nCoV_info

I generally avoid drawing conclusions from official china numbers from Wuhan/Hubei (I have some more trust in the chinese numbers outside Hubei). This is not to say, the official lie intentionally, rather I think it is simply a problem of capacity and chaos in an near-overwhelmed health system)

Fortunately there are many studies now, that model the spread and severity of the epidemic using only non-china data and air travel models.

The other point we all should keep in mind is that you cannot simply mix numbers from before Jan 23 (i.e. before the drastic isolation measures) with the numbers after the shutdown.

Before the shutdown we probably had real exponential community transmission with case doubling of 3 days. (You can even use the official numbers to see that because for case doubling estimation it does not matter whether the numbers are off by a factor of ten)

Now, after the sutdown (plus one incubation period) i.e. roughly after February 1, we see about linear growth which means that the isolation measures work in so far as exponential spread is stopped (R_effective <= 1)
Unfortunately there is still no sign that the isolation measures are enough to not only slow down but actually END the epidemic (R_effective << 1)

This is crucial, because isolation cannot be maintained forever.