Author Topic: Scenarios for the coming months  (Read 63 times)

epsilon

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 27
  • welcome to ncovinfo , here we discuss the pandemic threat from the new 2019 Coronavirus
    • View Profile
Re: Scenarios for the coming months
« on: February 13, 2020, 12:34:26 pm »
Sorry, I did not clearly express myself.
What I wanted to say is not that the virus itself necessarily mutated to a milder form, but that the early media reporting, case and death counting etc. was very much biased.

The reason for this was that, most probably, that they completely overlooked the mass of many very mild/asymptomatic cases.
In the end it came apparent that mild infections were not only 10x under reported, but more than 100x.

I still hope that this is playing out similarly with COVID19.

What if virus prevalence in Wuhan is not 1% but already 10% of population with most of them only a little headache and runny nose ?

This would also explain the slowing of the spread in Wuhan due to increasing herd immunity.