Author Topic: estimating the cfr  (Read 220 times)

epsilon

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  • welcome to ncovinfo , here we discuss the pandemic threat from the new 2019 Coronavirus
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Re: estimating the cfr
« Reply #15 on: February 14, 2020, 02:28:23 pm »
My personal estimate (educated guess) is that prevalence of infections already reached up to 1% of the Wuhan population (i.e. 100k of 10M) before they shut the city down.

Also, very recent paper estimated that 900 infected air passengers travelled from Wuhan tp 300+ cities outside china in the 2 weeks before the travel ban.

Yet another study estimated that 3 imported seed cases spark community outbreak with 50% probability.

So if those studies are not too far off, it seems pandemic is inevitable.

Concerning cfr I still think it could be "only" 0.5% BUT only with fully functional health system. Otherwise 5%, 15% ?
In one study, 15% need at least additional oxygen, 5% ICU.

Health system collapse is, IMO, the most worrysome risk with COVID19 because the shortage of hospital cpacity and protective equipment (and the new studies showing very high infection risk for doctors and nurses could lead not only to large number massive fear-based non-compliance of HC workers)