Author Topic: estimating the cfr  (Read 205 times)

gsgs

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Re: estimating the cfr
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2020, 08:11:25 am »

Wuhan city had about 42,000 people infected by Jan 29, 2020,
[official number : 2251]
https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/files/2020.02.10.20021774v1.full.pdf
 the number of infected persons in other provinces fell within the range of 9-15,000,
[meant presumably 9000-15000 on Feb.09]
[official number = 6351]
most conservative estimate of 21,000 infections in the cities in
Hubei province except Wuhan, [on Feb.09]
[official number : 12729]

so the official numbers were underestimating his conservative estimates
by a factor of
19 (Wuhan,Jan29)
1.6 ( Hubei ex Wuhan , Feb09 )
1.4 ( China ex Hubei, Feb09 )

epsilon

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Re: estimating the cfr
« Reply #16 on: February 14, 2020, 02:28:23 pm »
My personal estimate (educated guess) is that prevalence of infections already reached up to 1% of the Wuhan population (i.e. 100k of 10M) before they shut the city down.

Also, very recent paper estimated that 900 infected air passengers travelled from Wuhan tp 300+ cities outside china in the 2 weeks before the travel ban.

Yet another study estimated that 3 imported seed cases spark community outbreak with 50% probability.

So if those studies are not too far off, it seems pandemic is inevitable.

Concerning cfr I still think it could be "only" 0.5% BUT only with fully functional health system. Otherwise 5%, 15% ?
In one study, 15% need at least additional oxygen, 5% ICU.

Health system collapse is, IMO, the most worrysome risk with COVID19 because the shortage of hospital cpacity and protective equipment (and the new studies showing very high infection risk for doctors and nurses could lead not only to large number massive fear-based non-compliance of HC workers)
 




gsgs

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Re: estimating the cfr
« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2020, 04:55:53 am »

can it be worse here than in Wuhan ?
And with your estimate Wuhan has a very low CFR.
They have the 3 weeks death-delay since shutdown now.
And why is the pandemic inevitable, when China apparently succeeded to control it
despite all these initial cases without knowledge what helps ?
Are we so much worse than China ? Then quickly change the laws for
quarantine and such, import Chinese doctors and nurses,.