nCoV_info

"Obviously many cases were unconfirmed, especially in Wuhan. There were those 5M people
leaving the city at that time.It is likely that severe cases had a greater probability
of being confirmed."

Th big question is: How prevalent was the virus already in the general community when Wuhan Quarantaine begun ?
My gut feeling is at least 1% prevalence, maybe even 10% obviously (and hopefully) this would imply many more mild cases than assumed previously.
Most models based on exported cases put the pre-shutdown absolut case numbers between 25k and 150k, corresponding to roughly 100k/10M = 1% prevalence.
 
So there is, unfortunately, still large uncertainty of one order of magnitude (factor 10) about the actual pathogenity/severity of this virus.

What we really need are seroprevalence studies for 2019nCoV antibodies in every large community.

My hope is, that sero prevalence is very high already because this means that the vast majority of cases are mild or asymptomatic cases.
But until we have the data, this may be just wishful thinking.