Author Topic: Scenarios for the coming months  (Read 63 times)

epsilon

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Scenarios for the coming months
« on: February 09, 2020, 06:33:33 pm »
I see three major possible scenarios for the future development of 2019nCoV:

    A) It will eventually be contained like SARS in 2003 (though only after about 10 times larger outbreak magnitude)

    B) It will go fully pandemic like 2009 H1N1 (>50% global attack rate) and very low cfr (<0.1%) due to many mild cases.

    C) Will go fully Pandemic but with relatively high 1-2% cfr i.e. more like 1918 spanish flu.

Personally I would put the following probabilities : A=>20%, B=>60%, C=>20%

What do you think ?


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gsgs

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Re: Scenarios for the coming months
« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2020, 07:21:42 am »
thanks a lot.
You know, I'd been asking for such probability estimates since
2006-H5N1 birdflu !?!
But experts were very reluctant to give some.

Where do I stand currently ...A:50 B:20 C:30  (2020/02/10)

why do you think it's likely mild , after correcting the CFR to 1.7 in the other post
(3 weeks lag until death)

I mean, it could become mild, killing the host is ineffective, well,
but no recombination in sight and coronavirus does proofreading as I recently learned.

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we may find/develope some efficient drugs
it may go down in warm weather
it may take some months until it is in Europe,USA
we may have vaccine (I know, it takes a year because of the testing
but maybe the testing can/will be reduced if it's severe.

how likely is each of these ... I should think about it and try to give estimates.

when you hear the news in Germany you must think that they
have some secret recipe how to handle it, that it won't do much bad.
That seems to be what government, reporters, normal people think.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2020, 07:52:39 am by gsgs »

epsilon

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Re: Scenarios for the coming months
« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2020, 07:55:23 am »
Quote
why do you think it's likely mild

I have to admit it is partly due to wishful thinking. But the other reason is my experience with how the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemics played out.

I vividly remember the reports from Mexico at the time with CFR estimates of 10% then 1-5%the media full with comparions to 1918 spanish flu,  and the reports of healthy young patients all over the world on ventilators with severe pneumonia.

As the pandemic unfolded, two things became more and more clear: 1. it was hopeless to try to contain it and 2. somehow the proportion of very mild cases  increased dramatically until in the end it was even less serious than the seasonal flu.


gsgs

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Re: Scenarios for the coming months
« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2020, 08:05:49 am »
yes, but I think this is different.
No recombination in sight and coronavirus does proofreading
--> low mutation rate.
SARS, MERS did also not become milder.

epsilon

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Re: Scenarios for the coming months
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2020, 12:34:26 pm »
Sorry, I did not clearly express myself.
What I wanted to say is not that the virus itself necessarily mutated to a milder form, but that the early media reporting, case and death counting etc. was very much biased.

The reason for this was that, most probably, that they completely overlooked the mass of many very mild/asymptomatic cases.
In the end it came apparent that mild infections were not only 10x under reported, but more than 100x.

I still hope that this is playing out similarly with COVID19.

What if virus prevalence in Wuhan is not 1% but already 10% of population with most of them only a little headache and runny nose ?

This would also explain the slowing of the spread in Wuhan due to increasing herd immunity.