Author Topic: estimating the cfr  (Read 220 times)


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Re: estimating the cfr
« on: February 13, 2020, 12:25:44 pm »
apparantly in no city, in no country except maybe Wuhan it did take off yet.

Yes. That's a very interesting observation that I cannot explain at the moment.

Given the extremely explosive epidemiologic parameters (latest research: R0>4, doubling each 2.4 days!) we should be really seeing signs of large scale outbreaks some where else by now.  It's impossible that they perfectly identified an isolated all exported cases everywhere.

But all we see is small to mid sized, controlled clusters of 50-100 cases in Singapor and on the cruise ship.

Maybe its just too early.
Remember in Wuhan it was silently circulating from end of November until end of December when the first signs of pneumonia clusters revealed themselves.

The next 2-4 weeks are key !