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**actual epidemic charts / Re: case numbers**

« **on:**February 14, 2020, 06:43:20 pm »

Deaths and severe cases doubling period roughly 3 days during the early, exponential phase.

I think this gives us a good, rather unbiased proxy of actual epidemic doubling time.

After all, when assessing doubling periods it does not matter if there is systemtic under-counting of cases (i.e. if cases are off by a certain fixed factor) the doubling time will be the same.

Also consistent with latest research.

Former research (Leung et. al) used to rely on case doubling estimates of 7 days.

Many people have difficulty understanding nature of exponential growth.

Case doubling of 3 days, means: epidemic is one thousnad times larger after just 4 weeks and one million times larger after 8 weeks.

I think this gives us a good, rather unbiased proxy of actual epidemic doubling time.

After all, when assessing doubling periods it does not matter if there is systemtic under-counting of cases (i.e. if cases are off by a certain fixed factor) the doubling time will be the same.

Also consistent with latest research.

Former research (Leung et. al) used to rely on case doubling estimates of 7 days.

Many people have difficulty understanding nature of exponential growth.

Case doubling of 3 days, means: epidemic is one thousnad times larger after just 4 weeks and one million times larger after 8 weeks.