thanks a lot.
You know, I'd been asking for such probability estimates since
2006-H5N1 birdflu !?!
But experts were very reluctant to give some.
Where do I stand currently ...A:50 B:20 C:30 (2020/02/10)
why do you think it's likely mild , after correcting the CFR to 1.7 in the other post
(3 weeks lag until death)
I mean, it could become mild, killing the host is ineffective, well,
but no recombination in sight and coronavirus does proofreading as I recently learned.
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we may find/develope some efficient drugs
it may go down in warm weather
it may take some months until it is in Europe,USA
we may have vaccine (I know, it takes a year because of the testing
but maybe the testing can/will be reduced if it's severe.
how likely is each of these ... I should think about it and try to give estimates.
when you hear the news in Germany you must think that they
have some secret recipe how to handle it, that it won't do much bad.
That seems to be what government, reporters, normal people think.