10 February 2020 - Imperial College London
Report 4: Severity of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV)
(Download Report 4)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdfthis assumes a time-lag of 22.2 days from "confirmed" to "death"
and it assumes that all cases are confirmed ; CFR=deaths/(confirmed cases)
My data starts Jan.25, before that there were 572 confirmed cases in Wuhan,
157 in Hubei ex Wuhan, 558 in China ex Hubei.
Currently there are ~70 daily deaths in Wuhan, 18 in Hubei ex Wuhan, 7 in China ex Hubei.
If those cases pre-Jan.25 were all attributed to Jan.18 , then with the 22-day-lag
I get CFR=12.2 in Wuhan, CFR=11.5 in Hubei ex Wuhan, 1.3% in China ex Hubei.
Obviously many cases were unconfirmed, especially in Wuhan. There were those 5M people
leaving the city at that time.It is likely that severe cases had a greater probability
of being confirmed.
You would expect deaths climbing sharply after 10-20 days already - even if 22 were the average.
I do not see this. Deaths in Hubei ex Wuhan (where I'd assume not much underreporting)
were 2,6,12,12,12,13,15,16,16,18,5,14,18,18
And we clearly have no exponential increase in confirmed cases as they assume
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I'm unsure, that all doesn't make so much sense to me.
The CFR might be changing. The CFR might be different in Wuhan.
The 22-day-lag might be too long.
(CFR=deaths per all infections).
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and then we have "severe cases" . These counts were up quite a lot since Feb.03,
but now they somehow have redefined "severe":
daily reported new severe cases in Hunan Jan.26-Feb.09 : 109,400,189,89,106,200,268,139,442,377,564,918,119 3,52,258
daily reported new severe cases in China ex Hunan , Jan.26-Feb.09 :
28,115,74,42,51,68,47,47,50,54,96,44,87,135,38 (212)