Author Topic: disasters  (Read 38 times)

gsgs

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disasters
« on: January 31, 2020, 10:10:03 am »
2003, SARS , $40B , 8000 deaths
2004, Tsunami , $15B , 230000 deaths
2005, Katrina ,$125B , 1200 deaths
2008, Sichuan earthquake , $150B , >240000 deaths
2008, financial crisis , ~~$5000B
2010, Haiti earthquake, $8B , 160000 deaths
2011, Japan Tsunami , $360B (!) , 16000 deaths
2012, Sandy, $69B
2017, Harvey,Maria,Irma , $280B
2020, Coronavirus [[$120B , 10M deaths]]

------edit 2020/02/01 , new estimate : 3.5M deaths-----------
------edit 2020/02/08 , cancel the estimate above or ~(redouble it), I didn't consider the deaths-time-lag
------edit 2020/02/08 , new estimate : 0.1M deaths (the case-numbers are going down, no pandemic)
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 10:03:40 pm by gsgs »

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epsilon

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  • welcome to ncovinfo , here we discuss the pandemic threat from the new 2019 Coronavirus
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Re: disasters
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2020, 03:30:08 pm »
if (and this is, fortunately, still a rather big 'if') 2019nCoV goes fully pandemic then roughly expect a 50% global attack rate like it has been in past flu pandmics, i.e. 2009 H1N1.

So 3.5 billion infections with 2019nCoV and a CFR of 2% would mean 70 M deaths, surpassing World War II as the greatest disaster so far in human history.

« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 03:33:05 pm by epsilon »

gsgs

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Re: disasters
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2020, 11:45:10 pm »
I took the 20% from a CDC-estimate in Feb.2010, how many US-people had got
pandemic H1N1 by then.

When I first wrote this, I didn't realize that the CFR outside Wuhan is much lower