Author Topic: updates  (Read 2430 times)

tony

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Re: updates
« on: March 19, 2020, 06:36:48 am »
2020/03/01
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
https://www.statnews.com/tag/coronavirus/

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Hubei ex Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected Feb14-Feb29:
4475,4015,3669,3050,2208,1647,1886
1326,1247,1075,889,720,648,543
431,272
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Wuhan , daily new conformed+suspected+suspected Feb14-Feb29:
4695,4107,3999,3739,3543,3038,4118
4655,3377,2543,2275,2059,2183,2096
1322,1008
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South Korea, cases are going down today ? fewer than yesterday at 09:00
066,073,188,207,204,125,250,
446,424,905,591
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world ex China : 7155 cases, 108 deaths, 204 serious/critical
Italy : 1128,29,105
South Korea : 3526,17,10
Iran : 593,43,-
France : 100,2,8
Europe : 1485,31,129 , assuming that 1/3 of severe cases
will die the current CFR-estimate for Europe is 5.0 , but there could be a delay
from mild to severe to death , although we didn't see much of this in China.

it could be, that most countries are testing symptomatic, severe cases first.
The best CFR that we currently have is South Korea with ~0.6% and they
are testing lots of sect-members routinely.
But this is with a still good working health care and it's only going on since ~2 weeks.
But symptoms typically get worse in ~20% of cases only after 2 weeks
(see the report from that Wuhan doctor who treated the very first cases)

------------------------
I can't get WHO-speeches, last from Feb.28 but "This page cannot be found" errors
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/news
the audio works, 50min
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/media-resources/press-briefings#
transcript ?
03:00-04:20 Tedros saw no community transmissions on Feb.28 and concluded that it could
still be contained. He no longer recommends China-like-lockdowns, AFAICS.
The key were contact-tracing, isolate patients.
> although : 05:00 And to take an all government, all society approach
and he mentions the China-mission-report (which recommends lockdowns) but without
comment
>12:50 "interrupt transmission" still no mention of lockdown, traffic reduction
I stop now at 14:00

-----------ahh, now I find the transcript : https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---28-february-2020
Tedros opening remarks only. zero hits on "lock" zero hits on "traffic" zero hits on "cancel"

---------------------------------------
@kakape , 5h
It may feel like every new death, every new country with a case changes picture.
But in broad terms things happening exactly as experts have expected them to.
# but they didn't expect the containment in China
That most people don’t feel that way is a sign of how terrible many officials have
been at communicating what to expect.
--------------------
kakape Feb 28
Just got off the phone with Steven and I think he makes an important point here.
IF countries are willing to take some extreme measures of social distancing to curb
#covid19 spread, it will be assuming China manages resurgence well. If it turns out
no, that will change picture...
[and he started the long thread about it, see the other thread , expecting this
would cause a major discussion the next days :
> It may well dominate the #covid19 debate in the coming days. ]
------------------------------
now it seems he no longer talks about these measures, like everyone else, sigh
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podcast with Marc Lipsitch , I can't get it with firefox
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/deep-background-with-noah-feldman/id1460055316#episodeGuid=1ccb9800-387e-11ea-a8b6-8f3e0bd1764d
-------------------------------------------------------
Total in South Korea now 3736 cases, 20 deaths. (CFR 0.5)
Iran=978cases,54deaths (CFR down to 5.5%)
----------------------------------------------
a scientist argues that genomic evidence suggests the coronavirus has been
spreading in Washington State for 6 weeks
This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly
from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19,
few hundred current infections.
---------------------------------------------------
Today/video: Neal Ferguson calculates 1000 infections per death correlation.
# surprise ! Ferguson down to CFR=0.1 ??
> The point is the mortality is 1%, but due to a lag in deaths there are 1000
> cases "behind" a death.
# for UK ? why should it be so much lower in UK than elsewhere
------------------------I can't find the 50s Ferguson video------------
https://nzenews.com/2020/02/29/coronavirus-what-are-the-chances-of-dying/
Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result
in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.
death rate was ten times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.
under 30s – there were eight deaths in 4,500 cases.
Ferguson, suspects China will have handiest showed 10% of its overall coronavirus infections to start with.
# what does that mean ("handiest") ? >90% underreporting ?
---------------------------------
in Daegu, 2569 cases. 898 in hospital, 1662 waiting at home for a hospital bed.
------------------------------------
Iran,official,
The slope of the # Corona chart will continue to rise in the coming days, staying home,
restricting traffic, reducing travel, avoiding unnecessary travel, canceling any
nationwide gatherings along with personal hygiene tips, the only means of control.
#Covid_0 will be in the coming weeks
--------
The Islamic Council closes until further notice.
--------------------------------------------
Iran calls on people to stay at home as death toll rises to 54
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