE,2107,6; AUT,967,5; ROM,1527,48; UKR,3228,-;POL,757,17
Wien,340,2; Aragon,98,7; Madrid,5086,101,6,29
850000 in Madrid confined to their borroughs
==============================================================
2020/09/20,Sun
DEU,1345,2; SPA,FRA,13498,25; BEL,3701,2; ITA,3544,34; GBR,4422,27; NLD,1974,7
ISR,6916,35; HUN,809,6; CZE,2057,5; AUT,641,2; ROM,1333,42; UKR,3240,?; POL,1002,12
Wien,431,0;
Aragon,pr=10.6%(12.9,14.4,16.7,10.7,10.5,10.2,11.0,10.6;max was _20.0 early Aug
peak in Austria ??? http://magictour.free.fr/aut9a.GIF
3*? = very speculative,uncertain, but worth to watch.
Remember, they were also early to peak in wave1
==========================================================
2020/09/21,Mon
DEU,922,0;SPA-,-;FRA,11569,311; BEL,2772,8; ITA,3224,39; GBR,3899,18; NLD,1844,4
ISR,5916,41; HUN,1070,8; CZE,1596,3; AUT,561,1; ROM,1231,33; UKR,2966,41; POL,910,11
Wien,321,3; Aragon,pr=10.4;Madrid,2256,16
http://magictour.free.fr/fr0920.GIF
Vojtech withdraws


9
General Discussion / this board - info/help/changes/organisation
« on: September 12, 2020, 10:16:30 pm »

how to make members mods,admins
admin
permissions
click the number in the Members column
to add more members to that group


10
nCoV - discussion / Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« on: September 04, 2020, 02:40:48 am »
https://twitter.com/AliHMokdad/status/1301671920916525056

IHME on Sep04 predicts 410000 deaths for USA until Jan01

covid-projections gives 220300 until Nov01, 16000 per month (-->260000 until Jan01)

11
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: August 24, 2020, 08:28:02 am »
=================================================
2020/08/01
China,45+0+23,31Xinjiang,8Liaoning --- so few today ?!
Korea,50 ; Germany,+955=209653,7,R=1.06,1.19
USA=16,09 ; FL=20,39 ; TX=21,47 ; CA=21,22
Germany, total and except hot-spot-regions : http://magictour.free.fr/rkiwee4.GIF
====================================================
2020/08/02
China,49+0+20,30Xinjinag,3Liaoning ; Korea,26 ; Germany,240,-7,R=1.13,1.20
Russia preparing mass vaccination against #coronavirus for October -
========================================================
2020/08/03
China,43+3+11,28Xinjiang,8Liaoning ; Korea,21  ; Germany,509,7,R=1.11,1.09
Xinjiang:1,16,13,17,7,9,18,13,20,22,41,57, 89,96,112,31,30,28,28,22,27
==========================================================
2020/08/04
China,36+1+21,28Xinjiang,2Liaoning ; Korea,72 ; Germany,879,8,R=1.09,1.00
========================================================
2020/08/05
China,27+0+24,22Xinjiang ; Korea,54 ; Germany,741,12,R=1.02,0.99
========================================================
2020/08/06
China,37+0+20,27Xinjiang,3Liaoning ; Korea,95 ; Germany,1045,7,R-0.90,0.86
India,28,22 ; Brazil,19,12 ; USA,11,09
=========================================================
2020/08/07
China,37+2+14,26Xinjiang,1Beijing ; Korea,42 ; Germany,1147,8,R=0.99,1.06
India,29,23 ; Brazil,20,15 ; USA,
====================================================
2020/08/08
China,31+5+14,25Xinjiang ; Korea,86  ; Germany,1122,12,R=1.16,1.16
India,32,22 ; Brazil,20,15 ; Mexico,15,16 ; Indonesia,21,13
----------------------
https://covid19-projections.com/us-fl estimates 21% of Florida had COVID
(or 10% ? @trvrb )
worldometer gives 369 deaths per million population for Florida, 22% of what NY has
with an estimated 14% infected
----------------------------
2.73% =53/1938 seropositive of "probably not exposed"
-------------------------------------
=========================================================
2020/08/09
China,23+0+11,15Xinjiang ; Korea,13 ; Germany,555,1,R=1.32,1.23
ECDC-subnational regions :

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/subnational-14-day-notification-rate-covid-19

from Aug02 : https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/datos_provincias.csv
Spain,daily, 19 regions, daily , last from 0802

420 Euro-regions,weekly,last from 0806 (I should chart these 420 each Thursday)
EU-Gesundheitsministerin Kyriakides hofft, dass in sechs Monaten ein #Corona-Impfstoff zur Verfügung steht.
=============================================================
2020/08/10
China,49+1+31,13Xinjiang ; Korea,16 ; Germany,436,1,R=1.26,1.17
India,31,20 ; Brazil,08,06 ; Mexico,09,06 ; Indonesia,15,11
=======================================================
2020/08/11
China,44+2+17,13Xinjiang ; Korea,71 ; Germany,965,4,R=1.09,1.05
7% to 9% of the total U.S. population has been infected
Russia approves vacccine
======================================================
2020/08/12
China,25+1+20  ; Korea,+57   ; Germany,1226,6,R=0.97,1.04
India,29,23 ;
==================================================
2020/08/13
China,19+1+20,8Xinjiang ; Korea,13 ; Germany,1445,4,R=0.88,1.04
Das RKI rechnet nicht damit, dass ein Impfstoff bereits im Herbst 2020 zur Verfügung stehen wird“:
6% in UK had COVID, 12% in London
=====================================================
2020/08/14
China,30+2+28,8Xinjiang ; Korea,85  ; Germany,1449,14,R=0.91,1.06
India,29,20 ; Brazil,18,11 ; Mexico,15,11 ; USA,11,10 ;
European-regions weekly COVID-charts : http://magictour.free.fr/ecdcw32.GIF
==========================================================
2020/08/15
China,22+1+20,7Xinjiang,1Guangdong ; Korea,156 ; Germany,1415,6,R=1.08,1.14
=================================================================
2020/08/16
China,19+1+16,4Xinjiang ; Korea,267 ! {the last days I got the wong numbers} Germany,625,0,R=1.29,1.23
India,26,21 ; Brazil,13,07 ; Mexico,12,11 ; Spain,23,01

daily new COVID-19 cases in South Korea, Mar01-Aug16
Code: [Select]
1062,600,516,438,518,483,367,
248,131,242,114,110,107,076,
074,084,093,152,087,147,098,
064,076,100,104,091,146,105,
078,125,101,089,086,094,081,
47,47,53,39,27,30,32,
25,27,27,22,22,18,08,
13,09,11,08,06,10,10,
10,14,09,04,09,06,13,
08,03,02,04,12,18,34,
35,27,26,29,27,19,13,
15,13,32,12,20,23,25,
16,19,40,79,58,39,27,
35,38,49,39,39,51,57,
38,38,50,45,56,48,34,
36,34,43,59,49,67,48,
17,46,51,28,39,51,62,
42,43,50,54,63,63,61,
46,44,63,49,45,35,44,
62,33,39,61,60,39,34,
26,45,63,59,41,113,58,
25,28,48,18,36,31,30,
23,34,33,43,20,43,36,
28,34,54,56,103,166,
==============================================================
2020/08/17
China,22+2+37 , 0 local cases ! ; Korea,188  Germany,561,1,R=1.21,1.13
Italy closes Discos , AeroNabs , https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.08.238469v1
Denmark: Face Masks Required On All Public Transit
==============================================================
2020/08/18
China,24+0+17 , 0 local cases ; Korea,235 ; Germany,1390,4,R=1.11,1.04
India,22,19 ; Indonesia,15,13 ; Bangladesh,09,10 ; Mexico,07,05
==============================================================
2020/08/19
China,17+0+14 ; Korea,283 ; Germany,1510,6,R=1.06,1.05
India,21,17 ; USA,07,03
===============================================================
2020/08/20
China,7+2+22 ; Korea,276 ; Germany,1707,10,R=1.03,1.08
India,24,21 ;
Code: [Select]
weekly infction rates per population
-----------------------------------
Spain------,167-320-536-814-1004,1308w
France-----,113-127-171-224-304-432w
Netherlands,051-086-129-225-379-460w
Germany----,060-066-087-111-140-179w
Poland-----,107-115-143-194-239-256w
Croatia----,007-029-128-222-258-282-269-220-200-377w
=============================================
2020/08/21
China,22+0+23 ; Korea,315 ; Germany,1427,5, R=1.04,1.14
 raccoon dogs are susceptible to #SARSCoV2, but have little symptoms
Thus, they come into consideration as intermediate hosts
USA,County-data : only level4 NPIs are effective (stay-at-home-orders - like)
====================================================
2020/08/22
China,22+1+34 ; Korea,334 ; Germany,2034,7,R=1.02,1.12
====================================================
2020/08/23
China,12+2+15 ; Korea,387 ; Germany,782+2,R=1.13,1.16
=====================================================
2020/08/24
China,16+1+27 ; Korea,258 ; Germany,711,3,R=1.08,1.07

12
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: August 24, 2020, 08:26:55 am »
2020/06/29
China,12+4+6,7Beijing ; Korea,41 ; Germany,262,4,R=0.71,0.71
India,39 ; Brazil,30 ; Mexico,19 ; TX,37 ; AZ,55 ; FL,64 ; Pakistan,21 ; Russia,11
ALB,31;AZE,35;BGR,25;BUH,--;CRO,26;ROM,11;UKR,28; POL,06;ISR,27;GRC,05;SLN,07
MDA,19;ARM,31;MKD,30;HUN,01;CYP,--;TUR,07;SRB,18; K OS,38;CZE,#306 !! ;SLK,#14
Czech,#40,47,51,118,126,42,50,63,89,127,93,168,260,305
Slovakia,#1,3,3,4,0,9,0,14,11,0,0,0,18,23,13,14
picture : http://magictour.free.fr/cz-0628.GIF
no 2nd wave, they say. Miners tested.
post-peak in Florida ? http://magictour.free.fr/us-fl.GIF
=================================================
2020/06/30
China,19+1+4,7Beijing,1Shanghai ; Korea,43 ; Germany,498,12,R=0.74,0.63
India,34;Brazil,23;Mexico,18;TX=29,FL=37,AZ=09,OK=18,AR=22,SC=40,CA=   {looks good}
CZE,09,16,24,27 ; AZE,35;UKR,16;BGR,25;ISR,29;Turkey,07;Croatia,13
========================================
2020/07/01
China,3+2+3,3Beijing ; Korea,76 ; Germany,466,12,R=0.83,0.67
India,Brazil,MEX=25,
CZE,?;SLK,01;AZE,35;BGR,33;ISR,33;UKR,16;CRO,19
DAX=12367,DOW=25833,Euro=1.123,Gold=1780,Bitcoin=8161,Oil=41.4,VIX=31.4
cases per milion in June , 10 US-States with no SHO since May01 : 3300
cases per million in June , 11 US-States with SHO until at least May28 : 2100
(only States with population > 2.5M )
approval-rating : 40.5-56.4 (was 45-50 end-Mar)
Czech-cluster = mining , Austria-cluster = religion , Croatia,Slovenia,Serbia = "wave ?"
Moldova = post-peak  http://magictour.free.fr/eu--1.GIF
=====================================
2020/07/02
China,3+0+2,1Beijing ; Korea,54 ; Germany,503,12,R=0.86,0.79

FL,43;CA,29;TX,46;WA,18 ;
==========================================
2020/07/03
China,5+1+4,2Beijing ; Korea, ; Germany,R=0.83,0.83
India,33 ; Brazil,37 ; Mexico,28 ; Texas,47
SVN,08
-------------------
USA : http://magictour.free.fr/us-.GIF
http://magictour.free.fr/uss0702c.GIF
sometimes an increase followed ~10 days after reopening, OH,PA
but it's not conclusive, e.g. MO,... A wave in a neighbor-State seems to be
a bigger risk than reopening
I'm looking for a computer-readable-list, what State/County/City
had what measures at what time
Or better : charts of State/County cases where the dates of measures are marked with symbols
We should know by now what measures work and how well.
------------------------------------------
Germany,Czech,Austria : the wave coming from SE is strangely being ignored.
In the media, in the internet discussion. RKI gives a map here
https://www.rki.de/SharedDocs/Bilder/InfAZ/neuartiges_Coronavirus/Karte_Europa.jpg?__blob=poster&v=61
most Balkan-countries and Russia,Ukraine are left out.
Their limit is 50 cases per 100000 population per week, but this ignores the
dynamic and the time-lag. Only HUN,GRC so far could stop the wave. Which now
starts in SVN
---
The same phenomenon was seen in USA where the 2nd wave started 2-5 weeks ago
but was ignored by neighbor-States. E.g. NY introduced travel restrictions
just some days ago
---------------------------------------
actual case-estimates : https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en/world
Study: Many in US distanced before states mandated it
# why then did all the earlier studies found a big impact of lockdown
in USA ? Did they ignore the pre-lockdown distancing ?
# how did these mobility charts look after re-opening ?
https://rt.live/us/NY
https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/united-states/
Young Americans are spreading the virus fast
=================================================
2020/07/04
China,3+2+4,1Beijing ; Korea,63 ; Germany,422,7, R=0.85,0.86
Slovenia,53,13,40,07,07,85,46,39,71,90,57,25,95,81,130
Hungary,01 ; Greece,05 ; Switzerland,04 ; Austria,06
https://covidly.com/
deaths in USA are still not going up, strange
===================================================
2020/07/05
China,8+1+7,6Beijing ; Korea,61 ; Germany,239,2,R=0.93,0.94
Ind,38 ; Bra,25 ; Mex,28 ; TX,45 ; FL,64 ; CA,26 ; AZ,29 ; SC,45
239 experts from 32 countries : COVID is airborne
deaths/cases are down a lot since Apr19 worlwide: http://magictour.free.fr/wowo2.GIF
===========================================================
2020/07/06
China,4+0+11,1Beijing ; Korea,48 ; Germany,219,4,R=0.96(4d),0.94(7d)
India,38 ; Brazil,18 ; AZE,35 ; Mex=19 ; TX=18 ; FL=53 ; CA,26 ; OH,17 ; US,18
Slovenia,#2,6,1,1,13,7,6,11,14,9,4,15,13,20
Steiermark,#4,1,3,1,9,0,11,8,7,0 ;
Austria,#63,40,113,78,103,114,123,74
Germany,#
301,214,350,318,555,258,348
247,192,378,345,580,770,601,
687,537,503,587,630,477,687,
256,262,498,466,503,446,422,
239,219,390,397,
Switz,#35,22,161,128,95,114,26,1,
Czech,#42,50,63,89,127,93,168,260,305,202,149,92,132,141,121,75,51
USA,CFR-charts : http://magictour.free.fr/us0705.GIF
US-deaths are increasing in VA,SC,TN,AL,FL,AR,TX,AZ
CDC-mobility : https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#mobility
Europe : http://magictour.free.fr/e-0706.GIF
======================================================
2020/07/07
China,8+2+15 ; Korea,44 ; USA, c21,18,15;d52,23,18 ; Germany,390,8, R=0.97,0.89
India,35 ; Brazil,13 ; Mexico,19 ; Croatia,19,29,33,29,18,22

===============================================
2020/07/08
China,7+0+6 ; Korea,63 ; Germany, 397,12, R=0.81,0.84,(from SRB=116 , out=4.2%)
India,32 ; Brazil,28 ; Mexico,24 ; TX,50 ; AZ,36 ; FL,36 ; CA,
=============================================
China,9+0+6 ; Korea,50 ; Germany, 442,12,R=0.70,0.83
TX,47,36 (daily increase of cases and deaths in 0/00) ; FL,48,12 ; CA,42,18 ;
AZ,33,19 ; SC,36,45 ; OH,22,07 ; PA,09,04 ; IL,04,05 ; NY,01,00 ; Mex,26,24
India,32 ; Pakistan,13 ; Brazil,27 ; Greece,05 ; Slovenia,13 ; Australia,15 ; Victoria,#67,124,164,118  ,  156,288
India 2nd day at +3.2%, it used to be 3.6%-3.8% , so post-peak now ?
It peaked 3 weeks ago in Pakistan , in Bangladesh 1 week ago
Birx says U.S. underestimated community spread among young people
Fauci says , it's a false narrative to take comfort in a lower rate of death
France rules out another 'total lockdown' -
==========================================
2020/07/10
China,4+3+3 ; Korea,45 ; Germany,395,6,R=0.66,0.86
USA,19,07 ; India,34 ; Croatia,27 ; Slovenia,07 ; Czech,10 ; Slovakia,10 ; Australia,19
hmm, what's happening in Sweden ? Cases are down. http://magictour.free.fr/eu-sw.GIF
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden
816,490,433,274,57

---------------------------------
uhh, unknown pneumonia in Kazakhstan, much worse than COVID, many cases
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/kazakhstan-covid-19/836487-kazakhstan-coronavirus-covid-19-53-021-cases-264-deaths%C2%A0/page3#post876526
Kazakhstan says : "fake news"
https://anti-corona.kz/kz#data
--------------------------------------
=======================================
2020/07/11
China,2+0+4 ; Korea,35 ; Germany, 378,6, R=0.80,0.90
GRC,05 ; KAZ,31 ; SWE,09 ;
----------------------------------
Daily ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths in Paris negatively correlated to ambient
temperatures, with a time lag. 8 days for admissions and 15 days for deaths. 
=====================================================
3030/07/12
China,7+0+5 ; Korea,44 ; Germany,248,3,R-0.93,0.93 ; SWE,02
-------below numbers are updated daily------------------
India,36,32,32,34,35,34,35,34,32,32,35,36,35,37,38,33
GRC,#28,25,09,43,27,33,50,60,41,31,24,58,27,35,28,19 ; 
USA,15,16,18,21,19,22,20,19,18,19,19,20,22,18,17,15 ;  deaths:2,2,8,7,7,7,6,4,2,6,7,7,7,7,4,3
AUS,16,20,15,19,33,21,26,19,27,24,30,39,18,32,23 ;
HK,08,13,11,18,32,28,20,27,35,32,12,42,35,37,61,39 ;
JPN,5,6,7,8,10,11,12,13,10,10,10,17,20,18,17,16,13,17,25,28
-------------------------
FL,60,17 ; TX,43,33 ; CA,26,14 ; AZ,26,33 ; SC,43,24 ; GA,29,10 ;
==========================================
2020/07/13
China,8+0+6 ; Korea,26 ; Germany,159,1,R=1.04.0.91 , US,19,04
FL, http://magictour.free.fr/fl0712.GIF
US-COVID-death-predictions :
208255 by Nov01 , https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
222100 by Nov01 , https://covid19-projections.com/
68% in NY-Queens with antibodies ?
============================================
2020/07/14
China,3+0+5 ; Korea,33 ; Germany,412,4,R=1.00,0.83
USA,18,02 [weekend?] , India,  Brazil,25,22,13,11


measures-rating : https://github.com/amel-github/covid19-interventionmeasures
====================================================
2020/07/15
China,6+0+3 ; Korea,33 ; Germany,351,3,R=1.06,0.91
FL,33,31 ; TX,41,27 ; CA,22,07 ; AZ,34,41 ; SC,38,24 ; GA,28,09 ; OH,17,02 ; Mex,23,24
===================================================
2020/07/16
China,1+0+2 [!] ; Korea,61 ; Germany,534,7,R=1.02,0.95 ; USA,19,06
 0.1% of transmission occurs 7d, 1% 5d, 9% 3d prior to symptom onset...”
my COVID-charts update : http://magictour.free.fr/e-0716.GIF
=======================================
2020/07/17
China,10+1+5,1Xinjiang   ; Korea,60   ;  Germany,583,4,R=1.10,1.07  ; USA,
==========================================
2020/07/18
China,22+1+14,16Xinjiang ; Korea,39 ; Germany,529,1,R=1.25,1.20 ; USA,22,7 see above(07/12)
Iran estimates it had 25M infections
==================================================
2020/07/19
China,16+1+42,13Xinjiang ; Korea,34 ; Germany,202,1,R=1.42,1.34 ;
HongKong +6.1% !
Fauci on TWiV, hundredth of millions doses in the first quarter of 2021
 > worldwide evidence of low infection rates for smokers.
todays small (weekend) update : http://magictour.free.fr/e-0719.GIF
---------------------------------
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MT729367
partial 221bp sequence from Mexico-Michoacan, Jan.02 (?!?) ; T15297C,T15300A (both new)
-------------------------------------------------
==========================================
2020/07/20
China,22+1+13,17Xinjiang ;  Korea,16? (new format) ; Germany,249,2,R=1.25,1.22 ; USA,17,4
WHO-Chefforscherin: Impfstoff vermutlich Mitte 2021 massenhaft verfügbar
COVID-charts update :http://magictour.free.fr/e-0720.GIF
watching GRC,SLV,LUX,LTU,JAP,AUS,BHS,URU,CHN
===============================================
2020/07/21
China,11+0+6,7Xinjiang ; Korea,20 (71 new quarantines) ; Germany,522,4,R=1.15,1.13
FL,30,18 ; TX,23,16 ; CA,18,01
Oxford vaccine : 1M doses by Sept.
=============================================
2020/07/22
China,delay(rare)...14+0+22,9Xinjiang  ;  Korea,55  ;  Germany,454,5,R-1.08,1.04 ,
India,36,32,32,34,35,34,35,34,32,32,35,36,35,37, 38,33,33,38,40,38,36
GRC,#28,25,09,43,27,33,50,60, 41,31,24,58,
  27,35,28,19,24,11,36,32,33,26,31,27 ;
USA,15,16,18,21,19,22,20,19,18,19,19,20,22, 18,17,15,17,18,18,19,16 ;
USA-deaths:2,2,8,7,7,7,6,4,2,6,7,7, 7,7,4,3,8,8,8,9,7;
AUS,16,20,15,19,33,21,26,19,27,24,30,39, 18,32,23,30,38,32,22,26,32 ;
HK,08,13,11,18,32,28,20,27,35,32,12,42,35,37,61, 39,31,56,55,55,56,51 ;
JPN,5,6,7,8,10,11,12,13,10,10,10,17,20,18,17,16,13 ,
    17,25,28, 21,18,26,22,28,34,30,
FL,26,26 ; TX,28,33 ; CA,24,08 ; AZ,24,48 ; SC,23,34 ; GA,23,25
cases per pop.:FL=52,LA=45,AZ=40,MS=38,AL=38,NV=37,SC=36,GA=34,TX=33,
TN=32,ID=31,AR=23,CA=23,
=========================================
COVID more severe in cold weather !?!
Florida update : http://magictour.free.fr/fl0721.GIF
ecdc-update : http://magictour.free.fr/e-0722.GIF
Actual #Covid19 case count could be 6 to 24 times higher, per CDC study
23% in Delhi with antibodies
========================================
2020/07/23
China,22+3+31,18Xinjiang,1Liaoning ; Korea,60 ; Germany,569,6,R=0.89,1.01
FL=26,27 ; TX=29,47 ; CA=24,08 ; AZ=13,19 ; GA=22,25
only 36 flu-deaths in AUS, was 430 in 2019
==============================================
2020/07/24

China,41+1+43,13Xinjiang,2Liaoning ; Korea,59 ; Germany,815,10,0.93,1.05 ;
US=18,08 ; FL,27,32 ; TX=27,40 ; CA=32,15 ; AZ=16,30 ; GA=28,08

update : Jul24 : http://magictour.free.fr/e-0724.GIF
it still looks as if a 2nd wave could start all over Europe
(except maybe Italy,UK,Sweden)
===============================================
2020/07/25
China,34+1+75,20Xinjiang,9Liaoning ;  !
Korea,+49 ; Germany,781,7,R=1.08,1.16
"sehr beunruhigend, Familienfeiern,Urlaubsrueckkehrer",keine Grossquelle
FL,32,24 ;
Spain says they have a 2nd wave :
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_170_COVID-19.pdf
Belgium's #Covid19 caseload increased by 89% within a week
Trump approval rating : 40.4-55.5
DAX=12842,DOW=26517,Euro=1.164,Bitcoin=8235,Gold=1901,oil=43.7
my COVID-charts Jul25 : http://magictour.free.fr/e-0725.GIF
==========================================
2020/07/26
China,46+2+68,22Xinjiang,12Liaoning ; Korea,Germany,305,0,R=1.24,1.25
===============================================
2020/07/27
China,61+0+44,41Xinjiang,14Liaoning,2Jilin ;
Korea,15 ; Germany,340,0,R=1.22,1.15

India,36,32,32,34,35,34,35,34,32,32,35,36,35,37, 38,33,33,38,40,38,36
GRC,#28,25,09,43,27,33,50,60, 41,31,24,58,
  27,35,28,19,24,11,36,32,33,26,31,27 ;
USA,15,16,18,21,19,22,20,19,18,19,19,20,22, 18,17,15,17,18,18,19,16 ;
USA-deaths:2,2,8,7,7,7,6,4,2,6,7,7, 7,7,4,3,8,8,8,9,7;
AUS,16,20,15,19,33,21,26,19,27,24,30,39, 18,32,23,30,38,32,22,26,32 ;
HK,08,13,11,18,32,28,20,27,35,32,12,42,35,37,61, 39,31,56,55,55,56,51 ;
JPN,5,6,7,8,10,11,12,13,10,10,10,17,20,18,17,16,13 ,
    17,25,28, 21,18,26,22,28,34,30,
FL,23,13 ; TX,15,31 ; CA,19,09
===================================
2020/07/28
China,68+0+34,57Xinjiang,6Liaoning,1Beijing ,
Xinjiang:1,16,13,17,7,9,18,13,20,22,41,57, 89,96,112,
Korea,102 (!)   ; Germany,633,4,R=1.28,1.10
Belgium introduces strict #Covid19 rules in bid to prevent new general lockdown -
Europe braces for second wave of #COVID19
my daily update : http://magictour.free.fr/e-0728.GIF
concern about wave2 in Europe, but the charts don't look so bad.
Just a small increase after weeks of almost zero, it might be pushed back or
delayed as in Slovenia,Greece
=========================================
2020/07/29
China,101+0+27,89Xinjiang,8Liaoning,1Beijing ; Korea,62 ; Germany,684,6,R=1.25,1.12
FL,21,31 ; TX,22,29 ; CA,15,03 ; OH,15,11 ; US,13,08 ;
MEX,13,08 ; BRA,10,08 ; IND,33,20 ;
Half of Mumbai’s slum residents have had #coronavirus

=============================================
2020/07/30
China,102+1+21,96Xinjiang,5Liaoning,1Beijing ; Korea,63 ;Germany,delay,902,6,R=1.14,1.13
MEX,14,11 ; BRA,28,18 ; IND,33,23 ; US,14,08
7.1% of Britons have been previously infected
 T-cell response to SARS-CoV-2 can be due to crossreactive ‘common cold’ coronavirus exposure.
big underreporting of deaths in Delhi {and probably whole India ?!}
===========================================
2020/07/31
China,127+1+11,112Xianjiang,11Liaoning ; Korea,51 ;  Germany,delayed again,870,7,1.02,1.17
MEX,19,14 ; BRA,IND,34,23 ; USA,15,10
0724 : US=18,08 ; FL=27,32 ; TX=27,40 ; CA=32,15 ; AZ=16,30 ; GA=28,08
0731 : US=15,10 ; FL=22,40 ; TX=22,14 ; CA=19,23 ; AZ=15,50 ; GA=22,08
7days : US=16,08 ; FL=24,25 ; TX=19,35+ ; CA=20,19 ; AZ=16,25 ; GA=22,13

13
vaccine / Re: takes over a year (Jan.2020)
« on: August 02, 2020, 12:46:25 am »
Aug02 , > Russia preparing mass vaccination against #coronavirus for October -
teachers and doctors first, Fauci concerned they are not testing enough
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jul28 , Nach den Plänen von Biontech sollen im Erfolgsfall bis Ende des Jahres zunächst 100 Millionen
Impfstoffdosen weltweit geliefert werden. Bis Ende 2021 streben Biontech und der
US-Pharmakonzern Pfizer an, mehr als 1,3 Milliarden weitere Dosen bereitzustellen.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug03
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2020/08/02/start-vaccinating-now/
We Should Consider Starting Covid-19 Vaccinations Now
Steven Salzberg
 > why not start administering millions of doses right now? We should. [without phase 3]
{the risk from side effects being lower than the risk from COVID due to vaccine-delays}

# I was wondering, why this hadn't been widely discussed already since February.
# Also, the number of people/animals in the phases and the number of phases,
# that should all have been optimized for this situation
# and not just been taken from previous regulations
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug.09
EU-Gesundheitsministerin Kyriakides hofft, dass in sechs Monaten ein #Corona-Impfstoff zur Verfügung steht.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug.11
Russland hat einen Impfstoff gegen das #Coronavirus für die breite Verwendung zugelassen.
Die Testphase wurde allerdings verkürzt.
 Russia registers a COVID-vaccine for brought usage.
The testphase has been shortened.
Putin's daughter is already vaccinated with 2 shots
Russia hoped to launch mass production within weeks and turn out “several million”
doses per month by 2021.
# So, presumably they have not millions of doses this year and they are
# basically doing what others call "phase 3" although probably
# with more people
HCWs can volunteer to get it first
--------------------------------------------
Russia claimed today it had approved a COVID-19 vaccine
- tested in just 76 people
- may be given to “a small number of citizens from vulnerable groups,”
- cannot be used widely until 2021
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-press-release
-------------------------------------------
Brazil and Israel are interested in the vax (to buy it ?!)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug13
Das RKI rechnet nicht damit, dass ein Impfstoff bereits im Herbst 2020 zur Verfügung stehen wird“:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Curevac schließt die beschleunigte Zulassung des möglichen Corona-Impfstoffes nicht aus.
Politische Entscheidung.
Die Ergebnisse der kürzlich gestarteten klinischen Erprobung des Impfstoffkandidaten
sollen demnach im Herbst veröffentlicht werden. Die Zulassung sei nach bisheriger
Planung für die erste Hälfte kommenden Jahres geplant.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

14
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: July 14, 2020, 07:47:10 pm »


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
Spain : https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_74_COVID-19.pdf
Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
US: https://covidtracking.com/api  https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
ESP: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/agregados.csv
OxCGRT-Index : https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/raw/master/data/OxCGRT_latest.csv

-------------------------------------------------
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0608.GIF
----- update, cases only : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0705.GIF
----- weekly, by cases per pop : http://magictour.free.fr/wo-18.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0531.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0612.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0626.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
UK : http://magictour.free.fr/engl0520.GIF
euromomo : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo21.GIF
===================================
2020/06/22
China,18,2,7,99Beijing,2Hebei ; Korea,17 ; Germany,537,3,R=2.88(2.03)
India,39;Brazi,16;Chile,20;Peru,14;Mexico,30;Nigeria,22;PAK,29;BGD,32,w18616,21751,24786
MDA=29;BGR,28;MKD,20;ISR,14;ALB,38;UKR,21;ROM=12,AZE=38;ARM=31
Trump approval rating 41.4:55.2 , down from 45.8:49.7 in Mar which was his best so far
==================================
2020/06/23
China,22+2+7,13Beijing ; Korea,46 ; Germany,503,10,R=2.76(1.82)
India,36 ; Brazil,16,Chile,20,Mexico,25,MDA,29,ALB,17,AZE,38,ARM,31
vaccine overview : https://www.winway.me/health-remedies/astrazeneca-taps-catalent-for-covid-19-vaccine-finishing-packaging-at-italian-plant/
still unclear whether AstaZeneca delivers _by_ yearend or only starts delivering then
Germany with and without hotspots : http://magictour.free.fr/rkiwee4.GIF
There is a 2 month gap between the between the European genomes and the Beijing outbreak.
 Beijing market outbreak ‘coming to an end’, health expert says
 >90% with steep declines antibodies within 2 to 3 months
50% positivity-rate in Mexico
====================================
2020/06/24
China,12+4+3,7Beijing,2Hebei  ; Korea,51   ; Germany,587,19,R=2.02(1.67)
Mexico,34 ; Brazil,36 ; Chile,15 ; AZE,38 ; ALB,26 ; BGR,20 ; Ind,35
DEU,w3792,3026,2515,2296,4023
FRA,w2376,5290*,3340*,3184,3378
SPA,w4222,3657,2121,2378,2344
NLA,w1329,1069,1256,1184,635?
ITA,w3856,2960,2046,1939,1333
POL,w2807,2321,3165,2635,2332
CZE,w480,313,360,396,474
AUT,w268,271,213,180,245
BEL,w1664,1160,822,718,655
CHE,w,143,113,114,158,186
DEN,w385,307,267,249,311
UK-,w14370,14797,11155,8996,8074
no 2nd wave in central and western and southwestern Europe
========================================
2020/06/25
China,19+0+1,13Beijing,1Hebei ; Korea,28 ; Germany,630,13,R=0.72,1.17 (4day and 7day average)
India,36 ; Brazil,37 ; Mexico,28 ; Texas,46 ;
ALB,33;AZE,38;ARM,31;MKD,26;BGR,31;MDA,29;GRE,05;Turkey,08;ROM,13
70% of infections in Lombardia asymptomatic
42% in Ischgl have antibodies
=================================================
2020/06/26
Cina,13+3+5,11Beijing ; Korea,     ;Germany,477,21,R=0.59,1.11
India,37;Brazil,37;Mexico,31;Texas,35,43,36,29,48,46,48
ALB,47;AZE,38;BGR,39;Bosn,20;Croatia,40;ROM,17;UKR,25;POL,09;ISR,25;GRE,05
WHO warns about increased spread in 11 European countries:
Armenia, Sweden, Moldova, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Kosovo.
{add Bulgaria,Romania,Croatia - see above}
==================================
2020/06/27
China,21+1+12,17Beijing ; Korea,51 ; Germany,R=0.57,1.02
India,37;Brazil,33;MEX,27;TEX,43;
ALB,35;AZE,38;BGR,39,BUH,20;CRO,23;ROM,16,UKR,28; POL,09;ISR,16;GRE,05;
MDA,29;ARM,31;MKD,29;HUN,01;CYP,00;TUR,07;SER,08; KOS,51
====================================
2020/06/28
China,17+1+7,14Beijing ; Korea,62 ; Germany,256,3,R=0.62,0.83
India,38 ; Brazil,38 ; Chile,18 ; Mexico,21 ; Texas,42
ALB,27;AZE,35;BGR,39;BUH,20;CRO,34;ROM,13;UKR,28;POL,10;ISR,18;GRC,05
MDA,29;ARM,31;MKD,26;HUN,03;CYP,00;TUR,07;SRB,08;KOS,38;CZE,05
Germany,Czech back to normal. Croatia,Bulgaria,Ukraine up

15
vaccine / Re: takes over a year (Jan.2020)
« on: June 24, 2020, 07:12:59 am »
22.05.2020 · “This contract with AstraZeneca is a major milestone in Operation Warp
Speed’s work toward a safe, effective, widely available vaccine by 2021,” U.S. Health
Secretary Alex Azar said.

Operation Warp Speed Aims to Deliver 300M Vaccine Doses by January.

A potential coronavirus vaccine developed by French drugmaker Sanofi and Britain's
GlaxoSmithKline is expected to be approved by the first half of 2021.

Sanofi said it had capacity to produce up to 1 billion doses a year

Shionogi and the NIID aim to put the vaccine on the market in fall 2021.

Pfizer/BioNTech 2M per dec31, 200M in 2021

AS, May, total capacity sourced for one billion doses through 2020 and into 2021;

AstraZeneca (ticker: AZN) has arranged for enough capacity to supply one billion doses of the vaccine in 2020 and 2021

May 21 (Reuters) - AstraZeneca expects to be able to deliver a billion doses of a possible
COVID-19 vaccine this year and next

AstraZeneca says it has secured capacity to produce 2 billion doses

84-90% of vaccine candidates fail (have "attrition") in Phase III clinical trials[4][54]

Walter Ricciardi,WHO : there is quite a strong probability that the vaccine will work

Sanofi would be able to supply up to 360 million doses of its mRNA vaccine annually

In April, Sanofi said it had manufacturing capacity for 600 million doses for its recombinant
vaccine, with the ambition to double production by mid-2021.

Sanofi said it had capacity to produce up to 1 billion doses a year

23.06.2020 · Sanofi said it had capacity to produce up to 1 billion doses a year of its recombinant
vaccine, and that it would be able to supply up to 360 million doses of its mRNA vaccine annually.

"We believe the probability of success is high enough that we are willing to support the
manufacturing at-risk," Dr. Hatchett said.

 AstraZeneca said it reached a second agreement with the Serum Institute of India to provide
one billion doses for low and middle-income countries, including 400 million by the end of this year.

Last month, AstraZeneca agreed to provide 100 million doses to the U.K., with an initial
supply of 30 million doses per September.

Initial supplies of any successful vaccine are expected to be limited. Some drugmakers have
sought to set up manufacturing capacity in multiple countries, in case individual countries
impose export bans on any successful vaccines produced within their borders.

June 04, 2020

 Jun 16 ,  HHS says vaccine likely by January

 when a safe and effective vaccine will be developed and distributed, and on Tuesday, the
Department of Health and Human Services said that January 2021 is a likely timeframe for
when that might happen.
The projection is based on the current efforts of HHS' Operation Warp Speed, an initiative that
aims to deliver 300 million doses

 stay-at-home and other social-distancing orders have cost the country an estimated $25 billion per day,

 We cannot promise a 100% chance of success, but we've maximized the probability of success," said Mango.

Bourla made the decision to spend $1 billion on the project, so if the vaccine works, it can be
made available this autumn.

At current rates, the US economy is losing about $40 billion a week.


--------------------
STAT : 2 doses may be needed


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