nCoV_info

the format should work, but I'm not plotting these outside China,
the numbers are too low.
JoDi  has the charts :
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/edit#gid=1713765001

I'd say 4 days. In the very first phase in late Jan. they listed cases which they were trying to cover up
until ~Jan.20

can it be worse here than in Wuhan ?
And with your estimate Wuhan has a very low CFR.
They have the 3 weeks death-delay since shutdown now.
And why is the pandemic inevitable, when China apparently succeeded to control it
despite all these initial cases without knowledge what helps ?
Are we so much worse than China ? Then quickly change the laws for
quarantine and such, import Chinese doctors and nurses,.

ahh, sorry. I'm so used to edit, that apparently I
accidentally edited your message instead of replying

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money is always a problem , but you said "cheap"

It could be worth it in some countries.

The problem is people are infective before having symptoms and maybe
also before symptoms can be detected.

I think it must be made illegal to infect others carelessly or to not report
a risk-level and isolate/protect if required.
See China.
« Last Edit: Today at 01:01:40 am by gsgs »

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Researchers in China and the US are developing a vaccine for the new Coronavirus.
If all goes well, they may run the first tests in three months. A vaccine would be
available mid-year — at the very earliest.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-vaccine-a-race-against-time/a-52174737
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Even if it all goes well, the earliest a vaccine against nCoV could be introduced would
be the summer of 2020.
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Another potential approach against the coronavirus nCoV is with monoclonal antibodies,
which can activate specific immunological reactions in the body.
Herbert Virgin at Vir Biotechnology in Illinois, USA, says his company has developed
antibodies which have shown themselves to be effective against SARS and MERS in
laboratory tests. Some were reportedly able to neutralize coronaviruses. "It's possible that
they could also treat the Wuhan virus," says Virgin.
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Prof. Mark Harris, a virologist at the School for Molecular and Cell Biology at the
University of Leeds in the UK, estimates the mortality rate of nCoV to be at 0.1 percent.
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A spokesman for the Institutes (NIH) said that it could be a few months before the first
 clinical trials of the vaccine get underway – and a year or more before it’s available.
----------------------------------------
Meanwhile, Baylor College of Medicine in Houston is also reported to be working on a vaccine.
----------------------------------------
so they are going to test it on animals who so far have not been found to catch the virus
 so whats that going to prove apart from if it does not kill an animal it MAY be ok for
 humans why not just test it on a confirmed subject and bypass animal crue..
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Feb.12
The first vaccine targeting the new coronavirus could be 18 months away, and the outbreak
could end up creating a global threat potentially worse than terrorism, the WHO has warned.
--------------------------------------------------
At least a dozen research teams globally have already made headway in vaccine research
against the new coronavirus.
-----------------------------------------------------
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIAID, said they are on track to test their vaccine by April.
“Whenever you’re dealing with a vaccine, there’s always a potential for glitches,”
 “Right now, all those glitches, they’ve been overcome.”
Phase one of human testing will still take at least three months to complete, he said.
Then a decision has to be made about whether the vaccine will advance to a phase two trial.
“The risk is the companies now have to invest a lot of money,” Fauci said. “You would
have to do a trial of several hundred to several thousand people to see if it works —
that usually takes anywhere from several months to a couple of years.”
Even with expedited approval, phase two of the new coronavirus vaccine would require
a time investment of at least a year, he said.
------------------------------------------------
The 'holy grail' universal vaccine
Another competitive advantage the team enjoys is Hogue’s prior experience working
on a SARS vaccine, which should speed up their work on the new coronavirus vaccine,
since the new virus is about 80% similar to SARS at the genetic level.
In hindsight, Hogue wishes she had continued to work on her SARS vaccine.
"At the time we were pursuing this, we didn't have all that background and understanding
that there were a lot of these SARS-like viruses that could infect humans,” she said.
-------------------------------------------------------
An expert in infectious diseases on Monday said it was possible there could be a vaccine
against the new virus originating in China "at the very earliest" by September.
Chair of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College London, Professor Azra Ghani,
added "it's more likely to be towards the end of the year".
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In Kooperation mit dem Forscherteam um Sutter arbeitet auch eine Gruppe
um den Virologen Stephan Becker, Direktor des Instituts für Virologie an der
Philipps Universität Marburg und Koordinator des Forschungsbereichs
Neu auftretende Infektionskrankheiten am Deutschen Zentrum für
Infektionsforschung (DZIF), an einem Impfstoffkandidaten.
Wenn der politische oder medizinische Druck hoch genug sei, dann würden
die Zulassungsverfahren beschleunigt, zeigten seine Erfahrungen.
-------------------------------------------------------

no measures were really successfull in the past to stop pandemics
or even to isolate cities, countries,continents - keeping the virus out.
Even in times without air-travel, railroad.
And all the papers, the modelings said that it can't be stopped,
just delayed,mitigated to some degree.

So I was surprised when the Chinese numbers went down.
And I'm not sure, that it were the measures. There should be differences
from city to city but apparantly in no city, in no country except maybe Wuhan it did take off yet.

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https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/828940-covid-19-dealing-with-imperfect-numbers

the numbers of new confirmed cases Hubei ex Wuhan and China ex Hubei
do really go down.
They did change the definition of confirmed cases somehow and hospitalizations
are still up , but -same argument- the trend should still show up,
if they underreport or change the definition abruptly.
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as for the CFR, I verified the 3 weeks lag , I was reading this :
https://republicanfreedom.com/2020/02/10/the-death-rate-is-up-to-5-the-harrowing-admission-of-a-wuhan-doctor/

found this while searching the link :
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/
 > Days from first symptom to death: 14 days

obviously it has changed

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7.2 days here:
https://github.com/blab/ncov-phylodynamics

 > We estimate an exponential doubling time of 7.2 (95% CI 5.0-12.9) days. We arrive at a median
 > estimate of the total cumulative number of worldwide infections as of Feb 8, 2020, of 55,800
 > with a 95% uncertainty interval of 17,500 to 194,400. Importantly, this approach uses genome
 > data from local and international cases and does not rely on case reporting within China.