Author Topic: estimating the cfr  (Read 220 times)

epsilon

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Re: estimating the cfr
« on: February 08, 2020, 07:29:23 am »
@gsgs:
Quote
take cases outside Wuhan or outside Hubei , that gives much more cases
and still relatively few deaths.

Yes. And whats even more interesting: Much more "discharged" cases too.
I did a very rough calculation CFR = fatal / (fatal + discharged) for all non-hubei provinces and it was only about 1%.

This seems roughly consistent with the Christian Althaus estimate (that I posted recently and that I have much confidence in his model and method) which is based only on non-china cases and is now at CFR=1.7%


This reminds me more and more of the situation with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic where the CFR was initially estimated 10% then 1% and in the end it was like less than 0.1%, i.e. really "just the flu".

The other lesson from 2009 H1N1, however, was that it could NOT be contained. The global attack rate was 50%. We were lucky that the CFR turned out so benign. Hopefully it will be similar this time.

However, there is a freightening scenario with the new Virus even if the final CFR would "only" be something like 0.5% and a 50% global attack rate which would still be a devastating pandemic with millions of deaths.