Author Topic: estimating the cfr  (Read 220 times)

gsgs

  • Administrator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 196
    • View Profile
Re: estimating the cfr
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2020, 08:11:25 am »

Wuhan city had about 42,000 people infected by Jan 29, 2020,
[official number : 2251]
https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/files/2020.02.10.20021774v1.full.pdf
 the number of infected persons in other provinces fell within the range of 9-15,000,
[meant presumably 9000-15000 on Feb.09]
[official number = 6351]
most conservative estimate of 21,000 infections in the cities in
Hubei province except Wuhan, [on Feb.09]
[official number : 12729]

so the official numbers were underestimating his conservative estimates
by a factor of
19 (Wuhan,Jan29)
1.6 ( Hubei ex Wuhan , Feb09 )
1.4 ( China ex Hubei, Feb09 )