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Messages - gsgs

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1
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: May 18, 2023, 02:16:01 pm »
=======================
most longer links here are abbreviated and thus not working
for some full links (without description) see 2 posts ago
========================================

forecast of the coming wave
https://epiforecasts.io/uk-challenge/
---------------

=====VE-links======

CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...ugh-cases.html
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra...vaccine-status
https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-S...-and/3rge-nu2a
2d : https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3rge-...sType=DOWNLOAD
3d : https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/d6p8-...sType=DOWNLOAD
4d : https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/ukww-...sType=DOWNLOAD

SD-County: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/conte...oV/status.html
LA-County: http://www.ph.lacounty.gov/media/Cor...-dashboard.htm
OK: https://oklahoma.gov/covid19/newsroo...ce-report.html
AR: https://www.healthy.arkansas.gov/pro...vid-19-reports
Oregon weekly reports :https://digital.osl.state.or.us/isla...ect/osl:944807
Oregon, weekly breakthrough reports :https://digital.osl.state.or.us/isla...t/osl%3A968511
VA: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronav...nation-status/
DC : https://coronavirus.dc.gov/data/vaccination
CA: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID...D19-Cases.aspx
https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/cov...infection-data
USA weekly reports by State : https://healthdata.gov/browse?tags=covid-19-spr&page=2
UT: https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/risk.html
MS: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static...9,420,971.html
SC: https://scdhec.gov/covid19/covid-19-...lly-vaccinated
VT: https://dfr.vermont.gov/about-us/covid-19/modeling
WA-Clark: https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/f...s_09.08.21.JPG
WA: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Doc...oughReport.pdf
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Doc...Vaccinated.pdf
NY: https://projects.thecity.nyc/2020_03_covid-19-tracker/
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/...e_inline#daily (wait)
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/co...akthrough-data
https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data
https://github.com/nychealth/coronav.../master/trends
WI : https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-...ine-status.htm
MN : https://www.health.state.mn.us/disea...stats/vbt.html
FRA: https://covidtracker.fr/vaximpact/
https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv...?text=Covid-19

Wien : https://farayusti.blogspot.com/2021/...fstatus-2.html
Ontario.CA: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covi...ata-in-ontario
BC-CA : https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2021/10...y-october-7th/
Manitoba,
https://geoportal.gov.mb.ca/apps/man...status/explore

England: https://www.gov.uk/government/public...llance-reports
https://www.gov.uk/government/public...ical-briefings
Scotland : https://publichealthscotland.scot/pu...eases?id=20580
Wales : https://www2.nphs.wales.nhs.uk/CommunitySurveillanceDocs.nsf/3dc04669c9e1eaa880257062003b246b/a4f536f72da3962b8025875a0031b3c8/$FILE/Survey%20of%20vaccine%20status%20in%20cases%20and% 20hospital%20inpatients.pdf

ICE: https://www.covid.is/data
Italy : https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronav...veglianza-dati

Sonora : https://socoemergency.org/emergency/...navirus-cases/

---------------------------------

https://viableopposition.blogspot.co...accinated.html

new DE-dashboard : (kein download der Daten)
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...tionFile#/home

https://www.coronaheadsup.com


https://medicalxpress.com/latest-news/


http://www.histpop.org/ohpr/servlet/... &c=169243#400

http://www.histpop.org/ohpr/servlet/...=545&pageseq=3


https://www.healthcareitnews.com/new...-vaccine-brand

CDC vacc. https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/CO...gxj9-t96f/data

COVID symptoms, UK https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-top-5-covid-symptoms

------------------------------------------
blog: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.subs...-ride-the-wave

==================================
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/20221...c964791c.shtml
https://wp.m.163.com/163/page/news/v..._nw_=1&_anw_=1


2022-12-03,CHN 4213,GD 1868,BJ 708,YN 130,CQ 260,HUB 015,FU 086,SI 188,HUN 066
2022-12-13,CHN 2291,GD 1044,BJ 476,YN 016,CQ 179,HUB 002,FU 070,SI 073,HUN 001


时新型冠状病毒感染疫情最新情况
https://m.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/yl/hrb_11806/jszl/
http://magictour.free.fr/chn31.txt

2
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: May 18, 2023, 02:14:15 pm »
=======================
most longer links here are abbreviated and thus not working
for some full links (without description) see previous post
========================================

 copies of these posts readable also by non-members are here :
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/nc...msg239/#msg239
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/t...hs-per-million
ECDC,varants : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public...covid-19-eueea
https://www.who.int/emergencies/dise...ronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
South Africa : https://gis.nicd.ac.za/portal/apps/o...7606c1248578ff
https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-...datcov-report/
Denmark : https://www.sst.dk/da/corona/tal-og-overvaagning
https://www.sst.dk/en/English/Corona...ics-and-charts
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/...a-province.csv
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/...ta-regioni.csv

twitter thread about data,dashboards : https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/s...40870108569601
Spain : https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesional...5_COVID-19.pdf
-Fri: https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Ser...sCOVID-19.aspx
Madrid,Wed: https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/d...anal_covid.pdf
https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/d...am_covid19.pdf
Aragon : https://transparencia.aragon.es/COVID19
https://www.aragon.es/documents/2012...provincias.csv
Catalunya: https://analisi.transparenciacatalunya.cat/
Russia: https://стопкоронавирус.рф/information/

France: https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets...de-covid-19/#_
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets...ques-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets...de-covid-19/#_
https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker...m_medium=email

Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...te/Gesamt.html
impf : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt...t-Impfung.html
hosp : https://github.com/robert-koch-insti...isierungen.csv


https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...te/Gesamt.html
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/...te/Gesamt.html
https://corona.rki.de {no longer works , Oct19}
mobility : https://www.covid-19-mobility.org/current-mobility/
India: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
https://twitter.com/outbreak_india
Maharashtra : https://www.covid19maharashtragov.in/mh-covid/dashboard
UK dashb. (no longer updated) : https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
ECDC subnational : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public...-rate-covid-19
ECDC subnational weekly : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public...-rate-covid-19
ECDC,hosp. : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/public...pancy-covid-19
by age : https://osf.io/43ucn/download
DE: https://www.arcgis.com/sharing/rest/...eb6c7ca74/data
Madrid: https://datos.comunidad.madrid/catal...6-fa97691a2d59

US, by County : https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...-19-spread-map
https://usafacts.org/visualizations/...charles-county
CDC big file (10GB) : https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillan...n8mc-b4w4/data
US,vax by County : https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/8xkx-...sType=DOWNLOAD
Examples
US by State, charts : https://newsnodes.com/us_state/MO
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
US,deaths : https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/y5bj-...ue% 20target=
USA weekly deaths by cause 2014-2019
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3yf8-...ue&format=true
USA provisional deaths 2020-2022
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/muzy-...ue&format=true
USA deaths by 12quarter,22cause,age+State+ : https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/NCHS-VSRR-...sele/489q-934x
OxCGRT-Index : https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-poli...GRT_latest.csv
F,deaths : https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques...mmaire=4487854
E,deaths : https://momo.isciii.es/public/momo/data
weekly : https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/dlgExport.htm?t=35177&L=0

spain ; https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
Belgium : https://t.co/8XtR9D5IKV?amp=1
Vienna : https://coronavirus.wien.gv.at/site/...hlen-aus-wien/
Argentina : https://www.argentina.gob.ar/salud/e.../boletines2020
El Paso : http://epstrong.org/
owid,much data : https://github.com/owid/covid-19-dat...er/public/data
owid,all : https://covid.ourworldindata.org/dat...covid-data.csv


WHO-weekly : https://www.who.int/publications/m
ARD : https://www.tagesschau.de/thema/liveblog/
NDR : https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/
WDR : https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/them...s-nrw-100.html
CDS : http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/...storical-data/
UK: https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/c...vid-19--deaths
PHE: https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...llance-reports
London : http://sonorouschocolate.com/covid19...ndonIndicators
Ireland : https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/4b5...ess-briefings/
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/...%20website.pdf
https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/global/

-------------------------------------------------
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0608.GIF
----- update, cases only : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0705.GIF
----- weekly, by cases per pop : http://magictour.free.fr/wo-18.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0531.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0612.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0626.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
UK : http://magictour.free.fr/engl0520.GIF
euromomo : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo21.GIF

--------------------------------
US-Counties with a (2-dose-)vaccination rate of 60% had 40% fewer cases
and 65% fewer deaths
in this delta-wave than Counties with a vaccination rate of 30%

http://magictour.free.fr/coul5g3.GIF


County-cases correlate by -0.17 and deaths by -0.42 with vaccinationrate
http://magictour.free.fr/coulg1.GIF


130000 deaths in USA in this wave so far
I estimate it would have been 250000-400000 without vaccination
and 50000-70000 with Vermont-like vaccination everywhere

going from 40% fully vaxed to 50% fully vaxed gave a reduction in 18% of cases
and 35% of deaths in this wave for an average US-County.
Or (fully) vaxing 700 US people saved one life in this wave

c
Last edited by gsgs; 10-25-2022 at 08:23 AM.

3
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« on: May 18, 2023, 02:11:47 pm »
links , 2023-05-17

https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv


https://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=79397&page=2

https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ncov-discussion/updates/msg239/#msg239

spain: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_495_COVID-19.pdf

https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx

https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/epid/informe_epidemiologico_semanal_covid.pdf

https://gis.nicd.ac.za/portal/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/15eb33988f104b73867606c1248578ff

https://www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

https://стопкоронавирус.рф/information/


https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/donnees-hospitalieres-relatives-a-lepidemie-de-covid-19/#_

https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-relatives-aux-resultats-des-tests-virologiques-covid-19/

https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/taux-dincidence-de-lepidemie-de-covid-19/#_

https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-france/?utm_source=sendinblue&utm_campaign=Newsletter_CovidTracker_11&utm_medium=email

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/Impfen/ImpfungenAZ/COVID-19/Monatsbericht-Impfung.html

https://github.com/robert-koch-institut/COVID-19-Hospitalisierungen_in_Deutschland/blob/master/Aktuell_Deutschland_COVID-19-Hospitalisierungen.csv

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

https://www.covid19maharashtragov.in/mh-covid/dashboard

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/subnational-14-day-notification-rate-covid-19

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/weekly-subnational-14-day-notification-rate-covid-19

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-data-hospital-and-icu-admission-rates-and-current-occupancy-covid-19

https://osf.io/43ucn/download

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spread-map/state/missouri/county/st-charles-county

https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/COVID-19-Case-Surveillance-Public-Use-Data-with-Ge/n8mc-b4w4/data

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/8xkx-amqh/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD

https://newsnodes.com/us_state/MO

https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/y5bj-9g5w/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD&bom=true&format=true%20target=

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3yf8-kanr/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD&bom=true&format=true

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/muzy-jte6/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD&bom=true&format=true

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/NCHS-VSRR-Quarterly-provisional-estimates-for-sele/489q-934x

https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4487988?sommaire=4487854

https://www.ine.es/jaxiT3/dlgExport.htm?t=35177&L=0

https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data.csv

https://epiforecasts.io/uk-challenge/

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status

https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/3rge-nu2a

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3rge-nu2a/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/d6p8-wqjm/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD

https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/ukww-au2k/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD

https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Post-Vaccine-COVID19-Cases.aspx

https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/covid-19-post-vaccination-infection-data

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf

https://projects.thecity.nyc/2020_03_covid-19-tracker/

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page?mod=article_inline#daily

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data

https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data

https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/tree/master/trends

https://covidtracker.fr/vaximpact/

https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/recherche?text=Covid-19

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings

https://www.covid.is/data

https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/show-all-releases?id=20580

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati

http://www.histpop.org/ohpr/servlet/TOC2?ResourceType=Census&ResourceType=Legislation&ResourceType=Essays&ResourceType=Registrar%20General&ResourceType=TNA&SearchTerms=1918&simple=yes&path=Results/Registrar%20General&active=yes&treestate=expandnew&titlepos=0&mno=539&tocstate=expandall&tocseq=400&display=sections&display=tables&display=pagetitles&c=169243#400

https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-Group-/gxj9-t96f/data

https://m.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/yl/hrb_11806/jszl/

http://magictour.free.fr/chn31.txt



==================================================

4
vaccine / Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« on: June 04, 2022, 10:36:34 am »
Italy update :
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_31-maggio-2022.pdf

reinfections back to 6% (figura 21)

VE(3dose; case,hosp,ICU,death) now at 08,70,74,84
,10 weeks ago it was 48,86,91,93

case , 27,08,22, 00,00,00, 44,46,55
hosp , 54,28,38, 66,58,58, 82,80,72
ICU  , 67,47,41, 74,71,50, 84,86,74
death, 58,27,51, 72,76,78, 89,88,87

VE in % in France during the omicron wave , 2022-12-13 - 2022-05-22
numbers estimated from the graphics at
https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/communique-de-presse/statut-vaccinale-des-personnes-testees-ou-hospitalisees-avec-covid-19-derriere


2dose , 3dose>3m , 3dose<3m ; 40-59,60-79,80+

average of the 3 agegroups :

        2,3>,3<
---------------
case , 19,00,48
hosp , 40,61,78
ICU  , 52,65,81
death, 45,75,88


5
vaccine / Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« on: May 02, 2022, 12:01:36 pm »
updates , May 2022 :

Italy ; http://magictour.free.fr/ita-2427.GIF
Germany : http://magictour.free.fr/rki2w17.GIF
France : https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2022-04/3_4.png
Ontario :
California :
New York :


current VE in % , 2022-05-01
location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death
Code: [Select]
DEU,2  ,--,35,70,80,80
DEU,3  ,--,26,71,87,87
UK ,3  ,14,--,84,--,93
UK ,2  ,05,--,35,--,59
ITA,3  ,62,--,81,87,91
iTA,2  ,66,--,68,74,74
NY ,2-3,68,--,88,--,--
ICE,3  ,39,--,17,--,--
ICE,2  ,-19,-,71,--,--     during the wave :
CA ,3  ,76,--,87,--,94     80,90,94
CA ,2-?,81,--,82,--,87     65,83,87
ONT,2-3,00,--,56,76,--
US14, 2,--,--,75,--,--
US14, 3,--,--,92,--,--
FRA,3  ,57,--,80,86,91
CDC,2-3,66,--,--,--,90
QAT,  2,00,--,--,--,--
QAT,  3,52,--,--,--,--
VT ,  3,  ,  ,73,  ,
VT ,  2,  ,  ,47,  ,
MS ,  3,  ,  ,  ,  ,74
CHL,  2,
CHL,  3,

EU3,  3,58,33,81,88,89

CA ,3  ,80,--,89,--,92   omicron wave
CA ,2-?,70,--,82,--,85
VA ,3  ,91,--,80,--,92   omicron wave
VA ,2-?,60,--,65,--,85
OR ,3  ,66,--,--,--,--   omicron wave
OR ,2-?,33,--,--,--,--


location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death


Hongkong , 180d after last dose B=BNT,S=Sinovac
B--,--,--,--,--,77
S--,--,--,--,--,61
BB-,01,--,60,--,70(90)
SS-,01,--,60,--,70(80)
BBB,77,--,94,--,95
BBS,44,--,80,--,95
SSB,29,--,80,--,90
SSS,08,--,80,--,90




================================================

VE-links
CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/3rge-nu2a
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3rge-nu2a/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD
SD-County: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html
LA-County: http://www.ph.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/reopening-dashboard.htm
OK: https://oklahoma.gov/covid19/newsroom/weekly-epidemiology-and-surveillance-report.html
AR: https://www.healthy.arkansas.gov/programs-services/topics/covid-19-reports
Oregon weekly reports :https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl:944807
Oregon, weekly breakthrough reports :https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl%3A968511
VA: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/
DC : https://coronavirus.dc.gov/data/vaccination
CA: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Post-Vaccine-COVID19-Cases.aspx
https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/covid-19-post-vaccination-infection-data
USA weekly reports by State : https://healthdata.gov/browse?tags=covid-19-spr&page=2
UT: https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/risk.html
MS: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,23549,420,971.html
SC: https://scdhec.gov/covid19/covid-19-data/cases-hospitalizations-deaths-among-not-fully-vaccinated
VT: https://dfr.vermont.gov/about-us/covid-19/modeling
WA-Clark: https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/media/image/2021-09/case_rate_by_vax_status_09.08.21.JPG
WA: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/420-339-VaccineBreakthroughReport.pdf
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf
NY: https://projects.thecity.nyc/2020_03_covid-19-tracker/
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page?mod=article_inline#daily  (wait)
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data
https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data
https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/tree/master/trends
WI : https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-status.htm
MN : https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html
FRA: https://covidtracker.fr/vaximpact/
https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/recherche?text=Covid-19

Ontario.CA: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario
BC-CA : https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2021/10/bc-health-officials-report-624-new-cases-of-covid-19-on-thursday-october-7th/
Manitoba,
https://geoportal.gov.mb.ca/apps/manitoba-covid-19-cases-and-risk-by-vaccination-status/explore

England: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings
Scotland : https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/show-all-releases?id=20580
Wales : https://www2.nphs.wales.nhs.uk/CommunitySurveillanceDocs.nsf/3dc04669c9e1eaa880257062003b246b/a4f536f72da3962b8025875a0031b3c8/$FILE/Survey%20of%20vaccine%20status%20in%20cases%20and%20hospital%20inpatients.pdf

ICE: https://www.covid.is/data
Italy : https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati

CDC vacc.   https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-Group-/gxj9-t96f/data


6
vaccine / Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« on: April 12, 2022, 01:51:09 am »
basic vaccinations (2dose) seem to play a bigger role wrt. deaths than boosters
almost no effect on case-counts  (urban USA, omicron-wave)
http://magictour.free.fr/cou23a.GIF
550 Counties with population >100000, making 71% of the US-population
(also excluding the big rural.urban differences of omicron)
taking % of elderly boosted (19%-94%, omitting 9 Counties with extreme values,
and some Sates not available, e.g. Florida)
average of Counties, not weighted by population
(focussing on County policy , no magnitude-bias)
gives deathrates
49,60,60,69,60,64,59,62,50,40
for 0-10%,...,90%-100% of elderly boosted (average of 2 values in Dec.and Feb),
I forgot the exact dates)
cases and deaths from usafacts, vax from CDC)

(processed) datafiles :
cou23a.r1
cou23b.r1
result-file : cou23.l2


7
actual epidemic charts / Re: 2020 USA mortality statistics
« on: April 10, 2022, 02:54:24 pm »
hare are secondary conditions from US-COVID-deaths in 2020
which are more frequent than those from other causes :

frequency-ratio * 100, ICD10-code , description
------------------------------------------------------------
827,J80 Adult respiratory distress syndrome
792,J93 Pneumothorax
746,J11 Influenza, virus not identified
616,B34 Viral infection of unspecified site
602,J18 Pneumonia, organism unspecified
497,J15 Bacterial pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
429,G30 Alzheimer's disease
400,J45 Asthma
393,J96 Respiratory failure, not elsewhere classified
331,N28 Other disorders of kidney and ureter, not elsewhere classified
324,J98 Other respiratory disorders
303,F03 Unspecified dementia
303,G20 Parkinson's disease
297,C91 Lymphoid leukaemia
292,N17 Acute renal failure
286,J12 Viral pneumonia, not elsewhere classified
277,E66 Obesity
262,G31 Other degenerative diseases of nervous system, not elsewhere classified
258,C90 Multiple myeloma and malignant plasma cell neoplasms
256,E14 Unspecified diabetes mellitus
233,J84 Other interstitial pulmonary diseases
216,R09 Other symptoms and signs involving the circulatory and respiratory systems
215,E11 Non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus
214,B99 Other and unspecified infectious diseases
200,A41 Other septicaemia
199,R68 Other general symptoms and signs
197,C34 Malignant neoplasm of bronchus and lung
192,F20 Schizophrenia
185,M06 Other rheumatoid arthritis
182,R73 Elevated blood glucose level
178,R06 Abnormalities of breathing
172,E88 Other metabolic disorders
171,N19 Unspecified renal failure
165,E87 Other disorders of fluid, electrolyte and acid-base balance
163,J44 Other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
159,R00 Abnormalities of heart beat
154,N18 Chronic renal failure
149,I64 Stroke, not specified as haemorrhage or infarction
147,I21 Acute myocardial infarction
144,D68 Other coagulation defects
141,I26 Pulmonary embolism
141,E03 Other hypothyroidism
141,D69 Purpura and other haemorrhagic conditions
140,N40 Hyperplasia of prostate
139,A49 Bacterial infection of unspecified site
136,I10 Essential (primary) hypertension
134,G47 Sleep disorders
134,I80 Phlebitis and thrombophlebitis
133,F01 Vascular dementia
132,C61 Malignant neoplasm of prostate
130,I13 Hypertensive heart and renal disease
129,C50 Malignant neoplasm of breast
128,I25 Chronic ischaemic heart disease
128,I12 Hypertensive renal disease
127,I11 Hypertensive heart disease

8
actual epidemic charts / 2020 USA mortality statistics
« on: April 10, 2022, 02:45:45 pm »
update 2020


monthly deaths USA 1959-2020 : http://magictour.free.fr/1959m.GIF

by 30 causes since 1969 : http://magictour.free.fr/tot30.GIF

COVID got an extra code : U07.1 , which is not included in any of the 30, except "all" and age45-54

monthly deaths from U07.1 in 2020 in USA :
3+16+6773+61950+35254+15812+28264+27011+16842+2206 8+48004+89533 = 351530
total deaths in 2020 :3390278 after 2861523 in 2019 , +528755


excess mortality by age  http://magictour.free.fr/http://magictour.free.fr/x2020m.GIF

it's 20% and almost constant (age)  (except <10y) ,
2%-10% higher for males, dependding on age


9
vaccine / Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« on: February 28, 2022, 01:19:40 pm »

-BA.1 is 94.9% effective against BA.2
-BA.2 is 85.6% effectives against BA.1
---------------------------------------
current VE in %
DEU,3  ,--,69,87,95,95
UK ,3  ,18,--,84,--,95
ITA,3  ,73,--,89,94,94
NY ,23 ,70,--,90,--,--
ICE,3  ,50,--,30,--,--
CA ,3  ,81,--,90,--,94
ONT,23 ,00,--,56,76,--
location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death

10
vaccine / Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« on: February 08, 2022, 12:07:17 am »
actual omicron vaccine effectiveness reports
-------------------------------------

location,date,doses,time since last dose, VE(case,symp,hosp,ICU,death)


UK-:40,--,93          waning by 2% and 1.2% per week
DEU:--,75,90,96,96    clinical symptoms
ITA:--,68,  91
ICE:42,--,80
ISR:40,--,88
ONT:15,--,50     2-3 dose
-NY:--,77,92
-CA:87,--,93
-OR:83,--   2dose:68,--
-WA:75,86     2-3 dose
FRA:--,88,86,--           1201-0116         -27(00-19)
FRA:--,69,79,--
FRA,2021-12-12,:86,91,93,96,90           case,symp,hosp,ICU,death  age>20

11
vaccine / Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« on: February 04, 2022, 11:37:44 pm »

Paul Mainwood makes these nice weekly updated computer-readable data files for UK-VE ,
since 22 weeks
https://github.com/PaulMainwood/vaccine-surveillance-reports/blob/main/assortment%20of%20denominators.csv
https://github.com/PaulMainwood/vaccine-surveillance-reports/blob/main/vaccine%20surveillance.csv

that gives VE(UK,3dose)=
40,93,98%  for case,hosp,death

while figures 1-2 and table 8 suggest 
65,85,88% (7weeks) for symp,hosp,death
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052353/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_5.pdf


average of age10grougs40-80,
boost 0%-50% Oct01-Jan01 average 7 weeks ago
average of AZ+AZ+BNT and BNT+BNT+BNT
wanes 2% per week for VE(case) and 1.2% per week for VE(hosp)

Germany : 75,91,98%   
(1*[18-59]+2*[>65])/3,3dose,clinical symp,hosp,death)

Italy :


12
vaccine / omicron vaccine effectiveness
« on: December 31, 2021, 10:22:03 pm »
scroll down for the most actual numbers

actual numbers on hospitalisations and positive-rates here:
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/genetics/b-1-1-529-(nu-)/msg320/#msg320

: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044481/Technical-Briefing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf

UK,symp,  http://magictour.free.fr/tb34a.GIF
UK,hosp:
VE(UK,h,1d, 7w,O)=52
VE(UK,h,2d,11w,O)=72
VE(UK,h,2d,30w,O)=52
VE(UK,h,3d, 4w,O)=88



Ontario , VE(case),1129-1231
76,76,74,74,72,73,72
71,70,69,67,67,64,63
59,53,47,40,32,25,16
+08,+01,-05,-12,-18,-25,-28
-31,-33,-29,-32,-38

Ontario , VE(hosp),1213-1231
84,84,83,82,82,81,81
79,78,77,75,73,70,66
63,60,56,54,47






---------------------------------------------------------
Robert Koch Institute report released today states that 95.58% of the #Omicron cases
in Germany are fully vaccinated (28% of those had a "booster"), 4.42% are unvaccinated.
--------------------------------------------------------
 the 2nd dose mRNA vaccine given to someone who also had past infection
did not further increase antibodies
---------------------------------------------------
> One of the studies shows omicron is 89% as severe in people with no vax, never infected
------------------------------------------------------


vaccine effectiveness

AZ,BNT,Mod
D,2,h,78,91
D,3,h,98,98
O,2,h,51,75
O,3,h,90,86
O,2,h,ar,54,77
O,3,h,ar,92,88


O,2,s,--,55,37

ar:adjusted for reinfections
s: symptomatic disease
h:hospitalisation
O:omicron
D:delta
w:weeks

https://twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1474070653326270473

O,2AZ+BNT,s,3w,60
O,2AZ+BNT,s,10w,35
O,2AZ+Mod,s,10w,45
O,3BNT,s,1w,70
O,3BNT,s,10w,45
O,2BNT+Mod,9w,72
O,2Mod,3w,50
O,2Mod,22w,0

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

DNK,VE : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v2.full.pdf

---------------------------------------------------------------------

VE(3*BNT,omicron,symp)=75%
-----------------------------------------------------------------
SinoVac doesn’t provide sufficient antibodies to neutralize omicron
------------------------------------------------------
VE(2xBNT,omicron,hosp)=70%
VE(2xBNT,omicron,inf)=33%

wanes
1. 2-4 wks after 2nd dose: 56%
2. 3-4 mnths after 2nd dose: 25%

VE(delta-->omicron,inf)=60%
----------------------------------------------------------------
VE(symp,2AZ,omicron,5m?,UK)=0
VE(symp,2BNT,omicron,5m?,UK)~30%
VE(symp,3BNT,omicron,1m,UK)=72%
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351833416122369
------------------------------------------------
current vaccine effectivity in Iceland
see  https://www.covid.is/data
VE(2shots,case) = -88% (Jan02)
VE(3shots,case) = 38% (Jan02)
VE(2shots,hosp) = 71% (Dec28)
VE(3shots,hosp) = 84% (Dec28)
------------------------------------------------


Iceland : http://magictour.free.fr/ice1228.GIF
VE(ICE,case,3d,5w,O)=48
VE(ICE,case,2d,20w,O)=-82%

Washington : http://magictour.free.fr/wa-1229.GIF
VE(WA,case,omicron)=60%

New York : http://magictour.free.fr/ny-1222.GIF
VE(NY,case,omicron)=75

Virginia : http://magictour.free.fr/va-1225.GIF 
VE(VA,case,omicron)=92%

UK,symp,  http://magictour.free.fr/tb34a.GIF

Ontario :  VE(case)= -31%  VE(hosp)=45% , VE(ICU)=84%    (was 73%,82%,90% 5  weeks ago)
http://magictour.free.fr/ont-0105.GIF

California : VE(case)=75% (-1% per day) , VE(hosp)=87% (-0.5% per day)  , VE(death)=95% (stable)
http://magictour.free.fr/ca-1226.GIF

Oregon, Dec30 : http://magictour.free.fr/or-1230.GIF
VE(case)=66%

Germany, Jan06 : http://magictour.free.fr/rki2w01.GIF
VE(case,2dose,18-59)= 53 , VE(hosp,18-59)=76  , VE(ICU)=89
VE(case,3dose,18-59) = 82 , VE(hosp,3dose,18-59)=92
(it's for the last 4 weeks , still mostly delta, the omicron wave is just starting,
mainly young people get it early in the wave, so I took 18-59 and not 60+)
----------------------------------------
USA-CA :
VE(Mod,case,O,2dose,14-90d)=30    quickly declining
VE(Mod,case,O,3dose,)=63
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v1
----------------------------------------

vaccine effectiveness in UK with 2-3 doses ,
4-week average
average of 4-5 highest from 7 agegroups
ONS-denumerators
reported in weeks 1,2 of 2022

VE(case) , av(5)=26.1% , 22.8%
VE(admis) , av(5)=+91.5%  ,  +89.1%
VE(death) , av(4)=+92.4% , +93.2%

-----------------------------------------------------------
VE-numbers in % for case/symp , hosp , ICU , death

ONT,0112 , VE(2+dose)=-25,40,77,--

ICE,0105 , VE(2dose) = 00,66,--,--
ICE,0105 , VE(3dose) = 32,68,--,--

Germany actual estimates from 4-week-period-numbers
DEU,0113 , VE(2dose) = 00,59,76,82
DEU,0113 , VE(3dose) = 40,83,86,89

----------------------------------------------------------------
Italy :
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_12-gennaio-2022.pdf

fig.A10,A11
VE much better in old people ? I assume it's because omicron infects young people first
 and the VE(old) will go down to the VE(young) in some weeks

Ontario, 01-25  : http://magictour.free.fr/ont-0125.GIF
VE(2+dose,case)=15%    , VE(2+dose,hosp)=50%   VE(2+dose,ICU)=80%
but these are lower numbers in the decreasing wave , VE was lower at the peak of the wave

DE : 2d:30,55,90,90  ;  3d : 65,84,90,90   (symp,hosp,ICU,death)
http://magictour.free.fr/rki2-w03.GIF

ITA : 2dl : 08,84 ; 2ds : 31,89 ; 3d : 46,94    (case,severe case) 2d >/< 120days ago

Iceland , VE(3dose,case) = 40% , VE(3dose,hosp) = 65%

California :VE(case)= 76% , VE(hosp) = 85% , VE(death) = 95%
http://magictour.free.fr/ca-0109.GIF

New York City : VE(case)=60% , VE(hosp)=88%
(NY-State gives 78% and 92%)
http://magictour.free.fr/nyc-21.GIF

France , 2022-01-01 , 2dose : -25% , 57% , 72%  (case,hosp,ICU)
France , 2022-01-01 , 3dose :  48% , 74% , 85%  (case,hosp,ICU)

Iceland, 2022-01-25  :  VE(2dose,case)=-35% , VE(2dose,hosp)=60% ,
VE(3dose,case)=40% , VE(3dose,hosp)=80%
http://magictour.free.fr/ice-0125.GIF

Germany, 2022-01-27 , http://rki2w04.GIF    40,70,80,85   ,   75,90,96,94

Israel, 2022-01-27 , average of 5 oldest age10groups
2dose>6m : 45,63 ; 2d>6m or 3dose : 45,88     for inf.,severe

UK,3dose : http://magictour.free.fr/3dosek.GiF

2022-01-16 , California : http://magictour.free.fr/ca-0116.GIF
68,80,87,93   2,3dose ; case,hosp


( how can it be 76% in CA and NY  but 10% in ONT and 40% in ICE ? )
46 in ITA , 30 in UK , 70% in DE


s also the effect that unvaccinated people are more likely to have natural immunity
and this increasing over time. Countries/States rarely report cases nd hospitalisations by
vaccination status _and_ status of previous infection

13
genetics / Re: B.1.1.529 (=omicron)
« on: December 27, 2021, 09:09:53 pm »
London, admissions dec06-jan09
111,148,132,142,162,166,157
169,199,201,220,193,210,245
301,307,386,390,278,364,374
437,456,511,450,319,316,347
401,367,366,310,312,307,277

London, in hospital dec06-jan11
1102,1134,1136,1163,1193,1185,1253
1666,1573,1534,1460,1372,1349,1360
1819,1904,2036,2097,2260,2295,2425
2640,3024,3310,3457,3636,3666,3744
3848,3993,4074,4053,3989,3819,3867
3930,,3826
(max. was 7840)
boroughs : http://magictour.free.fr/lo-0107.GIF
https://data.london.gov.uk/download/coronavirus--covid-19--cases/151e497c-a16e-414e-9e03-9e428f555ae9/phe_cases_london_boroughs.csv

2022-01-02 : ZOE COVID Study shows infections in London dropping
 and appear to have reached an R rate of 1.0. 

2022-01-08 :
The median R-value across England is below 1 (0.98) Also true in East, London, SE, NW and E Midlands, although NE England is on 1.3

Denmark, 1216-0110    (max was 964 on 2021-01-04)
hospi,517,517,517,560,
581,554,553,570,538,522,579
608,666,675,665,665,665,709
770,794,784,756,755,730,723
777,754
positive-rate,480,502,368,429,
496,537,517,485,422,461,748
1188,1152,1162,0989,0792,1069,1156
1084,1242,1133,1074,0862

NY, in hospital, 11-22 ... 01-09
2756,2718,2978,2904,2832,2911,2459
2558,3265,3272,3473,3541,3598,3577
3599,3515,3898,3959,4432,3998,3906
3406,3610,4232,4250,4296,4400,4334
4397,4818,5006,5047,5524,5505,5519
5772,6525,7160,7772,8260,8451,8773
9563,10713,11194,11878,12395,12515

Israel, cases , Nov29-Jan03
 766, 684, 443, 565, 415, 359, 473,
 755, 804, 755, 571, 585, 356, 474,
 800, 761, 627, 878, 720, 696, 794,
1356,1120,1200,1745,1351,1455,1241,
3046,2995,3446,5600,3886,6121,5060
9803

Israel, positive-rate Nov29-Jan02
0032,0063,0060,0058,0057,0056,0058,
0057,0058,0062,0061,0064,0065,0065,
0066,0066,0064,0069,0069,0074,0078,
0085,0090,0098,0107,0114,0123,0128,
0145,0160,0177,0210,0229,0265,0294

Ontario , VE(case),1129-1231
76,76,74,74,72,73,72
71,70,69,67,67,64,63
59,53,47,40,32,25,16
+08,+01,-05,-12,-18,-25,-28
-31,-33,-29,-32,-38

Ontario , VE(hosp),1213-1231
84,84,83,82,82,81,81
79,78,77,75,73,70,66
63,60,56,54,47


in hospital in 51 US-States , change last 3 weeks , and number per M. population in the last 22 days
Code: [Select]
DC,138,150,247,,976,893,825,745,610,526,459,394,361,336,327,310,259,272,261,263,242,220,200,200,197,189
OH,106, 97,119,,510,502,491,475,462,436,423,428,432,439,439,442,430,427,437,436,434,433,437,424,414,410
DE,109,112,116,,500,485,479,443,432,428,432,430,432,401,387,389,391,388,382,374,379,374,339,343,348,349
NJ,115,136,167,,455,433,406,346,269,301,284,272,223,244,237,230,216,207,199,198,195,191,162,180,170,173
IL,116,112,133,,444,444,444,427,405,371,333,333,333,333,326,312,309,295,295,295,290,282,283,274,254,254
IN,108, 95,103,,440,443,442,440,442,433,425,424,416,433,425,436,431,430,443,441,439,442,427,426,426,410
NY,110,125,153,,418,408,384,354,322,285,273,272,273,249,247,238,217,214,217,212,210,209,178,168,193,197
MI, 92, 83,112,,409,401,390,380,380,371,361,365,373,387,382,406,407,415,435,446,456,465,469,471,465,470
PA,101, 95,120,,405,403,384,369,357,346,335,335,340,343,352,349,347,347,352,354,357,357,360,349,345,346
WV,103, 94,117,,400,374,375,382,355,335,332,340,330,339,344,354,363,376,358,355,362,368,367,363,362,346
GA,115,121,198,,347,327,294,254,230,186,171,175,176,173,154,142,141,136,144,139,134,131,130,122,123,125
MD,121,118,141,,343,343,343,331,295,277,256,243,243,243,237,225,217,203,205,194,188,186,189,182,169,169
WI,100, 93,109,,322,321,317,310,299,284,284,293,297,304,307,313,306,308,313,315,310,319,307,316,318,310
AZ, 92, 92, 96,,319,322,324,318,327,325,323,329,341,342,348,355,349,346,354,359,375,380,386,375,376,384
CT,125,113,137,,319,319,319,308,267,256,232,232,232,232,227,231,232,204,204,204,196,198,188,178,162,162
KY,105, 96,118,,318,318,318,318,295,271,268,268,268,268,268,267,267,278,278,278,274,277,269,278,264,264
KS,109, 96,116,,313,303,303,267,281,267,263,269,273,281,280,275,273,278,280,276,272,266,251,256,255,256
RI,120,104,121,,303,301,299,270,278,249,249,249,249,241,242,242,239,239,239,212,253,249,243,198,198,198
NH,101, 81,102,,290,290,290,286,294,301,283,283,283,283,306,327,324,347,347,347,347,354,349,339,343,343
MA,121,106,125,,284,277,258,243,242,232,226,226,226,232,230,229,215,213,213,213,209,200,200,192,176,176
NV, 97,101,129,,283,283,283,252,254,240,218,218,218,218,217,225,214,214,214,214,218,226,222,212,220,220
NE, 96, 79,107,,270,272,267,256,247,240,238,251,262,256,279,268,292,297,317,311,328,338,320,320,325,328
OK,105,108,120,,267,271,265,241,217,216,219,222,220,216,206,198,196,202,205,212,212,201,197,198,196,194
SD, 89, 96, 97,,259,268,271,266,256,258,266,265,275,268,269,269,256,263,275,281,298,299,320,307,304,307
TN,107,103,138,,253,254,234,219,199,187,176,183,181,174,169,175,178,174,177,167,164,164,162,159,159,164
ME,103, 88, 93,,253,248,254,250,261,264,261,272,281,290,308,309,309,309,306,309,306,306,297,293,287,296
MN, 90, 94, 94,,250,250,249,255,258,265,265,265,265,268,266,274,278,278,279,290,294,304,309,309,310,310
IA, 98, 90,107,,249,252,236,236,226,228,225,232,237,239,240,246,249,258,257,263,286,265,260,261,257,261
VA,110,111,133,,243,252,243,233,220,193,189,182,182,175,179,175,166,164,163,162,165,162,154,148,147,148
NM, 89, 88, 94,,242,242,242,222,218,215,257,257,257,257,264,261,254,291,291,312,289,289,314,288,326,326
FL,107,150,232,,242,229,205,178,146,111,106,104,101, 88, 85, 76, 70, 70, 69, 70, 72, 72, 65, 65, 64, 64
TX,101,111,164,,230,220,201,178,160,143,140,140,140,139,131,127,125,125,126,120,128,125,121,123,124,124
NC,105,105,142,,228,228,216,203,190,160,160,160,160,160,160,161,156,151,151,151,153,149,150,148,143,143
MS,104,112,204,,221,209,195,164,143,110,108,108,102,104,107, 99, 93, 95, 96,100,102,124, 95, 89, 90, 92
AR,108, 90,138,,214,207,194,194,189,172,160,155,163,164,164,164,170,171,171,178,175,171,172,169,161,157
CO, 87, 87,111,,206,206,201,201,197,187,184,184,184,187,187,190,211,211,211,211,218,222,228,231,240,240
SC,113,108,165,,202,191,168,160,132,121,121,122,122,114,109,104,108,110,112,111,116,113,108, 98, 99, 99
AL,115,110,209,,176,157,143,121,105,105, 74, 84, 86, 85, 82, 78, 76, 72, 76, 74, 75, 73, 71, 68, 66, 66
LA,102,147,250,,163,163,163,141,110, 96, 65, 65, 65, 65, 58, 56, 51, 44, 44, 44, 42, 43, 42, 42, 43, 43
CA,103,101,160,,160,147,139,131,120,111,105,100,102,101,100, 97, 97, 97, 99, 99,100, 99, 99, 96, 96, 96
ND, 84, 78,114,,157,163,163,138,139,133,137,137,148,155,152,154,180,178,175,187,201,202,209,211,211,206
WA, 99, 98,125,,143,143,126,124,112, 98,116,114,115,115, 95,105,111,111,116,112,115,129,110,116,117,117
UT, 94, 83,114,,143,136,135,133,131,130,127,125,125,133,134,131,146,147,149,155,152,159,154,154,155,157
ID, 90, 81,107,,134,134,133,135,127,121,120,125,130,129,134,140,151,151,154,161,161,166,167,171,173,171
WY, 90, 76, 84,,116,114,114,128,112,138,138,138,138,138,142,142,142,180,180,171,171,183,187,199,199,199
HI,117,148,186,,114,110,103, 86, 74, 58, 59, 61, 52, 49, 44, 45, 39, 38, 41, 34, 34, 31, 34, 35, 34, 35
MT, 80, 81,108,,113,113,113,111,111,103,104,104,104,104,115,117,116,128,128,128,140,140,143,151,160,160
OR, 96, 89,132,,110,110,110,104, 98, 93, 83, 83, 83, 83, 82, 83, 85, 93, 93, 93, 97, 96, 96,101, 96, 96
VT, 73, 94,106,, 87, 87, 87, 83, 85, 96, 82, 82, 82, 82, 82, 85, 85, 91, 87, 93, 93,108,119,119,111,118
AK, 79, 86, 93,, 74, 74, 74, 74, 80, 80, 79, 79, 79, 79, 79, 95, 95, 91, 91, 91, 98, 98, 92, 92,115,115
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01, 02, 03, 04,  05, 06,... , 26


the 26 columns are :

01,State
02,100 * (in_hospital_dec18) / (in_hospital_dec11)
03,100 * (in_hospital_dec25) / (in_hospital_dec18)
04,100 * (in_hospital_jan01) / (in_hospital_dec25)
05, in_hospital_per_million_population_jan01
06, in_hospital_per_illion_population_dec31
...
26,in_hospital_per_million_population_dec11

(in_hospital always means  : in_hospital_with_COVID )


(MO=Missouri removed - to_be_corrected)

data from newsnodes
https://newsnodes.com/us_state/DC
click "show hospital data"

charts for this , update 0108 : http://magictour.free.fr/hosp0108.GIF


the hospital trend is about 5 days behind the cases-trend ,
but more reliable especially on weekends and holidays

--------update-----------------------------------------
NY,(418),434,473,530,554,588,613,619,614,616
NJ,(455),478,471,557,579,561,641,657,682,676
DC,(976),970,1015,1134,1207,1228,1249,1285,1317,1311
TX(230),
CA(160),
FL(242),
GA(347),
PA(405),
IL(444),,

charts for this :  https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FIc6FqLWQAQh90r?format=jpg&name=4096x4096


--------------------------------------------------------------------

South Africa , weekly cases,hospitalisations and deaths by week of occurance :
http://magictour.free.fr/zaf-w02.GIF


14
genetics / Re: B.1.1.529 (=omicron)
« on: December 23, 2021, 06:35:29 am »
early omicron severety studies :

ZAF : https://t.co/g24KTGU7Io
DNK : https://t.co/pQnetTf7IP
ENG : https://t.co/chqPEhph3p
SCO : https://t.co/CMv2zkG2sh

DNK,VE : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v2.full.pdf


-------------------------------------------------------------------------
vaccine effectiveness

AZ,BNT,Mod
D,2,h,78,91
D,3,h,98,98
O,2,h,51,75
O,3,h,90,86
O,2,h,ar,54,77
O,3,h,ar,92,88


O,2,s,--,55,37

ar:adjusted for reinfections
s: symptomatic disease
h:hospitalisation
O:omicron
D:delta
w:weeks

https://twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1474070653326270473

O,2AZ+BNT,s,3w,60
O,2AZ+BNT,s,10w,35
O,2AZ+Mod,s,10w,45
O,3BNT,s,1w,70
O,3BNT,s,10w,45
O,2BNT+Mod,9w,72
O,2Mod,3w,50
O,2Mod,22w,0

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
=============================================
 SARS CoV-2 entry into a cell can occur via two routes: one that only needs ACE2 and
another that needs ACE2 and TMPRSS2.
TMPRSS2 (T2) is higher in the lower airways and so virus goes the second route in those areas.
Omicron spike has reduced ability to use the ACE2+T2 route and doesn't respond to higher
T2 levels, unlike Delta
==========================================================

TB33 : risk(EC or hosp,omicron)=0.62*risk(EC,delta)
risk(hosp,omicron)=0.38*risk(hosp,delta)
This effect is still present when stratified by vaccination status

Using a very similar data set, Imperial College, provided estimates that Omicron cases had a 15
to 25% (Hazard ratio 0.8; 95% CI 0.75-85) reduced risk of emergency department attendance
(hospitalisations in their data set) and 40 to 49% (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.51-59) reduced risk of a
hospitalisation with a stay of one or more nights. Importantly, this group attempt to impute the
effect of prior infection, highlighting that while 17% of the population have tested positive for
COVID-19, this is likely to capture only one-third of total infections that have occurred in
England. Including the likelihood of previous infection, in addition to vaccination in their model,
they have estimated the intrinsic risk difference between Delta and Omicron as between 0 to
30% and the reduced risk of hospitalisation in those previously infected estimated as 55 to 70%.
===========================================================
The Sato Lab (Kei Sato)  @SystemsVirology
Japan - #Omicron is less infectious and pathogenic than #Delta and even an early pandemic
SARS-CoV-2 in infected hamster model. 1/5
-----------------------------------------------
Omicron infection enhances neutralizing immunity against Delta
------------------------------------------------
> One of the studies shows omicron is 89% as severe in people with no vax, never infected
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Coetzee :
"And their symptoms don't seem to get any worse than that. After about five
days they clear up, and that's it."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Omicron appears to have switched cell entry preference to endosomal fusion
(rather than ACE2+TMPRSS2 mediated cell surface fusion
like previous variants, incl. the well adapted Delta)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Robert Koch Institute report released today states that 95.58% of the #Omicron cases
in Germany are fully vaccinated (28% of those had a "booster"), 4.42% are unvaccinated.
--------------------------------------------------------
 the 2nd dose mRNA vaccine given to someone who also had past infection
did not further increase antibodies
---------------------------------------------------
---------------------------------------------------------------
    Daily modelled estimates produced by the ONS showed around 9.5% of Londoners had
COVID-19 as of Sunday
    Report also showed a record 1 in 35 people in England had COVID-19 between Dec.
13 and Dec. 19
The ONS report also showed a record 1 in 35 people in England had COVID-19 between Dec. 13 and Dec. 19 — compared with a previous estimate published on Thursday of 1 in 45 in the week to Dec. 16.
7% infected in London during Christmas
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Study estimates nation’s Omicron outbreak grew 70% in a week to hit one in 25 people – as data shows infections are now rising quickest in over-65s

The Office for National Statistics swabbing estimates that 2.03 million people had the virus
on any given day in the week before Christmas
2022-01-01 , granthshala.com
The ONS conducts weekly surveillance tests
----------------------------------------------------------------------
2022-01-04 , Neil Ferguson warns of 5,000 Omicron deaths a DAY in UK
ahh, seems to be old news (I had missed it)
Published: 15:38 GMT, 17 December 2021 | Updated: 23:58 GMT, 17 December 2021
---------------------------------------------------------------------
@IHME_UW
 new projections show that daily estimated #COVID19 infections has peaked at 6.2 million
on 1/6 in the US, but daily cases will rise to nearly 1.2 million by 1/19, 2022.
80-90% asymptomatic
---------------------------------------------------------------
intrinsically reduced virulence may account for an approx 25%


15
genetics / Re: B.1.1.529 (=omicron)
« on: December 19, 2021, 12:23:56 am »
==============================
SA , netcare-CEO , 12-13 : it's mild
------------------------------------------
neue Studie Imperial College, von Lauterbach vor 14h zitiert , als wahrscheinlich eingestuft
"Omnikron tellt alles in den Schatten, was wir bisher in Pandemie gesehen haben"
Katastrophenfall in London ausgerufen
hard lockdown in Netherlands at 2021-12-19, 5 AM
Denmark hospitalisations remain low
Lauterbach schliesst Lockdown ueber Weihnachten aus
Bund und Länder beraten am Dienstag (2021-12-21) über omicron
2021-12-20 , Ireland strengthens lockdown
Denmark re-introduces restrictions
Sachsen verschaeft Corona Massnahmen
----------------------------
in Thueringen ab 2021-12-20
Sobald eine ungeimpfte Person an einem Treffen teilnimmt,
dürfen nur noch zwei Personen aus einem weiteren Haushalt dabei sein.
Bisher galt diese Regel nicht für Geimpfte und Genesene.
--------------------------------
Der neue Expertenrat der Bundesregierung spricht sich für Kontaktbeschränkungen "bereits für
die kommenden Tage" aus. Es gehe um "wirksame bundesweit abgestimmte Gegenmaßnahmen",
heißt es in der Stellungnahme, die dem ARD-Hauptstadtstudio vorliegt
 Einschätzung der Wissenschaftler
Bisher sei nicht davon auszugehen, dass im Vergleich zur Delta-Variante Menschen
ohne Immunschutz einen milderen Krankheitsverlauf hätten
-------------------------------
It is obvious we are far from 95 per cent effectiveness that we obtained against the initial virus,"
Ugur Sahin told on 2021-12-20
VE(omicron,2BNT,hosp)=70%
-----------------------------------------------
Zoe :    Runny nose,  Headache , Fatigue , Sneezing ,   Sore throat
------------------------------------------------------------------
HALF of patients in London hospitals 'with Covid' were only diagnosed AFTER arriving
with another ailment https://trib.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://metro.co.uk/2021/12/16/omicron-may-be-milder-but-we-should-all-listen-to-chris-whitty-15782431/
Chris Whitty : "slightly milder than delta"
Omicron may be ‘intrinsically milder’,  but there is still not yet ‘clear evidence’.
--------------------------------------------
https://datakingz.com/2021/12/22/london-playbook-scoop-omicron-milder-in-uk-new-years-fireworks-liz-vs-no-10/
SCOOP: The Omicron coronavirus variant is causing a milder disease than the Delta
strain in most Britons, U.K. government scientists are set to conclude. The U.K.
Health Security Agency is due to publish its early real-world data on the severity
of the disease before Christmas, and Playbook is told the experts are likely to offer
a mixed outlook, with some positives and some negatives
---------------------------------------------
risk of hospitalisation from omicron is 1/3 of the delta risk
https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/pub...effectiveness-
-------------------------------------------
new data from @IHME_UW predict nearly 3 billion COVID-19 infections globally
in the next 2 months
----------------------------------------

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