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Messages - gsgs

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financial / why did markets go up after the WHO-declaration ?
« on: January 30, 2020, 08:18:46 pm »
Die Aufwärtsbewegung begann, nachdem die WHO eine
"gesundheitliche Notlage von internationaler Tragweite" ausgerufen hatte.
keine Reise- und Handelsbeschränkungen nötig.

nCoV - discussion / Re: Prediction Chart
« on: January 30, 2020, 07:28:54 pm »
we should make an extra subforum for this


I remember someone from University of Oxford doing a list

how to best present it here

found it :
list of cases :

mean age of infection was 47 years
37% of cases were female

This database is...
seems that he stopped at 3020

well, wikipedia has the list:

here my charts from the wiki-data :

here the wiki-data in computer-readable form: be updated... (post it here in an extra thread ?]

some of the logarithmic charts on the right bend a little towards horizontal,
which is a good sign.
However, this could be due to reduced report of cases, as they are being overwhelmed

nCoV - discussion / Re: Prediction Chart
« on: January 30, 2020, 07:17:34 pm »
also FredRoosevelt at FT in the discussion thread

quoting BNO - newsroom

pictures : enclose the link with  (img) and (/img) but with [] insstead of ()
I just tried it below

vaccine / takes over a year (Jan.2020)
« on: January 30, 2020, 02:12:13 am »
January 27th, 2020, 11:50 AM
Fauci,NIH : 1 year
Fauci said it would take a few months until the first phase of clinical trials begins and
more than a year until a vaccine is available

Tregoning, Imperial College at Bloomberg : 5-6 Months

University of Queensland : 16 weeks , 6 months
The team hopes to develop a vaccine over the next six months, which may be used to help
contain this outbreak,” he said. “The vaccine would be distributed to first responders,
helping to contain the virus from spreading around the world.” (Paul Young)

Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer, committed to getting that done
on CEPI’s 16-week timeline. And the company will be able to manufacture the
eventual vaccine in a matter of a few months, Zaks said. That should cover
clinical trials, he said, but if the vaccine ends up working — and the 2019-nCoV
outbreak drags on — the company would have to rely on someone else to
churn out the massive number of doses required to halt the virus.

David Weiner , Inovio : "much faster".

Gregory Glenn from Novavax says that his firm is working on developing a
vaccine for the China coronavirus, and work on that could take two to three months.

CEPI : In 16 Wochen sollen die ersten Impfstoffe gegen das neuartige Coronavirus
getestet werden Eine Erfolgsgarantie gebe es allerdings nicht.
Laut Experten dürfte es aber mindestens ein Jahr dauern, bis ein fertiger Impfstoff
zur Verfügung steht.

I speculate they could somehow reduce the testing phase, if time urges,
That makes it somehow risky, but hey, the pandemic is the bigger risk.
I can't find any statements on this, though. But maybe they mustn't talk
about this ... it's all commercial,legal.government - they can't just speak freely.

China coronavirus: Hong Kong researchers have already developed vaccine but need
time to test it, expert reveals

Johnson & Johnson JNJ, +0.70%  now plans to initiate development of a vaccine
candidate for 2019-nCoV and is also providing its antiviral HIV treatment Prezcobix in
China for investigational purposes.
Becton Dickinson and Co. BDX, -0.02%, the diagnostics company, is sending
instruments used in diagnostic testing to China

TAWA — Canada’s chief public health officer says it will likely take at least a year
before a vaccine is developed to protect people against the new coronavirus t
 Dr. Theresa Tam

Jan.29 , Novartis CEO
it will take over a year until there is a vaccine

[in Europe or worldwide ? also in China with maybe reduced trial-regulations ? ]

Vaxart, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing oral recombinant vaccines
 administered by tablet rather than by injection, announced on Jan.31 that it has initiated
a program to develop a coronavirus vaccine candidate based on its proprietary oral
vaccine platform, VAAST.
Feb-05   Sweden: Karolinska joins global hunt for coronavirus vaccine.
Der britische Epidemiologe Jeremy Farrar geht davon aus, dass ein Impfstoff gegen das neuartige Coronavirus 2019-nCoV zu spät kommen wird, um die drohende globale Ausbreitung der Seuche zu verhindern. „Realistischerweise wird ein Impfstoff frühestens zum Jahresende fertig oder in einem Jahr – und das wäre schon in Rekordzeit“, sagte Farrar dem „Spiegel“. Wenn man Pech habe, werde es „niemals gelingen“.

Der Direktor des Wellcome Trust

„Es könnte sogar sein, dass das neuartige Coronavirus anders als Influenzaviren nicht nur hauptsächlich saisonal auftritt, sondern das ganze Jahr kursiert“, so der Mediziner weiter. Er bezweifelt, dass die Bewohner westlicher Metropolen wie München oder Paris im Falle einer Pandemie eine wochenlange Abriegelung ihrer Städte wie in China hinnehmen würden.

Wenn alles nach Plan läuft, könnte es bis zum Jahresende ein Serum geben. Ist ein Impfstoff gefunden, muss er noch einen langen Weg bis zur Zulassung gehen.


financial / gsgs selection1
« on: January 30, 2020, 01:26:07 am »
2020/01/28/05:00 UTC
China50=13011 (13800 on Friday = -5.7%)
Dow Jones=28600 (29200 on Friday = -2.1%)
$/Yuan=6.9728 (6.93 on Friday =+0.1%)
Gold=1578 (1572 on Friday = +0.4%)
oi(WTI)=5311 (5418 on Friday=-2.0%)
US-VIX=17.09 (12.72 on Friday = +34.3%)
Novavx=7.8 (7.0 on Friday = +11.4%)
-----3.5 on Jan.15
Moderna=22.8 (21.2 on Friday = +7.5%)
Inovio=5.4 (4.2 on Friday = +28.6%)
-----2.6 on Dec.17 with a jump to 3.3 on Dec.22 , 3.4 on Jan 22

Chinese stocks
Chinese currency
US-volatility ~ level of uncertainety
nCoV-vaccine stocks

-----------update 2020/01/28/05:20 UTC---------------------
Dow Jones=28782
oil=54.14 (55.5 on Fri, 53.0 on Mon)
the maket seems to less concerned about the pandemic risk today

2020/01/30/06:11 UTC ,
Dow Jones=28556

2010/01/31/02:00 UTC
2020/02/01/02:00 UTC,week before
(everything as expected wrt. nCoV, except that the vaccine stocks are down [[why ?]]
another surprise was, that the Dow went up directly on the WHO-global-crisis-announcement)

============week 2==================
2020/02/03/06:00 UTC
2020/02/08/05:30 UTC
pandemic fear goes down
2020/02/22/04:30 UTC
1 month , 2020/01/24,2020/01/28,2020/02/22/04:30
2020/04/15/08:00-UTC , +- since Jan24
China A50=12832(-7%)

genetics / genbank 2020/01/28
« on: January 29, 2020, 09:59:10 pm »
genbank release 235 of 2019/12/15 had 35 files with viral sequences
this gave xxxxx genbank records with 15.1 GB in total

31686 of these had the keyword "orona" in them , making 284 MB for the records,
120.2MB for the nucleotid sequences
one was removed, which had >300000 nucleotides

file oro2.nuc   , 31685 nucleotide sequences of lengths  40-33578 2911 of these with lengths > 25000

8766 of the 31685 were filtered as having some common epitope with the new Wuhan strain.
(my program epifox from 2013 , epifox wuhan oro2.nuc 28 15 m5 )
file oro3.nuc

better,stronger filtering gives   366 in file oro4.nuc , lengths 130-30256 ,  255 of these of length > 25000


links / other forums and news-sites
« on: January 29, 2020, 08:15:48 pm »
China, number updates :

Deutschlandfunk :
USA Today
virology blog prof.Raccaniello
Avian Flu Diary
crofs blog
with many more links like these here
virology down under


other forums : virology forum , sequencing experts

-----------------------------------------   currently unavailable    pfi forum is now closed
thisbluemarble , flu clinic still there

================================================== ======
financial data :

2020/01/27/02:30 UTC
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 2976.53 -84.226 -2.75% , well, that was Jan.23

where to get actual prices for futures from Asian trade
and credit default swaps

just typing shanghai composite at bing

Chinese markets are closed ?
presumably Chinese stocks are also being trade in Sydney,Singaporre,Japan ?!

FTSE China A50 Index
Monday - Friday: 03:00-09:50, 10:50-19:50 (presumably UTC, GMT)

OK, I get 13165 for the China A50 index at 03:35 MET = GMT+1
so -3.5% , that's less than expected (IMO)
by opening a demo-account at an European Futures broker
Chinese currency (renminbi) 0.6% down

VIX-index : (USA , level of uncertainety)

barchart futures :

where was that mixin futures link with multiple futures, the red-green images

links / fluwiki
« on: January 29, 2020, 08:05:11 pm »
the old fluwiki forum ("old yeller") , 2005-20012 , discussing the threatening H5N1 pandemic

news / Jan 2020
« on: January 29, 2020, 07:19:38 pm »
Jan.29 , WHO press conference
case fatality rate = 2%,

expert opinions / Jan 2020
« on: January 29, 2020, 06:52:31 pm »
Jan.24:  Jeff Hogan
 many are concerned about the possibility of a new pandemic,
 and that is not outside the realm of possibility, according to Jeff Hogan,
a professor and infectious disease expert at the University of Georgia,
who studied the SARS coronavirus extensively.
 However, good old-fashioned public health measures such as quarantine, handwashing,
surveillance of travelers and the use of advanced respiratory protection for healthcare workers
was sufficient to end the pandemic in 2003 and are almost certain to do the same
with the current outbreak."
While WHO and other authorities have not declared this a pandemic, I do expect this type
 of announcement unless the rate of new cases begins to decline rapidly in the next 7-10 days."
Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible
sustained global spread
By Helen Branswell @HelenBranswell
January 26, 2020
Jan.26 , Dr. Allison McGeer , Toront , infectious diseases specialist
“The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able
to be controlled with public health measures,”
Jan.26 , Neil Ferguson , Imperial college
Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world,
we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,”
[having issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak]
Jan.26 , Dr. Nancy Messonnier,  CDC
transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.
“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an
aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,”
“And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do
might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”
Jan.26 , Trevor Bedford , computational biologist
estimates are sobering and point to continued spread.
“If it’s not contained shortly, I think we are looking at a pandemic,”
Jan.26  , Dr. Tom Inglesby, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health,
 urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus.
Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than
have already been announced
“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted
the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply
rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on
those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around
the possibility that this won’t be contained.”
Oct.2019 , Eric Toner, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security
last year modeled what would happen if a deadly
coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65
million people could die within 18 months.
The virus in Toner’s simulation would be resistant to any modern vaccine.
It would be deadlier than SARS, but about as easy to catch as the flu.
Jan.24 , Guan Yi  virologist , (SARS,2003) :
A bigger outbreak is certain,” “conservatively, – that this outbreak could be 10 times
bigger than the SARS epidemic because that virus was transmitted by only a few
“super spreaders” in a more defined part of the country.
“We have passed through the ‘golden period’ for prevention and control,
“What’s more, we’ve got the holiday traffic rush and a dereliction of duty from certain officials.
Jan.26 , Dr Eric Feigl-Ding  health expert at Harvard University
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive
 R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient
 outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating...
Jan.24  Jonathan M. Read, Jessica R.E. Bridgen, Derek A.T. Cummings, Antonia Ho, Chris P.Jewell
Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
 Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
 Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99 percent effective reduction
in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9 percent,"
Jan.24 Theodore Standiford , professor of medicine ,interim chief Division of Pulmonary
and Critical Care Medicine.
“Also, the risk for pandemic spread of the virus has been minimized by the early
actions of the Chinese health authorities, WHO and CDC, including prompt closure
of the site where the infection originated
Jan.24 , Dr.Willaim Schaffner ,professor of preventive medicine and health policy , Vanderbilt
“When we think about the relative danger of this new coronavirus and influenza, there’s
just no comparison,Coronavirus will be a blip on the horizon in comparison. The risk is trivial.”
“Familiarity breeds indifference,Because it’s new, it’s mysterious and comes from an exotic
place, the coronavirus creates anxiety.”
The U.S. dodged a bullet with SARS,
[this is out of context, leaving out : "by the end of the season (... the risk is trivial)"  ]
Jan.28 , Xinhua , Prof. Zhong Nanshan , expert for respiratory diseases
Es ist sehr schwer konkret abzuschätzen, wann der Ausbruch seinen Höhepunkt
erreichen wird. Aber ich denke, circa einer Woche bis etwa 10 Tagen wird es soweit sein.
Danach wird es keine Steigerung mehr geben“.
Nachdem die Menschen aus den Ferien zurückkehren wird es keine Massenerkrankungen
geben. Dennoch müssen Vorsorge- und Erkennungsmaßnahmen strikt fortgesetzt werden.“
Der Ausbruch des SARS Virus dauerte etwa sechs Monate, aber ich denke nicht,
dass der Ausbruch des neuartigen Coronavirus lange anhalten wird. China hat eine
Reihe wirksamer Maßnahmen ergriffen, insbesondere die Früherkennung und die
frühzeitige Isolation. „Wir sind zuversichtlich, einen schweren Ausbruch oder ein
erneutes Auftreten zu verhindern, solange diese beiden wichtigsten Maßnahmen
eingehalten werden. Allerdings brauchen wir Wissenschaftler noch Zeit, den Virus
genauer zu erforschen und nach einem geeigneten Medikament zu suchen.
„Mit Hilfe aus dem ganzen Land wird Wuhan es schaffen, die Krise zu bewältigen.“
[is he saying what he really thinks or what China wants him to say ? ,
compare with Guan Yi from Hong Kong , Jan.24]
Experts from Hong Kong today said sustained novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
transmission is under way in China's largest cities, putting the world on the verge
of a global epidemic
At a media briefing in Hong Kong today, experts from the University of Hong Kong (HKU)
estimated that the number of cases in Wuhan as of Jan 25 was dramatically higher than
the country's official totals and may be as high as 44,000. They also estimated that the
city's cases will double over the next 6 days.
Media reports detailed the estimates from Gabriel Leung, MD, MPH, and Joseph Wu, PhD,
both with the HKU medical school. The scientists also posted their slide presentation
on HKU's website.
They said that about 25,000 people in Wuhan are likely symptomatic and the others
are still in the incubation period.
They warned 2019-nCoV may be about to become a global epidemic and that sustained
human-to-human spread is already occurring in major Chinese cities.

The experts added, however, that quarantines would have limited impact. Leung and Wu urged areas with the closest travel links to China to be ready to deploy their preparedness plans on short notice.
Based on outbreak data and train, air, and road travel from Wuhan—which is central China's transportation hub—they said Chongqing could be the next most affected city, becaue of its strong transport ties to Wuhan. They said outbreaks in Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen could peak in April or May and gradually slow in June and July.
China's nCoV cases pass MERS total
~Jan28, Mike Ryan ,WHO
"We are at an important juncture in this event. We believe these chains of transmission
can still be interrupted,"
Jan.29 , Rolf Hilgenfeld , Professor Luebeck, Coronavirus expert
"These RNA viruses are self-limiting. That means after a certain time,
most people have developed antibodies against the virus, even though they
did not fall sick. Then they are immune against the infection.
These outbreaks typically end by themselves after a couple of months",
2020/01/26 , Dr.Theresa Tam, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer
With no active spread of the virus in Canada, and a diminishing number of travellers from
China, Tam repeated the mantra that the risk to Canadians “remains low.”
2020/01/30 , Peter Sandman, risk communication
 questioning the “no reason for alarm” messaging.
“Officials and experts are alarmed already — reason enough for the public to gird
up its loins as well,” .
“Worry is about the future. Telling people not to worry about an emerging infectious
disease because it isn’t a significant risk here and now is foolish,”
“Given the real possibility that the coronavirus might start spreading locally in
North American cities, now is the right time to worry and prepare, at least emotionally
and perhaps logistically as well.”
Masks may or may not prove to be useful,. “In case they do turn out useful,
buying them now is provident, not panicky.”
More importantly, suggesting people are foolish to worry about an emerging infectious
disease is patronizing, “when what is needed is empathy.”
Officials and the media should focus more “on the high likelihood that things will get
worse and the not-so-small possibility they will get much worse,”.
“I think there is little need to ameliorate public over-reaction now. The bigger need is to
reduce public over-reaction later to predictable bad news that will take people by surprise
insofar as they weren’t sufficiently forewarned and didn’t get enough chance to
rehearse emotionally.”

General Discussion / WHO press conferences
« on: January 29, 2020, 09:41:09 am »
Live broadcast - WHO press conference on new Coronavirus - Today at 17h Geneva time
WHO will hold a press conference today at 15h Geneva time in the UN building in Geneva
on the situation regarding New Coronavirus

Speakers will be:

• Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme
• Dr Maria VAN KERKHOVE, Head a.i., Emerging Diseases and Zoonosis, WHO

The press conference will be broadcast live on WHO Twitter account: @WHO
Please send your questions using: #AskWHO

Speakers will be:
• Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme
• Dr Maria VAN KERKHOVE, Head a.i., Emerging Diseases and Zoonosis, WHO

Place: Salle de Press III

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