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91
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on April 09, 2020, 01:24:47 am »
2020/04/09
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati


 > period of untracked global transmission between late
 > January to mid-February.”
 > 7 lineages in New York

China,63+17+56 ;  SouthKorea,39   Japan,+351(=4257)    Singapore,+142(=1623) ; Germany+4974
dow=23188
23 daily Italy epi-curves since Mar20 as .bmp available

update : Italy-provinces : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0408.GIF
MI=Milano,BG=Bergamo,BS=Brescia,PV=Pavia,TO=Torino,GE=Genova,VE=Venezia,RM=Roma
NA=Napoli,FI=Firenze,AN=Ancona

11:40-UTC  word-charts updated : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0407.GIF

Italy : 46244 tested, 4204 positive ,
positiverate=9.0% (up from 7.4) , Lombardia=14.7(13.2),North=10.1(9.0),South=5.3(3.5)

=============================================
2020/04/10:
China,42+3+47 , SouthKorea,27;  Japan,410 ; Singapore,287 ; Ireland , Germany

http://magictour.free.fr/w-0407.GIF

strangely almost all of the European Countries with many cases
had a slight increase again in the last days
USA,ESP,ITA,DEU,FRA,BEL,CHE,NLD,CAN,PRT,AUT,ISR,SWE,IRL,NOR,CZ-
not DNK,SRB,FIN
after the previous decline
so, is it some weather effect ? weekend-effect ? worldwide testing availability effect ?
downtrend in CHN,KOR,AUT,AUS,NOR,NZ,LUX,LVA,TWN,CHE,ITA
----------------------------------
Germany , predicted epi-curve : http://magictour.free.fr/rkiepi4.GIF

Italt 53495 tests, 3951 positive , as good as the day before yesterday, yesterday was worse
increased testing since Wednesday
================================================
2020/04/11

China,46+8+34,99+49+12,
South Korea,30,32,
Japan,212,233,303,219,515,252,351,410,680,183(=5530,b6184) ;
Singapore,75,65,120,66,106,262,287,198,191(=2299) 
Ireland,370,345,465,500,1515,839(=8928)
Germany,6082,5936,3677,3834,4003,4974,5323,4133,5122(=117658,b122780)
------------------------------------------
WHO-Tedros,Apr10, build a supply-chain (together with UN and world-food-programme)
to cover 30% of world's needs in the acute phase, $280M
------------------------------------------------
report-date - symptom-onset : http://magictour.free.fr/epis1.GIF
---------------------------------------------
I'm almost 1 day behind now with the numbers from ECDC, which come at noon-UTC
-----------------------------------------------
3fold increase of deaths from all causes already in the last available 7 days in 2
French departments, 2.21fold in the 14 (out of 100) hardest hit departments.
1.25 fold (+25%) in entire France
https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/4470857
http://magictour.free.fr/f-0410b.GIF
------------------------------------------------------------
Italy : 56609 tests , 4666 positive , 13% increase against yesterday :-(
=================================================
2020/04/12
China,99+49+12 , South Korea , Japan , Singapore , Ireland
updated my 116 world-COVID-charts : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0407.GIF
in Europe  ITA,GBR,NLD,IRL go up again    UK(GBR) did extra-tests on keyworkers on Apr11
Italy , 46720 tests with 4092 positives , positive-rate slightly up to 8.7%, N=10.6%,S=3.5%

==============================================
2020/04/13
China, 108+6+61 (local:7 Heilongjiang,3 Guangdong) , 244 are still in hospital in Hubei
  and 1815 are still under medical observation in Hubei
[I'm giving wiki's daily promille-changes below now]
---edit-well, I'm not happy with that, it depends on the total-no matter how far back
Japan,75,160,69,90,100,140,120,120,93,
changed at wiki to , 100,120,120,120,69,90,120,120,120,120,75,54,60,60
Singapore,49,62,67,100,50,77,96,180,100,91,100,150,110,140
Denmark,82,69,69,80,63,42,32,29,29,23,30,25
Italy-pr,90,74,90,73,82,87,85,110,61,62,53
still going up : TUR,RUS,IND,IRE,(UK?,US?),   NL,BEL , CHL,JPN

Italy, 36717 tests, 3153 positive , pr=8.5,N=9.7,S=4.6 , Lombardy=23.9 !
===============================================
2020/04/14
China,89+3+54 (3 Guangdong) , Korea,27 , Japan,7370(+622,+9.3%) , Singapore,+15%
Tedros :  10 times deadlier than the 2009 flu pandemic.
early case-finding, testing, isolating caring for every case and tracing every contact is essential
 the way down is much slower than the way up.
[# not in all countries , Austria,Australia,New Zealand,Norway,Luxemburg,China,SouthKorea,...]
http://magictour.free.fr/w-0407.GIF
RKI,Germany gives daily R0-estimates since Apr07 :
1.3,1.2,1.1,1.1,1.3,1.1,1.2
dow=23599
article about HongKong,Singapore strategies : https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/suppress-and-lift-hong-kong-and-singapore-say-they-have-coronavirus-strategy-works
chart : http://magictour.free.fr/hk-sgp.GIF
Germany Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0413.GIF
Italy - the pdf which I use was not updated today ... it came later
============================================
2020/01/15
China,46 (8 Heilongjiang,2 Guangdong)+11+57 , Korea,27 ; Japan slows down ; Singapore still up
Czech totally down in the last 5 days (masks ?)
Germany unclear, cases are much lower than last week,
but RKI gives R0=1.2. Easter-underreporting ?
USA +4.4% going down, UK +5.9%, still bad
261 new sequences at genbank on Apr13, 52 on Apr14 , 928 in total, 719 from USA,41 from Europe
plus 102 from Germany downloadable from Charite, not at genbank
dow=23724
08:00-UTC-dax=10520,dow=23700,euro=1.093,gold=1707,oil=28.6,VIX=34
Novavax=16,Moderna=31,Inovio=7
-------------------------------
Italy Apr14 is now available. only 26779 tests, still 2972 positive.
The positive rate increases to 11.0% , 12.7% in the North, 6.0% in the South
-------------------------------
ECDC has a big increase today in France,Peru,SRB,MDA,ARM ; decline in Belgium
US-deaths estimate =69000 : https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
-------------------------
Italy, 43715 tests, 2667 positive ; good
positive-rate = 6.1% (11.0% the day before , so maybe they tested different groups now)
===================================
2020/04/16
China,46+3+64 (12 local,5 Guangdong, 4 Heilongjiang,3 Beijing), 1032 asympt. in total currently

44% of infections during the presymptomatic phase
Redfield : we're nearing the peak right now
dow=23374
----------------------------------------
daily podcasts in German
Kekule#25 , WHO shows no leadership
Kekule#24 , doubts there will be vaccine in 18 months
Kekule#20 , praises Austria
https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/podcast/kekule-corona/index.html
Drosten#31 , reinfection unlikely
Drosten#30 , data-app
https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/Coronavirus-Update-Die-Podcast-Folgen-als-Skript,podcastcoronavirus102.html
scripts --> all into one file, translate
08:45, dax=10427,dow=23650

Germany : R0=0.9 , first time that they give it as <1 .
They also have new estimated curves by system-onset
in the German version only, see the chart on page 6 : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-15-de.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
116 worldcharts in 1 picturefile updated : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0407.GIF
France stabilised, probably a data-error yesterday.
It goes down slowly in the major European Countries since weeks. USA,UK are 1-2 weeks behind.
It went down faster in Austria,Czech,Denmark,Australia,NZ,Lux

positive-rates : http://magictour.free.fr/PR-0416.GIF
In Austria it took 5 weeks
Italy, 60999 tests, 3687 positive , unusually much testing
positive-rate: 6.2%,N:7.2%,S:3.0%

euromomo week 15 : http://magictour.free.fr/euromo15.GIF

=============================================
2020/04/17
China,26+3+66~1038  ,local: 5GD,3+2HL,2SD,1LI,0+1IM
world-update : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0417.GIF
1044 sequences at genbank, all full new ones from USA
~3% of Santa Clara County , CA , infected
Italy : 65705 tests (a lot) , 3493 positive  , the positive rate is being updated daily above now
90,74,90,73,82,87,85,110,61,62,53
France, INSEE daily deaths updated  https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/4470857
~40% excess deaths on Apr06,after 50% on Mar31 for whole France
92
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on April 09, 2020, 01:23:00 am »
2020/04/04
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv

China,19+11+64 ; SouthKorea, 96 ; Germany, 6082

China,55+49,53+29,45+28,31+17,48+44,36+26+130,35+2 0+55,31+12+60,
19+11+64,30+11+47,39+10+78,30+11+47,62+12+137,-
SouthKorea,91,146,105,78,125,101,89,86,96,81,47,47 ,53
Denmark,55,172,252,160,128,lockdown,32,39,57,92,91 ,
108,112,83,94,70,135,144,162,176,167,198,191, 284,251,252,414,322,293,314,-
Czech,CZ,0,0,3,0,2,0,3,11,7,6,6,25,31,22,25,48,109 ,lockdown
85,67,110,205,124,158,114,128,185,291,259,373,262, 160,184,307,281,269,332,282,115,235,-
Netherlands,155,176,278,292,346,409,534,637,573,54 5,811,852,
1019,1172,1159,1104,884,845,1019,1083,1026,904,122 4,952,-
Austria : 430,680,925,684,838,1050,596,541,841,597,508,485,4 16,282,242,299,-
Japan,55,41,64,34,15,44,41,36,57,47,32,42 ,65,98,96,112,194,173, 87,225,208,233,303,219,515,252,-,-
Singapore,2,2,2,5,13,8,12,10,6,12,9,13,12,14,17,23 ,47,32,40,
47,23,54,49,73,52,49,70,42,35,47,74,49,65,75,120,6 6,106
Taiwan,1,1,1,3,6,8,10,23,8,27,18,16,26,20,20,17,15 ,16,15,8,16,7,10,9,7,8,-
HongKong,5,1,5,9,2,6,4,7,9,10,25,16,48,18,43,40,29 ,24,43,65,64,59,41,32,51,37,44,17,28,24,-
Australia,0,8,3,10,7,12,20,15,29,42,50,50,78,77, 113,142,167,196,
281,364,430,285,379,369,460,345,265,311,303,272,22 2,194,141,107,-
New Zealand,1,2,0,4,8,8,11,13,14,36,53,50,78,85,83,63, 75,58,61,89,71,82,89,67,-
USA,2410,3948,5417,6271,8631,10410,9939,12226,1705 0,
19046,20093,19118,20463,25396,26732,28182,32182,34 068,25717,-,-

Washington Post estimates Wuhan's COVID deaths at 40000
dow=20942
Italy 37375 tests , 4805 positive , 10% up Lombardia,Piemonte,Lazio
============================================
2020/04/04
China,30+11+47 ; SouthKorea,81 ; Germany,5936 (but ~20% of regions missing)
dow-future=20945,
gold meadal for Australia silver for Austria bronze for Netherlands this week
week 14: https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/actual-epidemic-charts/week14/msg203/#msg203
from the countries with more than 10000 case these had no redoubling this week:
China,SouthKorea,Italy,Austria,Switzerland,Iran,Ne therlands,Germany,Spain,Belgium,Portugal

Italy,34237 tests,4316 positive = stable , Lombardia down, South up
positive-rates , 5 countries with available data : http://magictour.free.fr/pr-0405.GIF
============================================
2020/04/06
Chna,39+10+78 ; SouthKorea,47 ; Germany,1429 (I get 3677, weekend-underreporting)
Singapore : 4Apr- Massive increase today, 120 cases. Half of which have no links to
previous cases. Nation wide circuit breaker 'lockdown' begins Tuesday for a month to battle
--------------------------------
dax=9968,dow=21905(top was 29500,-26%),China A50=12862(top was 14630, -12%)
euro=1.082,oil=32.9,gold=1630,
@a_husby Apr 4 , 27 of 1,000 blood donors in Greater Copenhagen had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.
-------------------------------
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...773v1.full.pdf
> ...unsupported claims of the growth rate of COVID-19 might be lower in tropical countries.
Reduction of lymphocyte at early stage elevates severity and death risk of COVID-19 patients:
----------------------------------
Italy 30271 tests , 3599 positive , last 7 days :
Italy-rate=136,138,117,118,128,126,118,90
Lombardia-rate=292,229,188,215,234,164,215,182
North-rate=149,151,142,131,141,135,149,95
South-rate=93,89,60,78,77,86,52,66

-----------------------------------
cases are down in other European countries as well , pandemic canceled ;-)
dax=10103,dow=22238
==========================================
2020/04/07
dow=22580
China,32+12+30 ; SouthKorea,47 ; Singapore,66 ; Japan,515 ! ; Germany,3834

Italy-info : https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
Italy, epi-curve: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_6aprile%20ENG.pdf
by regions: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bolletino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_2-aprile-2020_appendix.pdf

08:02 MET,DST, dax=10242,dow=22690
dax=10474, dow=23530

COVID-cases by day and country , computer-readable : http://magictour.free.fr/ecdc0407.txt
Italy 33713 tests with 3039 positives , very good

==================================================
2020/04/08
China, 62+12+137 ; SouthKorea,53 ; Japan,252 ; USA,29362
dow=22443 , dax=10236

the counts by day and country are now provided in full lists
my latest : http://magictour.free.fr/ecdc0407.txt
in original format : https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
ECDC-data website : https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/covid-19-coronavirus-data
(when is it being updated ?)

this ECDC-list replaces most of my links and lists above. I'm planning to do the country-charts
in one big picture file so you can easily see where it goes up and where down
I'll keep the Italian and German tables by onset-date
http://magictour.free.fr/w-0407.GIF
----------------------------------------
Japan : emergency, Abe-speech , $900B support , no curfews, no laws, no penalties,
just asking the population to comply
they had got it low so far, I wonder why they couldn't continue that way
----------------------------------------
LDL-cholesterol is able to inactivate virus.
infection fatality rate in the 10 Lombardy towns = 0.67% with working HC
recovered from Covid-19 found nearly a third had surprisingly low levels of antibodies.
Singapore loses control of coronavirus outbreak, announces month-long lockdown
doesn't look so bad to me : ,42,35,47,74,49,65,75,120,66,106
----------------------------------------
ECDC : - no indication at EU/EEA level that the peak of the epidemic has been reached
#come on, it has been reached in the major early affected countries.
Eastern Europe got it late, is some weeks behind, but it did peak in non-East-Europe
---------------------------------------
Italy : 51680 tests (big increase) with 3836 positive (no surprise that positives go up
when testing is up so much) , the positive rates are down everywhere
world-charts are updated http://magictour.free.fr/w-0407.GIF
@pavel23 Wir sind wohl über den Corona-Berg, was die deutschen Intensivstationen betrifft.
dax=10414
Italy epi-curve hits zero in ~1 week
------------------------------------------------------
200 deaths per day in NYC , 8 times more than usual
-------edit---------these are only deaths at home, excluding hospitals
# we saw this in Bergamo and Brescia but I had thought, NY were earlier in the wave
and now it stopped ?! This effect would give ~500K deaths for USA per week ...
2192 deaths at home mar20-apr06, 5 times more than 2019
93
studies,summaries / Re: short summaries
« Last post by tony on April 08, 2020, 02:59:20 am »
Based on officially reported data, shows the following mortality rates by region.

Global: 5.87%
Europe: 9.59%
Africa: 4.61%
Middle East: 4.08%
Latin America: 3.97%
Asia: 3.52%
North America: 3.17%
Oceania: 0.65%
94
nCoV - discussion / Apr07 model UofWA
« Last post by gsgs on April 07, 2020, 07:58:15 am »
Apr.07 , Chris Murray , UofWA  Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
https://covid19-projections.com/
https://covid19forecasthub.eu/reports.html
https://epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/national/india/

----------------------------------------------------------------

COVID-19-deaths until Aug04
peak-date
country
-------------------------

00385,Mar31,Austria
03546,Apr06,Belgium
00303,Apr24,Bulgaria
00166,Apr20,Croatia
00054,Apr19,Cyprus
00411,Apr12,Czechia
00529,Apr09,Denmark
00484,Apr25,Estonia
00225,Apr21,Finland
15058,Apr01,France
08802,Apr14,Germany
00457,Apr18,Greece
00477,Apr23,Hungary
00401,Apr04,Ireland
20300,Mar28,Italy
00125,Apr25,Latvia
05808,Apr10,Netherlands
01953,Apr21,Poland
19209,Mar31,Spain
04182,Apr25,Sweden
66314,Apr17,UK
81766,Apr15,USA

--------------------------------------------
update 0408, 60415,Apr11,USA
update 0413, 68841,Apr10,USA
update 0413, 23791,Apr14,UK
update 0413, 15834,May04,NL
update 0413, 17448,Apr02,F
update 0413, 21130,Mar28,I

IHME,Mar27, USA=81114
IHME,Apr01, USA=93765,
IHME,Apr08, USA=60415,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20300,F=15058,D=8802,B=3546,Ire=0527,NY=13307
IHME,Apr16, USA=60415,UK=66314
IHME,Apr17, USA=68841,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20333,F=15058,D=7080,B=4291,Ire=527,NY=13307
IHME,Apr22, USA=67641,UK=31929,S=10584,I=26867,F=23304,D=6124,B=8128,Ire=1030,NY=24000
IHME,Apr29, USA=72860,UK=31476,S=15625,I=27544,F=24918,D=6946,B=7708,Ire=1404,NY=24314
IHME,May06,USA=134475,UK=40555,S=10196,I=31458,F=28859,D=8543,B=9464,Ire=1698,NY=32132
IHME,May12,USA=147040,UK=43479,S=5769,I=35137,F=31155,D=9905,B=10594,Ire=1736,NY=34068
Brazil=88305,Canada=9945,Mexico=6859,Peru=6428,Turkey=5263,IL=7830,PA=12420,CA=5832,OH=2844
IHME,May29,USA=135109,UK=44389,S=05258,I=43297,F=31466,D=9146,B=9699,Ire=1692,NY=31295
Brazil=125833,Canada=8148,Mex=6859,Peru=19722,Turkey=4759,Russia=7201,
CA=12951,GA=2759,IL=6371,MO=996,NY=31295,OH=3227,PA=6418,TX=2025
IHME,Jun17,USA=201129(by Oct01),UK=43963(Aug04),S=8534,I=35230,F=34602,D=9500,B=11093,Ire=1727
BRA=165960,CDN=8148,MEX=51912,PER=19722,Turkey=5176,Russia=21895
CA=15155,GA=10142,IL=8274,MO=1647,NY=33685,OH=3658,PA=8831,TX=5567
IHME,Jun28,USA=179106,UK=47924(Oct01),S=5754,I=41756,F=30391,D=11555,B=9869,Ire=1790,
BRA=166362,CDN=10053,MEX=88150,PER=36210,Turkey=29895,Russia=19105,PAK=42188
CA=11631,GA=6614,IL=8487,MO=2778,NY=31837,OH=3781,PA=7799,TX=13736
95
studies,summaries / Re: short summaries
« Last post by tony on April 07, 2020, 03:21:36 am »
Super interesting breakdown of COVID-19 stats here in an easy to follow form.

- 90% no symptoms/recovery without hospitalization
- 8.5% hospitalized but survive
- 1.5% get into ICU
- o/w 1% die
- o/w 0.5% survive

96
studies,summaries / Re: short summaries
« Last post by tony on April 06, 2020, 02:17:48 am »
The virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces, according to a new study from National Institutes of Health, CDC, UCLA and Princeton University scientists in The New England Journal of Medicine.
97
expert opinions / April 2020
« Last post by gsgs on April 05, 2020, 12:39:21 pm »
Apr05 ,  Locatelli:
>  it is essential to continue to comply with distance measures. Without it, we would have
> had 30 thousand more deaths  [instead of just 15000 official COVID-19-deaths,
6fold mortality in Mar in Bergamo]
---------------------------------------------------------------
Apr.07 , Chris Murray , UofWA  Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
deaths in the hundreds of thousands , peak on Apr16
estimates fewer total deaths than last week.
It assumes that strict social-distancing methods which flattened the curve in other parts
of the world will be adhered to in the U.S. Studies t
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
81766  COVID-19 deaths  projected by August 4, 2020
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fox News reporter John Roberts , Apr15
Multiple sources are telling Fox News today that the United States now has high confidence that,
while the coronavirus is a naturally occurring virus, it emanated from a virology lab in Wuhan, that,
because of lax safety protocols, an intern was infected, who later infected her boyfriend, and then
went to the wet market in Wuhan, where it then began to spread,”
------------------------------
Ebright,Apr15
 “The first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident, with a virus passing from
bat to human, possibly through another animal. But the first human infection also could have
occurred as a laboratory accident, with a virus accidentally infecting a laboratory worker.”
--------------------------------
 Ebright, Jan25
“at this point there’s no reason to harbor suspicions” the lab may be linked to the virus outbreak.
-----------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Apr30 , Trump:
I think that the World Health Organization should be ashamed of themselves because
they are like the public relations agency for China,
The US pays WHO almost $500 million a year and China pays them $38 million a year,
Whether it's a lot more, it doesn't matter. They shouldn't be making excuses when people
make horrible mistakes, especially mistakes that are causing hundreds of thousands
of people around the world to die.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Apr30 , Pompeo
The World Health Organization simply failed to respond in this case... With respect to
the WHO, we know that they had one job, right? A single mission: To prevent the spread
of a pandemic. We know that the leader of that organization travelled to China and then
declined to declare it a pandemic until everyone in the world knew that was already true,
 
98
actual epidemic charts / week14
« Last post by gsgs on April 04, 2020, 10:51:26 pm »
updated charts :




Code: [Select]
lowest increase in % in week 14
--------------------------------------------------
 1.000000  154 ,  712 ,DiamondPrincess
 1.023453  399 ,83349 ,China
 1.059793  174 ,10156 ,SouthKorea
 1.071429   74 ,  135 ,Brunei
 1.106796    0 ,  114 ,Cambodia
 1.131004 1235 ,  259 ,SanMarino
 1.187215  326 ,  520 ,Lebanon
 1.191275  140 ,  355 ,Taiwan
 1.196911  161 ,  310 ,Jordan
 1.238281   56 , 1585 ,SouthAfrica
 1.275804 1232 ,124632 ,Italy
 1.276596    0 ,  240 ,Vietnam
 1.288282  112 , 5519 ,Norway
 1.294498  125 ,  400 ,Uruguay
 1.336370  160 ,11589 ,Austria
 1.338356  225 ,  977 ,Slovenia
 1.344237   46 ,  863 ,HongKong
 1.347591  316 ,19943 ,Switzerland
 1.348684  243 ,  205 ,Ghana
 1.353982  457 ,  153 ,Venezuela
 1.376000   58 ,  688 ,Bahrain
 1.384615  308 ,  162 ,SriLanka
 1.389216   28 , 1417 ,Iceland
 1.393072   54 , 5550 ,Australia
 1.395210  364 ,  466 ,Andorra
 1.399487  113 , 2729 ,Luxembourg
 1.408768   50 , 1189 ,Singapore
 1.410122  163 , 3483 ,Malaysia
 1.429530    0 ,  213 ,Malta
 1.447232  406 , 1673 ,Greece
 1.453757  337 ,  503 ,Bulgaria
 1.455089  619 ,55743 ,Iran
 1.466859    0 ,  509 ,Latvia
 1.489193   96 , 2067 ,Thailand
 1.499264  127 , 1018 ,Estonia
 1.500000    0 ,  471 ,Slovakia
 1.530186  992 ,16627 ,Netherlands
 1.531350  150 ,96374 ,Germany
 1.545156  106 , 1882 ,Finland
 1.548456  135 , 4362 ,CzechRepublic
 1.570755  540 ,  333 ,Albania
 1.574935  946 ,126168 ,Spain
 1.579243  106 , 1126 ,Croatia
 1.605119  637 ,  878 ,Iraq
 1.612903   10 ,  950 ,NewZealand
 1.628016  913 , 2092 ,Indonesia
 1.661765  471 ,  678 ,Hungary
 1.667189  378 , 4258 ,Denmark
 1.677444  133 , 2179 ,SaudiArabia
 1.684615   91 ,  219 ,Senegal
 1.699899  355 , 1688 ,Mexico
 1.700904  696 , 18431 ,Belgium
 1.741351  578 , 6443 ,Sweden
 1.743918  146 , 2724 ,Pakistan
 1.756979  663 , 1070 ,Egypt
 1.760612  297 , 4604 ,Ireland
 1.764302  116 ,  771 ,Lithuania
 1.765180  252 ,10524 ,Portugal
 1.772436  343 ,  553 ,Tunisia
 1.786908   56 , 7589 ,Israel
 1.790419   33 ,  299 ,Oman
 1.816038   90 ,  770 ,Armenia
 1.826389   76 ,  263 ,Uzbekistan
 1.831776  357 ,  196 ,Mauritius
 1.833333  496 , 3465 ,Ecuador
 1.837020  487 , 1578 ,DominicanRepublic
 1.843424  656 ,  883 ,Morocco
 1.848592   95 ,  525 ,Kazakhstan
 1.856826  245 , 1673 ,Panama
 1.864865  351 ,  483 ,NorthMacedonia
 1.878431   20 ,  479 ,Kuwait
 1.882883  191 ,  209 ,Nigeria
 1.886850  340 ,  617 ,Bosnia
 1.936323  240 , 3497 ,Japan
 1.945302   64 , 4161 ,Chile
 1.947651  296 , 1451 ,Argentina
 1.947905  217 , 3627 ,Poland
 1.990634  404 , 3613 ,Romania
 1.990654  305 ,  426 ,Cyprus
 2.002849  227 , 1406 ,Colombia
 2.049296  418 , 1746 ,Peru
 2.062069  234 ,  299 ,Afghanistan
 2.089905   22 , 1325 ,Qatar
 2.146450 1029 ,41903 ,UnitedKingdom
 2.151441  874 ,86432 ,France
 2.181947  465 , 3094 ,Philippines
 2.191298  166 ,13849 ,Canada
 2.191633  270 , 1624 ,Serbia
 2.195791  283 ,308546 ,UnitedStates
 2.307369  255 , 1096 ,Ukraine
 2.400000  568 ,  264 ,Honduras
 2.420168  208 ,  288 ,Cuba
 2.448141 1039 , 1251 ,Algeria
 2.485010  419 ,10278 ,Brazil
 2.492823   95 ,  521 ,Azerbaijan
 2.596724  209 ,23934 ,Turkey
 2.640351   66 , 1505 ,UnitedArabEmirates
 2.859316  159 ,  752 ,Moldova
 3.003906  250 , 3076 ,India
 3.084094   90 , 4731 ,Russia

Code: [Select]
smallest deathrate
--------------------------------
 1.106796    0 ,  114 ,Cambodia
 1.429530    0 ,  213 ,Malta
 1.276596    0 ,  240 ,Vietnam
 1.500000    0 ,  471 ,Slovakia
 1.466859    0 ,  509 ,Latvia
 1.612903   10 ,  950 ,NewZealand
 1.878431   20 ,  479 ,Kuwait
 2.089905   22 , 1325 ,Qatar
 1.389216   28 , 1417 ,Iceland
 1.790419   33 ,  299 ,Oman
 1.344237   46 ,  863 ,HongKong
 1.408768   50 , 1189 ,Singapore
 1.393072   54 , 5550 ,Australia
 1.238281   56 , 1585 ,SouthAfrica
 1.786908   56 , 7589 ,Israel
 1.376000   58 ,  688 ,Bahrain
 1.945302   64 , 4161 ,Chile
 2.640351   66 , 1505 ,UnitedArabEmirates
 1.071429   74 ,  135 ,Brunei
 1.826389   76 ,  263 ,Uzbekistan
 1.816038   90 ,  770 ,Armenia
 3.084094   90 , 4731 ,Russia
 1.684615   91 ,  219 ,Senegal
 2.492823   95 ,  521 ,Azerbaijan
 1.848592   95 ,  525 ,Kazakhstan
 1.489193   96 , 2067 ,Thailand
 1.579243  106 , 1126 ,Croatia
 1.545156  106 , 1882 ,Finland
 1.288282  112 , 5519 ,Norway
 1.399487  113 , 2729 ,Luxembourg
 1.764302  116 ,  771 ,Lithuania
 1.294498  125 ,  400 ,Uruguay
 1.499264  127 , 1018 ,Estonia
 1.677444  133 , 2179 ,SaudiArabia
 1.548456  135 , 4362 ,CzechRepublic
 1.191275  140 ,  355 ,Taiwan
 1.743918  146 , 2724 ,Pakistan
 1.531350  150 ,96374 ,Germany
 1.000000  154 ,  712 ,DiamondPrincess
 2.859316  159 ,  752 ,Moldova
 1.336370  160 ,11589 ,Austria
 1.196911  161 ,  310 ,Jordan
 1.410122  163 , 3483 ,Malaysia
 2.191298  166 ,13849 ,Canada
 1.059793  174 ,10156 ,SouthKorea
 1.882883  191 ,  209 ,Nigeria
 2.420168  208 ,  288 ,Cuba
 2.596724  209 ,23934 ,Turkey
 1.947905  217 , 3627 ,Poland
 1.338356  225 ,  977 ,Slovenia
 2.002849  227 , 1406 ,Colombia
 2.062069  234 ,  299 ,Afghanistan
 1.936323  240 , 3497 ,Japan
 1.348684  243 ,  205 ,Ghana
 1.856826  245 , 1673 ,Panama
 3.003906  250 , 3076 ,India
 1.765180  252 ,10524 ,Portugal
 2.307369  255 , 1096 ,Ukraine
 2.191633  270 , 1624 ,Serbia
 2.195791  283 ,308546 ,UnitedStates
 1.947651  296 , 1451 ,Argentina
 1.760612  297 , 4604 ,Ireland
 1.990654  305 ,  426 ,Cyprus
 1.384615  308 ,  162 ,SriLanka
 1.347591  316 ,19943 ,Switzerland
 1.187215  326 ,  520 ,Lebanon
 1.453757  337 ,  503 ,Bulgaria
 1.886850  340 ,  617 ,Bosnia
 1.772436  343 ,  553 ,Tunisia
 1.864865  351 ,  483 ,NorthMacedonia
 1.699899  355 , 1688 ,Mexico
 1.831776  357 ,  196 ,Mauritius
 1.395210  364 ,  466 ,Andorra
 1.667189  378 , 4258 ,Denmark
 1.023453  399 ,83349 ,China
 1.990634  404 , 3613 ,Romania
 1.447232  406 , 1673 ,Greece
 2.049296  418 , 1746 ,Peru
 2.485010  419 ,10278 ,Brazil
 1.353982  457 ,  153 ,Venezuela
 2.181947  465 , 3094 ,Philippines
 1.661765  471 ,  678 ,Hungary
 1.837020  487 , 1578 ,DominicanRepublic
 1.833333  496 , 3465 ,Ecuador
 1.570755  540 ,  333 ,Albania
 2.400000  568 ,  264 ,Honduras
 1.741351  578 , 6443 ,Sweden
 1.455089  619 ,55743 ,Iran
 1.605119  637 ,  878 ,Iraq
 1.843424  656 ,  883 ,Morocco
 1.756979  663 , 1070 ,Egypt
 1.700904  696 , 18431 ,Belgium
 2.151441  874 ,86432 ,France
 1.628016  913 , 2092 ,Indonesia
 1.574935  946 ,126168 ,Spain
 1.530186  992 ,16627 ,Netherlands
 2.146450 1029 ,41903 ,UnitedKingdom
 2.448141 1039 , 1251 ,Algeria
 1.275804 1232 ,124632 ,Italy
 1.131004 1235 ,  259 ,SanMarino
99
actual epidemic charts / England
« Last post by gsgs on April 04, 2020, 12:13:59 pm »
UK-"dashboard" , data from regions , download


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...0b19484dd4bb14
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/docume...rd%20Data.xlsx


English charts , 8 regions relative to the average :

http://magictour.free.fr/e-0403a.GIF

you can see, how London bends down 5 days after they changed the strategy
100
studies,summaries / Re: short summaries
« Last post by tony on April 04, 2020, 10:54:50 am »
For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we don’t know the mechanism(s) responsible.

--------------added gsgs-----------
NOAA has daily weather data, I'm trying to do some statistics later
here a new study :
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050526
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