Author Topic: short summaries  (Read 3173 times)

gsgs

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short summaries
« on: March 17, 2020, 02:56:15 am »
https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1239531565023191040
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
 > origin, SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033944v2
 > mutated towards milder,more transmissable ?
 > at positions 8824 and 28247. ZJ01 were both T at these two sites, becoming the only TT type
 > currently identified in the world.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00741-x
 > what measures in China were the most successful
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973#.XnGGKWVPq0Q
 > on surfaces

more:  https://twitter.com/medrxivpreprint
more:  https://wuhanpneumonia.com/wuhan-coronavirus-genomics/
reviews : https://twitter.com/SinaiImmunol/status/1241526700741144576


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1
 > about serology
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.987222v1.full.pdf
 > 382-nt deletion in Singapore
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221
 > Despite being less infectious than symptomatic/identified cases, undocumented cases
 > contribute more to overall transmission than symptomatic cases due to their hidden nature.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7
 > risk of infection increased with age
 > symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms)
 > of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9Ė2.1%),
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767&fbclid=IwAR3EhZ1M2YPg454BUHQ0NHqYdOTbFCmPDFF4mlSILyyyxHQwiVQERkCvxjY
 > One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative
 > humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively.

---------------------------------
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20040055v1.full.pdf
Findings The application of all four social distancing interventions: school closure, workplace
non-attendance, increased case isolation, and community contact reduction is highly effective in
flattening the epidemic curve, reducing the maximum daily case numbers, and lengthening
outbreak duration. These were also found to be effective even after 10 weeks delay from index
case arrivals. The most effective single intervention was found to be increasing case isolation, to
100% of children and 90% of adults.

-----------------------------------------
weather :  https://news.yale.edu/2020/03/30/hopes-pandemic-respite-spring-may-depend-upon-what-happens-indoors
cold dry air helps SARS2
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 11:30:51 pm by gsgs »

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tony

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2020, 06:21:33 am »
1. Global fatality rate is 4.34%
2. Italy's fatality rate at 9.3%, Iran 7.8%, Spain at 6.2%, UK at 4.9%, Netherlands at 4.3%, France t 4.2%.
3. 15 of 25 countries with more than 1,000 cases is in Europe (Turkey excluded)
4. U.S. has now the third highest case count globally but fatality rate is well below global average at 1.3%, similar to South Korea at 1.2%.
5. Germany has 5th most coronavirus cases but mortality at 0.4% so far.

tony

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #2 on: March 24, 2020, 05:30:59 am »
"More than 300,000 cases have now been reported @WHO from almost every country on Earth. The pandemic is accelerating."

  • It took 67 days from the 1st reported case to reach 100K cases.
  • 11 days for the 2nd 100K.
  • 4 days for the third 100K.

tony

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2020, 04:57:21 am »
New data ... found lower rates in kids. But when they relied on contact tracing ó testing people who come in contact with a confirmed case ó children seemed to be getting infected at the same rate as adults.

tony

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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2020, 12:53:21 pm »
Power of social distancing. Self isolation and self quarantine is the best way to fight the pandemic. Rest keep washing your hands and sanitising yourself and people around you.

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2020, 12:38:30 pm »
The 2009 swine flu infected 1.4 Billion people around the world, and killed 575,000 people. There was no media panic, and societies did not shut down.  Swine Flu was an inefficient virus and was no where near as contagious as COVID-19. Mortality rate to infections in Swine flu was also much higher. But it just didnít have the potential to become the type of pandemic that COVID-19 does.

------edit gsgs------------
2009 swine flu was more contagious (except in summer) but less lethal than COVID-19
in USA 20% were infected in 2009 and 12000 died from it in 2009
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
worldwide probably only ~200000 deaths, 575000 is the upper-end-estimate
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu_pandemic
----------------------------------

« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 06:39:07 am by gsgs »

tony

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2020, 04:45:56 am »
Coronavirus: Doctors At Hospitals Say COVID-19 Death Numbers Arenít Consistent.

No one will ever know the actual count of the many deaths caused by the coronavirus.

Many that die with symptoms have not been tested before or after their death.

tony

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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2020, 12:57:43 pm »
Wearing a mask is useful to keep infected people from giving it to others. Those infected with SARS-CoV-2 can be asymptomatic and give virus to others
Many countries are reporting local community transmissions and can no longer trace who gave it to whom. There are also instances of some people showing symptoms but masking/hiding them via various means because. Given these circumstances, at some point it may be best to act as if everyone is a possible carrier. If so, it makes sense to get everyone to wear masks.

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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2020, 04:11:02 am »
From WHO's most recent press briefing: A total lockdown cannot stop the spread of COVID 19. It is meant to be used to buy time while we get sufficient infrastructure ready and develop more lasting solutions. If we do nothing after 2 weeks/1 month, the curve will steepen.

tony

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #9 on: April 01, 2020, 04:51:07 am »
COVID-19 spreads through 'droplets' via the air and infects the person through the nose, eyes, mouth, and well, hands which touch your face. So to avoid getting it, one needs to protect these sources of entry is critical.

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« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2020, 03:12:48 am »
These are the most common underlying conditions they found in patients whoíve died from COVID19 in South Korea

High blood pressure 66%
Diabetes 44%
Respiratory problems 30%
Alzheimers  33%
Heart related issues  23.6%

tony

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2020, 10:54:50 am »
For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we donít know the mechanism(s) responsible.

--------------added gsgs-----------
NOAA has daily weather data, I'm trying to do some statistics later
here a new study :
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050526
« Last Edit: April 05, 2020, 07:46:27 am by gsgs »

tony

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« Reply #12 on: April 06, 2020, 02:17:48 am »
The virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is stable for several hours to days in aerosols and on surfaces, according to a new study from National Institutes of Health, CDC, UCLA and Princeton University scientists in The New England Journal of Medicine.

tony

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2020, 03:21:36 am »
Super interesting breakdown of COVID-19 stats here in an easy to follow form.

- 90% no symptoms/recovery without hospitalization
- 8.5% hospitalized but survive
- 1.5% get into ICU
- o/w 1% die
- o/w 0.5% survive


tony

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Re: short summaries
« Reply #14 on: April 08, 2020, 02:59:20 am »
Based on officially reported data, shows the following mortality rates by region.

Global: 5.87%
Europe: 9.59%
Africa: 4.61%
Middle East: 4.08%
Latin America: 3.97%
Asia: 3.52%
North America: 3.17%
Oceania: 0.65%