Author Topic: updates  (Read 897 times)

tony

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updates
« on: March 19, 2020, 06:22:49 am »
I make a new thread to continue my updates, mainly when USA sleeps,
Asia,Europe . I hope, that's ok ?
continued from my posts in this thread :
https://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=79252&page=5

please no pictures,videos,long stories, individual stories - just links,data,statistics
mark speculative,unconfirmed stories with a preceding "speculative" or such

--------------------------------------------------

my main links
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.finanzen.net/index/dax-realtime
https://twitter.com/lookner

who : speech: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---28-february-2020
-----------------------------------
China : down again , at usual speed , updats here:
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/actual-epidemic-charts/case-numbers/msg101/#msg101
----------------------------
Korea : still increasing a lot but some first small signs to slow down f
rom exponential . Could be similar to China in early
Feb. . But it's very uncertain at this point, just 10 data points,
not distinguished by region yet.
http://magictour.free.fr/KOR0228A.BMP
maybe I can add descriptions later
Korea,logarithmic,Feb18-Feb28,
these daily tables :
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
uhh, just I see the new updates of >300+500 new cases, included these
only 16 deaths and 7 critical in Korea ; CFR<1% ; in general CFR~2%
-----------------------------------------------------
S speculativ -- headline : Coronavirus plan for London sees 40000 dead and burials in
mass graves [London pop=4-8M , 0.5-1% dead ]
-----------------------------------------------------
dax=11917,dow=25532
----------------------------------------------
03:30 (all times in UTC=GMT worldtime)
Toronto. A man in his 80s with a travel history to Egypt
it could be in Africa already with poor surveillance
----------------------------------
Agenda Free TV said :
> Might be time to just say, it's spreading around the world, whoever's gonna get
> it will get it, and let's deal with that

no !!! that's the Trump/USA/Germany etc. agenda ;
anti China, anti WHO ,
WHO recommends the drastic Chinese measures to stop it.

hopefully there will be some papers, some modelings soon.
Those who survive will make the statistics what method was better in the end.
Both for economy and #of lives, diseases.

These successful Chinese measures had been absent from all the
previous modelings, AFAIK. We _urgently_ need the updates (IMO,gsgs)
--------------------------------------------
> A rough calculation suggests anywhere from 150,000 to 3 million global infections...
From the American Council On Sciene And Health:
------------------------------------------
U.S., people shouldn’t wear face masks to prevent the spread of infectious illnesss,
according to CDC and DHHS
Dr. Amesh Adalja; The CDC recommendation on masks stands, a spokesman

------------------------------------------
Major bank economist says the coronavirus market reaction ‘boggles the mind’
[# I wonder what he knows about epidemiology, the models, the panic.
# what did boggle my mind was the market in 2008,2002 with much larger declines
# and for what ? just psychology : WMDs in Iraq, debt-awareness ]
The situation in China is even worse than you think, says this analyst with a history
of accurate calls
# the must mean economically since COVID is under control in China
-------------------------------------------------
I don't understand the current bruhaha about every single new case
in any country. Reminds me to 2009. It can't be stopped with current methods,
only delayed by some days or even weeks.
Our fate lies in our immune system. And the vaccine.
---------------------------------------------------------------

gold strangely down ?!? I have no longer access to my futures-demo account,
where to get actual futures on non-wall-street-hours ?
https://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
last I saw was VIX=26.00 , dow=25530
Trump: Coronavirus is Democrates' new hoax
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/trump-says-the-coronavirus-is-the-democrats-new-hoax.html
# he reassures that they were doing everything and were ready.
" We are ready. We are ready. Totally ready.”
# but then he explains why : controlling the borders, the people who enter.
# That reminds me to George Bush and H5N1.
CNBC gives the dow at 25409.36 , gold at 1587.3 and they use cookies
https://liveindex.org/nikkei-futures/ : nikkey=21147.5 , doesn't change

> Global stock markets have lost $6 trillion in value …
# they had won much more in the last ~year
. Investors are selling “profitable positions to raise cash during a market rout,”
U.S. stock futures point to further sharp declines …
-------------------------------------------------------
Coronavirus in China perhaps as early as October
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.19.20024851v1
(#52 genomes , but see below : Dec01(93 genomes)
-------------------------------------------
Brazil/SPBR1/2020/02/26 is similar to Germany/BavPat1/2020
---------------------------------------------
TMRCA = mid Nov-early Dec, 93 genomes , virological.org
-------------------------------------------

sorry, I can't find actual index-futures. IMO those ae the best pandemic-danger
presictors currently. Besides numbers from Korea,Italy,Iran

Italy : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy
--------------------------------
@HelenBranswell I think vaccine that is available to the masses will take a helluva
lot longer than a year
« Last Edit: March 19, 2020, 06:31:03 am by tony »

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tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2020, 06:36:48 am »
2020/03/01
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.statnews.com/tag/coronavirus/

---------------------------------------------------
Hubei ex Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected Feb14-Feb29:
4475,4015,3669,3050,2208,1647,1886
1326,1247,1075,889,720,648,543
431,272
------------------------------------------------------
Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected Feb14-Feb29:
4695,4107,3999,3739,3543,3038,4118
4655,3377,2543,2275,2059,2183,2096
1322,1008
------------------------------------------------------
South Korea, cases are going down today ? fewer than yesterday at 09:00
066,073,188,207,204,125,250,
446,424,905,591
--------------------------------------------
world ex China : 7155 cases, 108 deaths, 204 serious/critical
Italy : 1128,29,105
South Korea : 3526,17,10
Iran : 593,43,-
France : 100,2,8
Europe : 1485,31,129 , assuming that 1/3 of severe cases
will die the current CFR-estimate for Europe is 5.0 , but there could be a delay
from mild to severe to death , although we didn't see much of this in China.

it could be, that most countries are testing symptomatic, severe cases first.
The best CFR that we currently have is South Korea with ~0.6% and they
are testing lots of sect-members routinely.
But this is with a still good working health care and it's only going on since ~2 weeks.
But symptoms typically get worse in ~20% of cases only after 2 weeks
(see the report from that Wuhan doctor who treated the very first cases)

------------------------
I can't get WHO-speeches, last from Feb.28 but "This page cannot be found" errors
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/news
the audio works, 50min
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings#
transcript ?
03:00-04:20 Tedros saw no community transmissions on Feb.28 and concluded that it could
still be contained. He no longer recommends China-like-lockdowns, AFAICS.
The key were contact-tracing, isolate patients.
> although : 05:00 And to take an all government, all society approach
and he mentions the China-mission-report (which recommends lockdowns) but without
comment
>12:50 "interrupt transmission" still no mention of lockdown, traffic reduction
I stop now at 14:00

-----------ahh, now I find the transcript : https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---28-february-2020
Tedros opening remarks only. zero hits on "lock" zero hits on "traffic" zero hits on "cancel"

---------------------------------------
@kakape , 5h
It may feel like every new death, every new country with a case changes picture.
But in broad terms things happening exactly as experts have expected them to.
# but they didn't expect the containment in China
That most people don’t feel that way is a sign of how terrible many officials have
been at communicating what to expect.
--------------------
kakape Feb 28
Just got off the phone with Steven and I think he makes an important point here.
IF countries are willing to take some extreme measures of social distancing to curb
#covid19 spread, it will be assuming China manages resurgence well. If it turns out
no, that will change picture...
[and he started the long thread about it, see the other thread , expecting this
would cause a major discussion the next days :
> It may well dominate the #covid19 debate in the coming days. ]
------------------------------
now it seems he no longer talks about these measures, like everyone else, sigh
---------------------------------------------------------
podcast with Marc Lipsitch , I can't get it with firefox
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/deep-background-with-noah-feldman/id1460055316#episodeGuid=1ccb9800-387e-11ea-a8b6-8f3e0bd1764d
-------------------------------------------------------
Total in South Korea now 3736 cases, 20 deaths. (CFR 0.5)
Iran=978cases,54deaths (CFR down to 5.5%)
----------------------------------------------
a scientist argues that genomic evidence suggests the coronavirus has been
spreading in Washington State for 6 weeks
This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly
from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19,
few hundred current infections.
---------------------------------------------------
Today/video: Neal Ferguson calculates 1000 infections per death correlation.
# surprise ! Ferguson down to CFR=0.1 ??
> The point is the mortality is 1%, but due to a lag in deaths there are 1000
> cases "behind" a death.
# for UK ? why should it be so much lower in UK than elsewhere
------------------------I can't find the 50s Ferguson video------------
https://nzenews.com/2020/02/29/coronavirus-what-are-the-chances-of-dying/
Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result
in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.
death rate was ten times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.
under 30s – there were eight deaths in 4,500 cases.
Ferguson, suspects China will have handiest showed 10% of its overall coronavirus infections to start with.
# what does that mean ("handiest") ? >90% underreporting ?
---------------------------------
in Daegu, 2569 cases. 898 in hospital, 1662 waiting at home for a hospital bed.
------------------------------------
Iran,official,
The slope of the # Corona chart will continue to rise in the coming days, staying home,
restricting traffic, reducing travel, avoiding unnecessary travel, canceling any
nationwide gatherings along with personal hygiene tips, the only means of control.
#Covid_0 will be in the coming weeks
--------
The Islamic Council closes until further notice.
--------------------------------------------
Iran calls on people to stay at home as death toll rises to 54
--------------------------------------

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2020, 06:43:46 am »
2020/03/02
https://twitter.com/lookner
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
{ In a few days the new interactive website will replace this spreadsheet }
-------------------------------------
China 80026 2912 7110
SouthKorea 4212 26 34
Italy 1694 34 140
DiamondPrincess 705 6 36
Iran 978 54 175
Japan 256* 6 19
country,confirmed,deaths,severe
Europe:2214,37,170 ;
estimated deaths/confirmed-ratio Europe:4.2%;SKorea=0.9%;ChinaExHubei=1.5%
------------------------
big increase of cases in Italy 1128-->1694
Feb21-Mar01,17,59,73,77,93,78,250,238,240,568
7 cases in SanMarino (population=30000)
China cases are further down : Hubei ex Wuhan : 272-->200 , Wuhan : 1008-->603 ,
in hospital : -->28912-->26901 [39073 1 week ago]; deaths 35-->42 (up)
[106,96,149,68,52,26,41,45,34,42 in the last 10 days]
[32143 under observation, halfed in the last 10 days]
waiting for Korea updates
------------------------------------------------
was it mainly the contact-tracing or the lockdowns that stopped it in China ?
See th WHO-China-Mission-report about their huge sophisticated
contact tracing with AI and apps and many 5-teams
Neither contact-tracing nor lockdowns are included in the modelings, afaik
-------------------------------------------------
03:22 GMT , still no update from South Korea , unusual.
South Korea should be the first to watch, whether it can be contained as in China
05:30 GMT , S.Korea reports ~476 new cases, but the official update 09:00 is still not out
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

2020/03/01/~05:00UTC , world ex China : 7155 cases, 108 deaths, 204 serious/critical
2020/03/02/06:11UTC , world ex China=9048,137,291
07:30 , dax=12025(+1.6%),dow=25604(+0.8%),gold=1601, still no korea-data
12048,25631 just 2min later
vdax : https://www.finanzen.net/index/vdax_new/charttool
DAX +2.62% now - https://www.finanzen.net/index/dax-realtime
pandemic canceled

speed is critical :
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/01/speed-is-critical-as-coronavirus-spreads-in-u-s-officials-face-daunting-task-of-tracing-case-contacts/
# you can automate this. Everyone gets a tracking device to either communicate
# by satellite or directly with other people's devices or WLAN-points.
# It all goes to the central Chinese computer who tells the people where (not) to go .
# There will be warnings when you enter risky areas or when you become a risky person yourself.
# Your device also records coughs,temperature, fatigue,heartbeat.
# Hiding your risk-status should be made illegal.
# This might eliminate infectious diseases in some decades.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Italy gives a permanently updated page, no history , archive.org has some snapshots:
when there were 229,283,374,400,528,888,1694 cases . I saved those to my HD.
OK, I looked at these : I can't see that they concentrate it in Lombardia and that it
decreases elsewhere or even that it increases slower elsewhere.
As we saw it in China with Wuhan.
---------------------------------------------------------------
DAX=11899,Dow=25603
150 German cases :
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Fallzahlen.html

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2020, 06:47:39 am »
2020/03/03
https://twitter.com/lookner
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

----------------------------------------------------
SouthKorea,4812,34,45
Italy,2036,52,140
DiamondPrincess,706,6,36
Iran,1501,66,?
Japan,274,6,23
WorldExChina,10776,180,284 ; estimated CFR=2.55%l
---------------------
SouthKorea_EX_Daegu,73,75,109,130,168,87,168*,81
*:09:00-00:00=15hours instead of 24
still, this doesn't look exponential outside Daegu
----------------------------------
Italy : all regions
------------------------------
dax=12027(+1.4%(against close?)) , dow=26419 (-1.1%)
yesterday dow=+5% !! (26703)
https://www.finanzen.net/index/dax-realtime
they say because of announced government measures, cutting interest rates
2020/03/02/07:30 , dax=12025(+1.6%),dow=25604(+0.8%)
2020/03/03/07:00 , dax=12033,dow=26544 where the 5% ? 25409-26703
2020/03/03/07:04 , dax=11971,dow=26545
------------------------------
HubeiExWuhan : 200--->123 , Wuhan : 603-->489
-----------------------------------
Italy,accumulated
cases,deaths,severe , Lombardia,Veneto,Emilia-Romagna,other
Feb24-18, 222, 6, 1 , 172, 33, 18, 6
Feb25-12, 283, 7, 1 , 212, 38, 23, 18
Feb26-12, 374,12, 1 , 258, 71, 30, 28
Feb26-18, 400,12, 3 , 258, 71, 47, 39
Feb27-12, 528,14, 42 , 305, 98, 97, 84
Feb28-18, 888,21, 46 , 531,151,145,128
Mar01-18,1577,34, 83 , 984,263,285,162
Mar02-18,1835,52,149 ,1254,273,335,174
5,33,0,27,53,112,10
5,7,17,50,48,140,50
12,10,11,45,44,34,12

STAT-article about Trump,vaccine : https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/02/trumps-tone-toward-pharma-shifts-coronavirus/
list of COVID-19 drugs and vaccines : https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-drugs-and-vaccines-in-development/
08:53GMT,DAX=12144,Dow=26675
stocks China vs. USA , 3 months : http://magictour.free.fr/ch-us3.GIF
10:48: 835 new cases and 11 new deaths in Iran. (Source)
08:15: 374 new cases in South Korea. (Source)
01:15: 477 new cases and 6 new deaths in South Korea. (Source)
S. Korea's virus cases near 5,200; President Moon declares war on virus
Deputy leader of Iran's parliament says 23 members [out of 290] of parliament in Iran have
been infected with coronavirus.
--------------------------------------------
WHO on Mar02 : the cases in Korea mostly from 5 known clusters
surveillance measures are working and Korea’s epidemic can still be contained.
containment of COVID-19 is feasible and must remain the top priority for all countries.
Our message to all countries is: this is not a one-way street. We can push this virus back.
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---2-march-2020
-----------------------------------------------

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2020, 06:50:28 am »
2020/03/04
https://twitter.com/lookner
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

SouthKorea,5328,33,45
Iran,2336,77,-
Italy,2502,79,140
WorldExChina,12817,222,285

ItalyExLVR : 12,10,11,45,44,34,12,81 too bad
SKoreaExD :

0301,Europe,1487,31,129 ; Europe-Italy,359,2,24
0302,Europe,2214,37,170 ; Europe-Italy,520,3,30
0303,Europe,
0304,Europe,3365,85,157 ; Europe-Italy,863,6,17

last 7 days
Hubei-Wuhan : 648,543,431,272,200,123,116
Wuhan : 2183,2096,1322,1008,603,489,391

SouthKorea-Daegu : 73,75,109,130,168,87,168,80,111
almost under control outside Daegu ; like China ex Wuhan
that looks to me as if it can be contained with "war against the virus"
and no, South Korea is not communist,one party, draconian,lying etc.
[what all had been said here and at flutrackers,twitter when cases in
China started to decline ]

now, let's see what Italy is doing ... dorn't seem to be enough, so far
Germany,France, ... they don't take it serious yet.
That probably means, what it will become much harder once they start
to take it serious and there are lots of cases already. (IMO)


Euro12 : 17, 59, 77, 77,107,169,257,317,302,708,520,622
Euro12-Italy : 0, 0, 4, 1, 12, 26, 73, 79, 82,127,173,156



---------------------------------------------------------------
dax=11951(+0.9%),usa500=3034(+1.2%),euro=1.115

07:30UTC,dax=12001(+0.1%),dow=26300(+1.5%),gold=16 37(+0.1%),VIX=28
11:00UTC,dow=26469

Italy : http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1_1_1.jsp?menu=notizie&id=4153

ItalyExLVR : 12,10,11,45,44,34,12,81,110 too bad

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2020, 06:56:03 am »
2020/03/05
https://twitter.com/lookner
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
https://twitter.com/DataCoronavirus

[a forum like this is better than twitter : you can edit posts, scrolling is easier, replies are
better organised; but you find things easier at twitter, twitter is much bigger than TBM ]

[since today I can no longer access google spreadsheets without registering]

SouthKorea 5766 35 27 25 88
Italy 3089 107 297 - 276
Iran 2922 92 - - 552
DiamondPrincess 706 6 34 - 40
Japan 319 6 29 - 10
France 285 4 15 - 12
Germany 262 0 - 2 16
Spain 202 2 7 - 2
UnitedStates 158 11 2 6 9
world-China,14973,273,421,47,1259


Italy has more deaths than Iran now

Hubei-Wuhan : 543,431,272,200,123,116,77
Wuhan : 2096,1322,1008,603,489,391,439 [slightly up !]

South Korea gives some extra tables now, e.g. by age,sex,region, CFRs
Daegu=405,Gyeongbuk=89,rest=22 (!)
Soth Korea-Daegu-Gyeongbuknb= (135),34,32,56,57,93,36,64,19,22
stopping outbreaks is more difficult than preventing them
-----------------------------
BREAKING: Italy closing all schools and universities across the country due to coronavirus - ANSA
------------------------------------
acute care hospital beds by country : https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESCrbl5XsAEfz4w?format=jpg&name=large
---------------------------------------
daily WHO : But at present, we see linked epidemics in several countries, where most
cases can still be traced to known contacts or clusters of cases, in, although we see
signs of community transmission in some countries.
Our view continues to be that containment of COVID-19 must be the top priority
for all countries, but at the same time, countries should be preparing for sustained
community transmission.
That’s why we’re suggesting a comprehensive approach.
With early, aggressive measures, countries can stop transmission and save lives.
# there was community transmission in China, they still got it down
----------------------------------------------
Germany , daily;(09:00 UTC) new COVID-19 cases Feb25-Mar08 by federal(sub)country :
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-F%C3%A4lle_in_Deutschland

Code: [Select]
BW,  1,  2,  3,  4,  4,  1,  4,  7, 18, 21, 26, 25, 66, 17
Ba,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  4,  6, 10, 13,  4, 27, 38, 31,108
Be,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  2,  3,  3,  6,  9,  4, 12
Br,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  4
HB,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  0,  1,  1,  0,  1,  0,  0
HH,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  1,  0,  1,  5,  4,  1,  4
He,  0,  0,  0,  0,  3,  5,  2,  0,  0,  2,  1,  1,  1,  3
MV,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  3,  1,  1,  0,  2,  1
Ni,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  0,  3,  6,  8,  1,  2, 12
NR,  1,  1,  2, 21,  5, 36, 20, 15, 10, 64,106, 65, 46, 92
RP,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  1,  0,  0,  0,  5,  1,  2,  5,  4
SL,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  0,  1,  2,  1
Sa,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  0,  0,  1,  2,  6
SA,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0
SH,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  1,  0,  0,  0,  1,  4,  1,  0,  1
Th,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0,  0,  0,  0,  1,  0
De,  2,  3,  5, 27, 13, 51, 33, 38, 52,109,185,150,163,265

2020/03/05/08:00UTC,dax=12157,dow=26737,gold=1639
08:27,dax=12136,dow=26712 ; 08:29 ,12111,26700 ; 09:00,12098,26662
09:10,12033,26600

chart world-China , Feb22-Mar04 : http://magictour.free.fr/w-c0304.gif
increases more linear than exponential

----------------------------------------------
Ferguson : the battle [against COVID) is over, the world had failed
[ the number of countries affected is so big now ]
# contradicting WHO,Tedros
# and China had already won the "war"
and Bruce Aylward gives this interview in British TV :
https://www.channel4.com/news/coronavirus-who-expert-explains-mortality-rate-and-threat-to-kids-after-trip-to-wuhan
[Video ; "you can manage it" ]

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2020, 07:02:05 am »
2020/03/06
https://twitter.com/lookner
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus%3Cbr%20/%3E/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
https://twitter.com/DataCoronavirus

I added a new Italy link, they stopped reporting Italy-region numbers at the old link
Italy looks bad. ECDC/EU or better:China should help them

Code: [Select]
Feb24-18, 222,  6,  1   , 172, 33, 18,  6
Feb25-12, 283,  7,  1   , 212, 38, 23, 18     12
Feb26-12, 374, 12,  1   , 258, 71, 30, 28     10
Feb26-18, 400, 12,  3   , 258, 71, 47, 39     11
Feb27-12, 528, 14, 42   , 305, 98, 97, 84     45
Feb28-18, 888, 21, 46   , 531,151,145,128     44
Mar01-18,1577, 34, 83   , 984,263,285,162     34
Mar02-18,1835, 52,149   ,1254,273,335,174     12
Mar03-18,2263, 79,160   ,1520,307,420,255     81
Mar04-18,2706,107,276   ,1820,360,544,365    110
Mar05-18,3296,148,414   ,2251,407,698,502    137

date,accumulated cases,deaths,severe,Lombardy,Veneto,Reggio,other, other-daily

other than China, Italy does not report how many people are being
isolated,concentrated,suspected, how many contacts are being traced,
how many in medical observation
--------------------------------------
SouthKorea,6088,42,27,25,88
Italy,3858,148,351,-,414
Iran,3513,108,-,-,552
DiamondPrincess,696,6,34,-,40
France,423,7,23,-,12
Germany,400,0,-,2,17
Japan,350,6,29,-,10
Spain,248,3,7,-,2
UnitedStates,207,12,2,6,9
...
world-China,17339,344,484,47,1403

at what point will they seriously try to contain it ?
as China did. Or even discuss it and try it in some area.
I mean, you can't just let it run with
maybe 5-10% CFR when there are no hospital-places left.
They should try it now, what happens when you stop hospitalization,
ahh - it's unethical . But letting some % of the population die by
insufficient measuresn is totally ethical. the amount of ethics is proportional to
the number of people killed/damaged, IMO, not so much the way how it is being done.
---------------------------------------
world-China, daily new cases :
263,310,378,278,440,719,894,1388,1223,1895,1725,20 42,2036,2366
redoubles every 4 days ? but quite stable the last 5 days
------------------------------------------
Korea, daily new cases , Feb25-Mar07

Code: [Select]
Dae,(442),057,178,340,297,741,514,512,520,405,321,366,391,294
Gye,(186),039,043,053,073,075,045,110,061,089,087,117,065,032
All.(763),130,253,449,427,909,595,686,600,516,438,518,483,367
oth,(135),034,032,056,057,093,036,064,019,022,029,035,027,041

---------------------------------------------------------------
Hubei-Wuhan : 431,272,200,123,116,77,54
Wuhan : 1322,1008,603,489,391,439,400
19758 still in hospital (max was 44000 on Feb19)
an additional 21000 are still under medical observation (max was 77000 on Feb14)
------------------------------------------------------
US-cases : https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en
-------------------------------------------------------
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.03.20028423v1.full.pdf
average incubation = 5days ; 95% under 12days
2ary attack rate = 9.6% ; 14.9% in household
attack rate in children same as adults
patients taking many weeks to die or recover.
9% have symptoms-onset >14days
----------------------------------------
The neuroinvasive potential of SARS‐CoV2 may be at least partially responsible
for the respiratory failure of COVID‐19 patients
--------------------------------------------
2020/03/06/08:12,dax=11737,dow=25895 ; 11670(-2.3%),25854(-1.0%)
09:30,11634,25779 ; 10:00, 11534,2553310:40,11470,25395
es gibt kein halten teotwawki
Iran reports 1234 new cases, 16 deaths

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2020, 07:35:28 am »
2020/03/07
https://twitter.com/lookner
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
https://twitter.com/DataCoronavirus

SouthKorea,6593,42,27,25,108
Iran,4747,124,-,-,913
Italy,4636,197,462,-,523
DiamondPrincess,696,6,34,-,40
Germany,639,0,-,2,17
France,613,9,23,-,12
world,101622,3484,6087,49,57,328
China,80651,3070,5489,-,55404
world-China,20971,414,598

dow=25855,dax=11549

Italy , daily new cases Feb25-Mar07

Code: [Select]
Lom,(172),040,046,000,047,226,453,270,266,300,431,361,808,768
Ven,(033),005,033,000,027,063,112,010,034,053,047,081,055,127
Reg,(018),005,007,017,050,048,140,050,085,124,154,172,140,170
Oth,(006),012,010,011,045,044,034,012,081,110,137,164,244,426

----big increase in Lombardia today (Mar07)

----------------------------------------------
it seems to slow down in most regions. The increase doesn't look exponential
as you would expect at the start of epidemics.
I have the feeling that this is mainly due to people's awareness, they are more
careful when the situation gets worse and it's all over the media.
China,Singapore,Japan,South Korea,[Italy]
------------------------------------------------
world-China ,
263,310,378,278,440,719,894,1388,1223,1895,1725,20 42,2036,2366,3632
172,331,337,377,342,579,937,1094,1387,1775,1640,25 47,2163,2616,3770

the recent increase here is largely due to increased testing in Iran and multiple
new countries
---------------------------------------------------------
Hubei-Wuhan , 273,200,123,116,77,54,46
Wuhan,1108,603,489,391,431,400,376
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hmmmm, the CDC is banning all nonessential travel . . .
is it true ? Seems to be an "advice" , not a "ban"
-----------------------------------------------
The World Health Organization warned Thursday that a "long list" of countries were
not showing "the level of political commitment" needed to "match the level of the
threat we all face".
"This is not a drill," WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters.
"This epidemic is a threat for every country, rich and poor."
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---5-march-2020
# why to give the case numbers in the talk ? they are on the webpages
# otoh, he should talk about the costs, give numbers and how the experts calculate
# that it's worth it. What did it cost China, what will it likely cost USA, what political and
# constitutional changes are required , and how do the likely outcomes compare
# where is the WHO radio and TV -station that reports 24/7 about COVID ?
# These daily Tedros transcripts don't do it. WHO isn't taking this seriously
----------------------------------------------
which country gives the number of daily new cases by region in a daily updated table
so we can easily see the trend ? Also the # of tests or suspected.
Don't just give cumulative numbers, the reporters won't grasp it ("increasing").
The websites (wiki,jodi,BNO,...) are much better than the health-agencies, including WHO.
-----------------------------------------------------
WHO should publish a list, where they rate each country's response !!!

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Re: updates
« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2020, 07:40:13 am »
2020/03/08
https://twitter.com/lookner
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
https://twitter.com/DataCoronavirus

China,80695,3097,5264,-,57065
SouthKorea,7134,50,-,36,118
Iran,5823,145,-,-,1669
Italy,5883,233,462,-,589
Germany,800,0,-,2,17
DiamondPrincess,696,7,33,-,40
France,949,16,21,-,12

Lombardia with 808 cases, too bad.

Hubei-Wuhan , 200,123,116,77,54,46,37
Wuhan , 603,489,391,439,400,376,341

Italy,Korea,Germany are being updated in the posts above

world-China , 21,89,85,114,101,121,81,
172,331,337,377,342,579,937,
1094,1387,1776,1640,2548,2162,2607,
3810,3971

South Korea's official webpage is not yet updated, but here is a press-release:
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200308000400320

if that were the total for yesterday, (often they have 2 reports per day)
then that looks good. It were starting slowly to decrease and the decrease would
have started 1-2 weeks ago if we consider case-counts by disease-onset rather
than by reported confirmation - as seen in China.

daily new cases in South Korea : 130,253,449,427,909.595,686,600,516,438,518,483 ,367?
this is a bit deranged by the massive testing of the sect-members

--------------------------------------------------------------------
https://www.twoeggz.com/info/364630.html
Although the number of new confirmed cases in a single day has been slowly decreasing,
the current epidemic situation in South Korea is still very serious.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
The White House overruled health officials who wanted to recommend that elderly
and physically fragile Americans avoid flying on commercial airlines
----------------------------------------------------
https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/07-03-2020-who-statement-on-cases-of-covid-19-surpassing-100-000
> China and other countries

what other countries ? South Korea ? WHO should name them

> are demonstrating that spread of the virus can be slowed and impact reduced through
> the use of universally applicable actions, such as working across society to identify
> people who are sick, bringing them to care, following up on contacts, preparing hospitals
> and clinics to manage a surge in patients, and training health workers.

that's all ? What about traffic, closures, extended holidays, fever screening,..
And I do not see how preparing hospitals, training health workers reduces the spread.
Well, it may motivate people to report their illness, but it may also motivate them
to be less careful. What about the old people, high severety risk, shouldn't they isolate
at home to reduce hospital burdon
WHO messages are too general, not specific enough, IMO
----------------------------------
test costs $100 (in "SK") , 7% positivity rate ,
------------------------------------
Queensland's disaster management authorities have gone into "war mode" [14 cases]
---------------------------------------
WHO should get someone else for the pressers. Tedros is too naive, emotional,
lacks expertise, isn't been taken serious.
The message is "war" against the virus (so declared by China and South Korea
with good results) and Tedros isn't the type of field-marshal,
so to speak. More the pope-like type.
WHO uses lengthy wording, pharmacy-like pictures, happy-faces-advertisements.
It was different with H5N1, with Chan.
--------------------------------------------------
South Korea : http://magictour.free.fr/kor0308.GIF
not really going down, they reduced testing ; but stable

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Re: updates
« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2020, 07:44:35 am »
2020/03/09
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://virusncov.com/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

Italy,7375,366,462,-,622
SouthKorea,7313,50,-,36,130
Iran,6566,194,-,-,2134
France,1209,19,21,-,12
Germany,1040,0,-,2,18

world-China,29052,705,576,61,3581 ; deaths/cases=2.4%

Hubei-Wuhan,77,54,46,37
Wuhan,439,400,376,341 , inHospital=15826 , observed=13211

Apr15=SouthKorea general election

world-China , daily new cases : weekly factor:3.7,4.2,2.9 ; redoubles every 4 days
21,89,85,114,101,121,81,
172,331,337,377,342,579,937,
1094,1387,1776,1640,2548,2162,2622,
3794,3983,(3713 so far),

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757
effect of travel restriction

25% of infections during the presymptomatic phase

twoeggz.com usually has the Korean numbers some hours earlier
South Korea : "The outbreak has slowed down", Kim Kwang-li,
[cases] declining and bed supply is increasing

I want exactly the same measures that Korea has taken here.
Excluding that Shincheonji stuff, luckily we have no Shincheonji

--------------------------
no WHO press update since Mar05
stupid WHO-tweets, pics without info, no studies, no experts, no data
ged rid of Tedros _now_. Speed is everything
the World Health Organisation, WHO, debunked the rumour of spices preventing
coronavirus infection,
--------------------------
China’s Offers Experience in Europe’s Fight Against COVID-19
----------------------------
updated http://magictour.free.fr/kor0308.GIF

07:30UTC, dax=10460(-9.4% !) , dow=24563(-5.0%), gold=1683,oil=33.9(-25.6% !)
oil=33.5 now ; Brent=$33.9,WTI=$30.0 (-28%)
https://www.ariva.de/chart/images/chart.png?z=a101622823~b172~o285~wfree~Uyear~W0~z620

Opec und die mit ihm kooperierenden Staaten haben es nicht geschafft,
sich auf neue Kürzungen der Rohölförderung
OPEC failed to find an agreement about oil-production
-------------
08:09,10609,25566,euro=114.25,gold=1682,oil=34.75( Brent)
MIB-Italy=19984(-3.9%)
https://www.borsaitaliana.it/borsa/indici/indici-in-continua/dettaglio.html?indexCode=FTSEMIB
08:30-UTC,MIB=19651,-5.5%,DAX=10735(-7.3%),DOW=24568(-5.0% against Friday-close)
Brent-oil=35.8(-21%)

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Re: updates
« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2020, 07:49:02 am »
2020/03/10
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://virusncov.com/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

Italy : only Lombardia is bad today (I mean on Mar09,18:00 MET), the other regions look OK
especially Veneto

Code: [Select]
Lom,(172),040,046,000,047,226,453,270,266,300,431,361,808,768,1280
Ven,(033),005,033,000,027,063,112,010,034,053,047,081,055,127,0074
Reg,(018),005,007,017,050,048,140,050,085,124,154,172,140,170,0206
Oth,(006),012,010,011,045,044,034,012,081,110,137,164,244,426,0237

China,254,262,282,245,198,128,100,55 ; Hubei-Wuhan,46,37,24,17 , Wuhan,376,341,317,259 , hosp=14957,obs=10832

South Korea looks good, no official English update yet, I'll post it in some hours

wikipedia gives a table of South Korean regions with incidence rate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea
but no time series, afaics, so you must save it every day and compare to see the trend
well, maybe this :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak_data/South_Korea_medical_cases
they give daily links to Korean webpages

China80754,3136,4794,-,59897
SouthKorea,7513,54,-,36,247
Italy,9172,463,733,-,724
Iran,7161,237,-,-,2394
France,1412,30,66,-,12
Germany,1224,2,-,2,18
Spain,1231,30,11,-,32
UnitedStates,702,27,2,6,9

2020/03/10/06:30-UTC,
DAX(Germany=10344(-2.7%, max was 13789 on Feb18 -25%)
DOW(USA)=24713 (+3.7% , max was 29551 on Feb12 -16%),
MIB(Italy)=18476(close Mar09,-11%; max was 25477 on Feb19 -27%)
China A50=13700 (max was 14600 on Jan13 -6%)

world-China : 85,114,101,121,81,172,333,
337,378,344,581,937,1092,1390,
1778,1646,2549,2172,2622,3794,3996,
3728,4262

07:30,dax=10873 (+5.1% in the last hour !) ,dow=24542,Brent-Oil=36.00

Xi is declaring China's victory over the coronavirus.
Xi Jinping arrives in Wuhan:

Tedros,WHO : "But, it would be the first pandemic in history that could
be controlled."

Germany can do 12000 test per day
~10600*10/6 were tested last week [Feb24-Mar01 ? ], 130 were positive

Czechia closes schools (not Kindergartens), forbids mass-events
Italy : 1e10euros for measures
Madrid closes schools
Merkel wants to slow it down (not to stop it ?) , the concern is next winter
also Spahn : slow it down for better health-care
[# can it be slowed down ? how much ? what region did it ? My feeling is, that when you
can slow it down then you can also invert it, get it to zero as in _all_ of China]
https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/liveticker-aktuelle-informationen-zum-coronavirus-suedtirol,RoxMtok

no publishing of #of tests or #of negatives, as in Italy only#of positives

Korea update : http://magictour.free.fr/kor0308.GIF
many new tests (suspected increasing) , but mostly negative ones

-----------------------------------
ahh, we should really compare the positive-rates instead of the total numbers of confirmed
cases, when we compare countries.
For one country this may be proportional, so the trend is the same.
But e.g. South Korea - with USA-standards they never had an outbreak,

So stupid, that WHO only requires positive-counts not negative ones,
which are as easy to collect and report as positive ones.

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Re: updates
« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2020, 07:53:57 am »
2020/03/11
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://virusncov.com/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true


2020/03/10/1715-UTC,dax=10613,dow=24224,euro=1.131,Brent-Oil=37.1
10889,25001,

more in 6 hours

--------------------------
Italy
March 10, 2020 - The government's FAQ on the Iorestoacasa decree
The answers to the most frequently asked questions about
travel, transport, public businesses, school and tourism
-------------------
845 million allocated in 2020 for the recruitment of health personnel and the
purchase of ICU equipment
----------------------
1.4% of cases are < 19 , 22% are 19-50
------------------------

positive-rates : Lom=24.0%,Emi=25.0%,Ven=16.3%,I-3=9.2%
Dortmund=3.8% , Sachsen-Anhalt=0%

--------------------------------------------
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---9-march-2020
All countries must take a comprehensive blended strategy for controlling their
epidemics and pushing this deadly virus back.
closing schools, cancelling mass gatherings
Case finding and contact tracing
all-of-society, all-of-government approach.
There are many examples of countries demonstrating that these measures work.
China, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the United States of America and many
others have activated emergency measures.
Singapore is a good example of an all-of-government approach
The Republic of Korea has increased efforts to identify all cases and contacts
Nigeria, Senegal and Ethiopia have strengthened surveillance and diagnostic capacity
to find cases quickly.
only a handful of countries have signs of sustained community transmission.
Italy is taking aggressive measures
---------------------------------------------------
119240,4291,66335,48614
China,80778,3158,4492,-,61475
Italy,10149,631,877,-,1004
SouthKorea,7755,60,-,36,288
Iran,8042,291,-,-,2731
France,1784,33,86,-,12
Spain,1695,36,101,-,135
Germany,1565,2,-,2,18
UnitedStates,978,30,2,6,9
--------------------------------
world,85,114,101,121,81,172,332,
337,378,344,581,937,1093,1390,
1777,1642,2549,2178,2622,3792,3999,
3740,4332,4478

Hubei-Wuhan,37,24,17,6 ; Wuhan,341,317,259,211 ; hosp=13712 ; China,128,100,55,55

Code: [Select]
Dae,(442),057,178,340,297,741,514,512,520,405,321,366,391,294,190,092,131
Gye,(186),039,043,053,073,075,045,110,061,089,087,117,065,032,026,010,018
All,(763),130,253,449,427,909,595,686,600,516,438,518,483,367,248,131,242
oth,(135),034,032,056,057,093,036,064,019,022,029,035,027,041,032,029,093

highest increase outside Daegu,Gyeongbuk
52 of these in Seoul, a new cluster was reported
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/03/113_285900.html

contact tracing is no longer feasable, it requires too many resources
[China had 1200 teams with >5 people each and smartphone-tracing,AI,..]
travel restrictions are probably needed, but they are unpopular
https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/mar/10/how-a-south-korean-city-is-changing-tactics-to/

-------------------------------------
reduced shopping in some Chinese cities, keyword : "closed-off management" 封闭管理
--------------------------------------------
. The @EU_Commission will bring forward a Corona Response Investment Fund of € 25bn
to help our healthcare systems, SMEs and labour market
======================================
08:00-UTC,dax=10584,dow=24400,oil=36.9
09:43-UTC,dax=10640,dow=24432

Zuerich,Mar03,9/400=2.3% positive
Zuerich,Mar09,40/855=4.7% positive , redoubled in 6days
-------------------------------------------------
https://en.wikiredia.com/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_the_Czech_Republic
Czech,<Mar10=38/928=4.1% ; Mar09=24/265=9.4%
------------------------------------------------------
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Belgium
Belgium, Mar09,39/443=8.8% ; Mar06=59/771=7.7%
------------------------------------------
Poland, <Mar06=1/676=0.1% , Mar06=4/179=2.2% , Mar08=6/299=2.0%,
Mar09=5/230=2.2%,Mar10=22/246=8.9%
---------------------------------
Slowakia , ~4/200=2.0%
----------------------------------
in Europe Italy and UK habe series of positives and tested at wiki
countries with smaller sporadic values are : Belgium,Poland,Czech,Slovakia,
values from some cities Dortmund,Zuerich,
----------------------------
USA : https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html
apparently ~4 days delay

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2020, 08:04:34 am »
2020/03/12
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://virusncov.com/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a20501000000&bid=0015&list_no=366524&act=view
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

----------------------------------------------
16:34-UTC , WHO calls it a pandemic
“We’re deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity
and by the alarming levels of inaction,”
several countries have demonstrated the ability to suppress and control the outbreak,
Tedros scolded other world leaders for failing to act quickly enough or drastically
enough to contain the spread.
All countries can still change the course of this pandemic,”
We are grateful for the measures in Iran, Italy, Korea.
# they seem to disagree, but there is no discussion about the reasons
# I wonder who is "we", when Tedros says "we" and whether they consulted
# with the world's politicians and experts
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020
-------
# well, even if they stop it, it may re-enter from outside (didn't happen in China so far),
# unless other countries do the same
# so you can't relax the measures so much once it was stopped

-----------------------------------------------
German chancellor expects 60%-70% will be infected
German Health minister : "can't be stopped" [Tedros: not whether they _can_
do the same (as China) – it’s whether they _will_. ]
Czech disagrees (?) calls it fearmongering , Czechia has
more drastic measures

dax=10363,dow=23780

Italy,12462,827,1028,-,1045
Iran,9000,354,-,-,2959
SouthKorea,7755,60,-,36,288
France,2281,48,105,-,12
Spain,2277,55,126,-,183
Germany,1966,3,-,2,25
UnitedStates,1188,36,2,6,9

Hubei-Wuhan,24,17,6,6 Wuhan,317,259,211,162

Italian medical chief, Roberto Stella, 67, dies from #coronavirus due to respiratory failure

Code: [Select]
Lom,(172),040,046,000,047,226,453,270,266,300,431,361,808,768,1280,322,1489
Ven,(033),005,033,000,027,063,112,010,034,053,047,081,055,127,0074,112,167
ER-,(018),005,007,017,050,048,140,050,085,124,154,172,140,170,0206,147,206
Oth,(006),012,010,011,045,044,034,012,081,110,137,164,244,426,0237,396,451

positive rates :
Lombardia=36%(24%),Italy=18.7%(14.1%),ER=18.0%(25. 0%),Veneto=19.3%(9,2%)
UK=5.9%,USA=5%(Mar05)

Brian Schatz : I’ve never seen Dow futures plummet like that when a President speaks.
07:15-UTC,dax=9828(-5.9%),dow=22660(-3.8%)
dow=21611, 18:00-UTC

world-China: 121,81,172,332,337,378,344,
581,937,1093,1390,1776,1640,2546,
2175,2622,3792,4000,3742,4334,4578,
7162 - redoubles every 3.57 days

compares other countries with Italy, how many days behind :
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES1Te1PWsAM8sHi?format=jpg&name=large
{they should take the positive-rates instead or at least divide by the population}

16:23-CET, dax=9200,dow=21500,oil=32.9
Italy,12462,827,1028,-,1045
Iran,10075,429,-,-,2959
SouthKorea,7869,66,-,36,333
France,2281,48,105,-,12
Spain,2277,55,126,-,183
Germany,1966,3,-,2,25
UnitedStates,1336,36,2,6,9

Italy=15113 , +2651
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ES7HcmTXgAIGyHM?format=jpg&name=medium

so many prominent cases meanwhile ... probably >0.1% of the population infected
that would be 300000 in USA, peek in ~35 days if it continues like that
----------------------------------
positive-ratio,Lom=.370,ER=.216,Ven=.177,Ita=.206 (.140,.186.,206),I-3=3057/25439=.120
deathrate=6.7% , 8.5% in Lombardia , and that is with still somehow working healthcare
Now, just assume it stays so low and 60%-70% will be infected as Merkel expects,
that gives 5.5% of the population dying or 434M worldwide, 17M in USA .
---------------------------------------
Novavax=9.59,Moderna=22.51,Inovio=9.83,dax=9281(ma x=13666),dow=21660,vix=59,euro=1.12,
gold=1577,oil=33.01,mib=15130,china-A50=12804(max=14453)
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099%2820%2930144-4

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2020, 08:08:56 am »
2020/03/13
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://virusncov.com/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a20501000000&bid=0015&list_no=366524&act=view
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

Italy,15113,1016,1153,-,1258
Iran,10075,429,-,-,2959
SouthKorea,7869,66,-,36,333
Spain,3059,86,190,-,189
France,2876,61,129,-,12
Germany,2512,5,-,2,25
UnitedStates,1336,36,2,6,9
deathrates,6.7%,4.3%,0.8%,2.8%,2.1%,0.2%,2.7%

South Korea chart updated : http://magictour.free.fr/kor0313.GIF
suspected cases are not going down, they test as much as they can.
But the positive-rate is low and decreasing
--------------------------
China’s first confirmed Covid-19 case traced back to November 17
-----------------------------------
Iranian President Rohani has tested positive
-------------------------------------
China A50=12712,dow=20470,dax=8850

Hubei-Wuhan,46,37,24,17,6,6,5 Wuhan,376,341,317,259,211,162,50 (suspects+confirmed)
11800 in hospital, 6810 in medical observation

08:00-UTC,dax=9507,dow=22050,oil=34.8
Seoul temporarily bans stock short-selling for 6 months amid virus-triggered market rout
09:30-UTC-dow=21834

WHO, Tedros :
https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-mission-briefing-on-covid-19---12-march-2020

Let me be clear: describing this as a pandemic does not mean that countries should give up.
The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.
On the contrary, we have to double down.
This is a controllable pandemic
[I'd like him to comment on the current status of measures, is he content with what
was done yesterday ?]
-------------------------------------------
- Czech Republic closing borders on Monday morning
- Madrid decrees the closure of bars, clubs and restaurants
- France bans gatherings with more than 100 people
# this all looks insufficient. Compare with what China, South Korea did. Contact tracing,
# isolation of cases, medical observation

tony

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Re: updates
« Reply #14 on: March 19, 2020, 08:17:36 am »
2020/03/14
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://virusncov.com/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030
http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a20501000000&bid=0015&list_no=366524&act=view
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto/archivioComunicatiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true

Italy,17660,1266,1328,-,1439
Iran,11364,514,-,-,3529
SouthKorea,7979,67,-,36,510
SouthKorea,8086,72,-,36,714
Spain,4209,120,190,-,189
Germany,3116,6,-,2,46
France,2876,61,129,-,12
UnitedStates,1832,41,2,6,9

South Korea, +107 cases (110 yesterday) , not decreasing, but stable at low level
----------------------------
WHO: 8 pillars of WHO’s Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan.
you must take a comprehensive [umfassend] approach.
The experience of China, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and others clearly
demonstrates that aggressive testing and contact tracing, combined with
social distancing measures and community mobilization, can prevent infections
and save lives. Japan is also demonstrating
------------------------------
Hubei-Wuhan,24,17,6,6,5,4 Wuhan,341,317,249,211,162,50,34 China,128,100,55,55,48,41,28
[new daily cases, confirmed+suspected] last 7 days
in hospital:10485, medical observation : 5885
-----------------------------------------
Brazil's ambassador to the U.S., Nestor Forster, has tested positive
------------------------------------------
dow=23185
world-China,
121,81,172,332,337,377,344,
579,937,1093,1390,1776,1638,2546,
2175,2622,3794,3996,3733,4330,4575,
7195,8233 redoubles every 3.6 days
---------------------------------------------------
Spain preparing for nationwide lockdown to stop the spread of coronavirus,
according to draft decree - El Pais
start on Monday morning, People would only be allowed to go out to buy basic
needs or to go to work.
-----------------------------------------------------
Spain,cases : 4200-->5700
-----------------------------------------
first human trials of coronavirus vaccine could start in days - huge progress at Moderna