nCoV_info

New study puts case doubling rate at 2.9 days (half than previous estimates !)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020941v1

the early outbreak of 2019-nCoV could have been spreading much faster in Wuhan than previous estimates.

This is very concerning (but is consistent with R0=3 and the recently published very short incubation period of 3 days).

This means not only does the epidemic spread twice as fast as presumed, but it means that spread is exponentially twice as fast.

Example: increase in number of cases after 4 weeks:

previous estimate (case doubling 7 days) :   16 fold increase  (2^4)
New estimate (doubling every 3 days) :  1.000 fold increase (2^10)

This explosive growth perfectly explains why Wuhan got overwhelmed so quickly.

If we continue to understimate this virus in our countries outside China we are prone to the same playbook.