Author Topic: Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline  (Read 113 times)

epsilon

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Re: Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
« on: February 09, 2020, 05:41:53 am »
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numbers are going down, right ?

Not going down, just growing less exponentially (possibly polynomially only)

This is to be expected with the massive quarantaine measures in place.

Mass quarantaine started Jan. 23, then it took another incubation period or two (one week) and there was also the inevitable backlog and delay in testing & reporting.

So we now finally see the effect of the drastic social distancing control measures, whose goal is to reduce the effective reproductive number R_eff as much as possible.

Quite disturbingly, however, the number of new infections though not increasing any more like in the full exponential phase, seems not to not go down significantly.

So there is still a lot of infections going on despite the fact that the big cities are almost completely locked down with practically zero social community interaction (outside of the hospitals) any more.

This is copncerning because it points to a very high base reproductive Number R0 (initially estimated at 2.6 but maybe much higher, some authors put it at 4 or above) and/or other means of infection, e.g. airborne ?