Jan.24: Jeff Hogan
many are concerned about the possibility of a new pandemic,
and that is not outside the realm of possibility, according to Jeff Hogan,
a professor and infectious disease expert at the University of Georgia,
who studied the SARS coronavirus extensively.
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200124/Coronavirus-could-turn-into-a-new-pandemic.aspx However, good old-fashioned public health measures such as quarantine, handwashing,
surveillance of travelers and the use of advanced respiratory protection for healthcare workers
was sufficient to end the pandemic in 2003 and are almost certain to do the same
with the current outbreak."
While WHO and other authorities have not declared this a pandemic, I do expect this type
of announcement unless the rate of new cases begins to decline rapidly in the next 7-10 days."
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Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible
sustained global spread
By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
January 26, 2020
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr. Allison McGeer , Toront , infectious diseases specialist
“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able
to be controlled with public health measures,â€
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Jan.26 , Neil Ferguson , Imperial college
Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world,
we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,â€
[having issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr. Nancy Messonnier, CDC
transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.
“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an
aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,â€
“And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do
might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.â€
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Jan.26 , Trevor Bedford , computational biologist
estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.
“If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,â€
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr. Tom Inglesby, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health,
urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus.
Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than
have already been announced
“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,†Inglesby said, though he noted
the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply
rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on
those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around
the possibility that this won’t be contained.â€
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Oct.2019 , Eric Toner, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
last year modeled what would happen if a deadly
coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65
million people could die within 18 months.
The virus in Toner’s simulation would be resistant to any modern vaccine.
It would be deadlier than SARS, but about as easy to catch as the flu.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 , Guan Yi virologist , (SARS,2003) :
A bigger outbreak is certain,†“conservatively, – that this outbreak could be 10 times
bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few
“super spreaders†in a more defined part of the country.
“We have passed through the ‘golden period’ for prevention and control,
“What’s more, we’ve got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.26 , Dr Eric Feigl-Ding health expert at Harvard University
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive
R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient
outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating...
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Jan.24 Jonathan M. Read, Jessica R.E. Bridgen, Derek A.T. Cummings, Antonia Ho, Chris P.Jewell
Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99 percent effective reduction
in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9 percent,"
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 Theodore Standiford , professor of medicine ,interim chief Division of Pulmonary
and Critical Care Medicine.
“Also, the risk for pandemic spread of the virus has been minimized by the early
actions of the Chinese health authorities, WHO and CDC, including prompt closure
of the site where the infection originated
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.24 , Dr.Willaim Schaffner ,professor of preventive medicine and health policy , Vanderbilt
“When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s
just no comparison,Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.â€
“Familiarity breeds indifference,Because it’s new, it’s mysterious and comes from an exotic
place, the coronavirus creates anxiety.â€
The U.S. dodged a bullet with SARS,
[this is out of context, leaving out : "by the end of the season (... the risk is trivial)" ]
------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.28 , Xinhua , Prof. Zhong Nanshan , expert for respiratory diseases
Es ist sehr schwer konkret abzuschätzen, wann der Ausbruch seinen Höhepunkt
erreichen wird. Aber ich denke, circa einer Woche bis etwa 10 Tagen wird es soweit sein.
Danach wird es keine Steigerung mehr geben“.
Nachdem die Menschen aus den Ferien zurückkehren wird es keine Massenerkrankungen
geben. Dennoch müssen Vorsorge- und Erkennungsmaßnahmen strikt fortgesetzt werden.“
Der Ausbruch des SARS Virus dauerte etwa sechs Monate, aber ich denke nicht,
dass der Ausbruch des neuartigen Coronavirus lange anhalten wird. China hat eine
Reihe wirksamer Maßnahmen ergriffen, insbesondere die Früherkennung und die
frühzeitige Isolation. „Wir sind zuversichtlich, einen schweren Ausbruch oder ein
erneutes Auftreten zu verhindern, solange diese beiden wichtigsten Maßnahmen
eingehalten werden. Allerdings brauchen wir Wissenschaftler noch Zeit, den Virus
genauer zu erforschen und nach einem geeigneten Medikament zu suchen.
„Mit Hilfe aus dem ganzen Land wird Wuhan es schaffen, die Krise zu bewältigen.“
[is he saying what he really thinks or what China wants him to say ? ,
compare with Guan Yi from Hong Kong , Jan.24]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020/01/28
Experts from Hong Kong today said sustained novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
transmission is under way in China's largest cities, putting the world on the verge
of a global epidemic
At a media briefing in Hong Kong today, experts from the University of Hong Kong (HKU)
estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was dramatically higher than
the country's official totals and may be as high as 44,000. They also estimated that the
city's cases will double over the next 6 days.
Media reports detailed the estimates from Gabriel Leung, MD, MPH, and Joseph Wu, PhD,
both with the HKU medical school. The scientists also posted their slide presentation
on HKU's website.
They said that about 25,000 people in Wuhan are likely symptomatic and the others
are still in the incubation period.
They warned 2019-nCoV may be about to become a global epidemic and that sustained
human-to-human spread is already occurring in major Chinese cities.
The experts added, however, that quarantines would have limited impact. Leung and Wu urged areas with the closest travel links to China to be ready to deploy their preparedness plans on short notice.
Based on outbreak data and train, air, and road travel from Wuhan—which is central China's transportation hub—they said Chongqing could be the next most affected city, becaue of its strong transport ties to Wuhan. They said outbreaks in Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen could peak in April or May and gradually slow in June and July.
China's nCoV cases pass MERS total
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
~Jan28, Mike Ryan ,WHO
"We are at an important juncture in this event. We believe these chains of transmission
can still be interrupted,"
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jan.29 , Rolf Hilgenfeld , Professor Luebeck, Coronavirus expert
"These RNA viruses are self-limiting. That means after a certain time,
most people have developed antibodies against the virus, even though they
did not fall sick. Then they are immune against the infection.
These outbreaks typically end by themselves after a couple of months",
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020/01/26 , Dr.Theresa Tam, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer
With no active spread of the virus in Canada, and a diminishing number of travellers from
China, Tam repeated the mantra that the risk to Canadians “remains low.”
---------------------------------------------------------------------
2020/01/30 , Peter Sandman, risk communication
questioning the “no reason for alarm” messaging.
“Officials and experts are alarmed already — reason enough for the public to gird
up its loins as well,” .
“Worry is about the future. Telling people not to worry about an emerging infectious
disease because it isn’t a significant risk here and now is foolish,”
“Given the real possibility that the coronavirus might start spreading locally in
North American cities, now is the right time to worry and prepare, at least emotionally
and perhaps logistically as well.”
Masks may or may not prove to be useful,. “In case they do turn out useful,
buying them now is provident, not panicky.”
More importantly, suggesting people are foolish to worry about an emerging infectious
disease is patronizing, “when what is needed is empathy.”
Officials and the media should focus more “on the high likelihood that things will get
worse and the not-so-small possibility they will get much worse,”.
“I think there is little need to ameliorate public over-reaction now. The bigger need is to
reduce public over-reaction later to predictable bad news that will take people by surprise
insofar as they weren’t sufficiently forewarned and didn’t get enough chance to
rehearse emotionally.”
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