Author Topic: omicron vaccine effectiveness  (Read 284 times)

gsgs

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omicron vaccine effectiveness
« on: December 31, 2021, 10:22:03 pm »
scroll down for the most actual numbers

actual numbers on hospitalisations and positive-rates here:
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/genetics/b-1-1-529-(nu-)/msg320/#msg320

: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/united-states-rates-of-covid-19-deaths-by-vaccination-status


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044481/Technical-Briefing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf

UK,symp,  http://magictour.free.fr/tb34a.GIF
UK,hosp:
VE(UK,h,1d, 7w,O)=52
VE(UK,h,2d,11w,O)=72
VE(UK,h,2d,30w,O)=52
VE(UK,h,3d, 4w,O)=88



Ontario , VE(case),1129-1231
76,76,74,74,72,73,72
71,70,69,67,67,64,63
59,53,47,40,32,25,16
+08,+01,-05,-12,-18,-25,-28
-31,-33,-29,-32,-38

Ontario , VE(hosp),1213-1231
84,84,83,82,82,81,81
79,78,77,75,73,70,66
63,60,56,54,47






---------------------------------------------------------
Robert Koch Institute report released today states that 95.58% of the #Omicron cases
in Germany are fully vaccinated (28% of those had a "booster"), 4.42% are unvaccinated.
--------------------------------------------------------
 the 2nd dose mRNA vaccine given to someone who also had past infection
did not further increase antibodies
---------------------------------------------------
> One of the studies shows omicron is 89% as severe in people with no vax, never infected
------------------------------------------------------


vaccine effectiveness

AZ,BNT,Mod
D,2,h,78,91
D,3,h,98,98
O,2,h,51,75
O,3,h,90,86
O,2,h,ar,54,77
O,3,h,ar,92,88


O,2,s,--,55,37

ar:adjusted for reinfections
s: symptomatic disease
h:hospitalisation
O:omicron
D:delta
w:weeks

https://twitter.com/freja_kirsebom/status/1474070653326270473

O,2AZ+BNT,s,3w,60
O,2AZ+BNT,s,10w,35
O,2AZ+Mod,s,10w,45
O,3BNT,s,1w,70
O,3BNT,s,10w,45
O,2BNT+Mod,9w,72
O,2Mod,3w,50
O,2Mod,22w,0

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

DNK,VE : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21267966v2.full.pdf

---------------------------------------------------------------------

VE(3*BNT,omicron,symp)=75%
-----------------------------------------------------------------
SinoVac doesn’t provide sufficient antibodies to neutralize omicron
------------------------------------------------------
VE(2xBNT,omicron,hosp)=70%
VE(2xBNT,omicron,inf)=33%

wanes
1. 2-4 wks after 2nd dose: 56%
2. 3-4 mnths after 2nd dose: 25%

VE(delta-->omicron,inf)=60%
----------------------------------------------------------------
VE(symp,2AZ,omicron,5m?,UK)=0
VE(symp,2BNT,omicron,5m?,UK)~30%
VE(symp,3BNT,omicron,1m,UK)=72%
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1040076/Technical_Briefing_31.pdf
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351833416122369
------------------------------------------------
current vaccine effectivity in Iceland
see  https://www.covid.is/data
VE(2shots,case) = -88% (Jan02)
VE(3shots,case) = 38% (Jan02)
VE(2shots,hosp) = 71% (Dec28)
VE(3shots,hosp) = 84% (Dec28)
------------------------------------------------


Iceland : http://magictour.free.fr/ice1228.GIF
VE(ICE,case,3d,5w,O)=48
VE(ICE,case,2d,20w,O)=-82%

Washington : http://magictour.free.fr/wa-1229.GIF
VE(WA,case,omicron)=60%

New York : http://magictour.free.fr/ny-1222.GIF
VE(NY,case,omicron)=75

Virginia : http://magictour.free.fr/va-1225.GIF 
VE(VA,case,omicron)=92%

UK,symp,  http://magictour.free.fr/tb34a.GIF

Ontario :  VE(case)= -31%  VE(hosp)=45% , VE(ICU)=84%    (was 73%,82%,90% 5  weeks ago)
http://magictour.free.fr/ont-0105.GIF

California : VE(case)=75% (-1% per day) , VE(hosp)=87% (-0.5% per day)  , VE(death)=95% (stable)
http://magictour.free.fr/ca-1226.GIF

Oregon, Dec30 : http://magictour.free.fr/or-1230.GIF
VE(case)=66%

Germany, Jan06 : http://magictour.free.fr/rki2w01.GIF
VE(case,2dose,18-59)= 53 , VE(hosp,18-59)=76  , VE(ICU)=89
VE(case,3dose,18-59) = 82 , VE(hosp,3dose,18-59)=92
(it's for the last 4 weeks , still mostly delta, the omicron wave is just starting,
mainly young people get it early in the wave, so I took 18-59 and not 60+)
----------------------------------------
USA-CA :
VE(Mod,case,O,2dose,14-90d)=30    quickly declining
VE(Mod,case,O,3dose,)=63
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v1
----------------------------------------

vaccine effectiveness in UK with 2-3 doses ,
4-week average
average of 4-5 highest from 7 agegroups
ONS-denumerators
reported in weeks 1,2 of 2022

VE(case) , av(5)=26.1% , 22.8%
VE(admis) , av(5)=+91.5%  ,  +89.1%
VE(death) , av(4)=+92.4% , +93.2%

-----------------------------------------------------------
VE-numbers in % for case/symp , hosp , ICU , death

ONT,0112 , VE(2+dose)=-25,40,77,--

ICE,0105 , VE(2dose) = 00,66,--,--
ICE,0105 , VE(3dose) = 32,68,--,--

Germany actual estimates from 4-week-period-numbers
DEU,0113 , VE(2dose) = 00,59,76,82
DEU,0113 , VE(3dose) = 40,83,86,89

----------------------------------------------------------------
Italy :
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_12-gennaio-2022.pdf

fig.A10,A11
VE much better in old people ? I assume it's because omicron infects young people first
 and the VE(old) will go down to the VE(young) in some weeks

Ontario, 01-25  : http://magictour.free.fr/ont-0125.GIF
VE(2+dose,case)=15%    , VE(2+dose,hosp)=50%   VE(2+dose,ICU)=80%
but these are lower numbers in the decreasing wave , VE was lower at the peak of the wave

DE : 2d:30,55,90,90  ;  3d : 65,84,90,90   (symp,hosp,ICU,death)
http://magictour.free.fr/rki2-w03.GIF

ITA : 2dl : 08,84 ; 2ds : 31,89 ; 3d : 46,94    (case,severe case) 2d >/< 120days ago

Iceland , VE(3dose,case) = 40% , VE(3dose,hosp) = 65%

California :VE(case)= 76% , VE(hosp) = 85% , VE(death) = 95%
http://magictour.free.fr/ca-0109.GIF

New York City : VE(case)=60% , VE(hosp)=88%
(NY-State gives 78% and 92%)
http://magictour.free.fr/nyc-21.GIF

France , 2022-01-01 , 2dose : -25% , 57% , 72%  (case,hosp,ICU)
France , 2022-01-01 , 3dose :  48% , 74% , 85%  (case,hosp,ICU)

Iceland, 2022-01-25  :  VE(2dose,case)=-35% , VE(2dose,hosp)=60% ,
VE(3dose,case)=40% , VE(3dose,hosp)=80%
http://magictour.free.fr/ice-0125.GIF

Germany, 2022-01-27 , http://rki2w04.GIF    40,70,80,85   ,   75,90,96,94

Israel, 2022-01-27 , average of 5 oldest age10groups
2dose>6m : 45,63 ; 2d>6m or 3dose : 45,88     for inf.,severe

UK,3dose : http://magictour.free.fr/3dosek.GiF

2022-01-16 , California : http://magictour.free.fr/ca-0116.GIF
68,80,87,93   2,3dose ; case,hosp


( how can it be 76% in CA and NY  but 10% in ONT and 40% in ICE ? )
46 in ITA , 30 in UK , 70% in DE


s also the effect that unvaccinated people are more likely to have natural immunity
and this increasing over time. Countries/States rarely report cases nd hospitalisations by
vaccination status _and_ status of previous infection
« Last Edit: February 07, 2022, 09:18:54 pm by gsgs »

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gsgs

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Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2022, 11:37:44 pm »

Paul Mainwood makes these nice weekly updated computer-readable data files for UK-VE ,
since 22 weeks
https://github.com/PaulMainwood/vaccine-surveillance-reports/blob/main/assortment%20of%20denominators.csv
https://github.com/PaulMainwood/vaccine-surveillance-reports/blob/main/vaccine%20surveillance.csv

that gives VE(UK,3dose)=
40,93,98%  for case,hosp,death

while figures 1-2 and table 8 suggest 
65,85,88% (7weeks) for symp,hosp,death
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1052353/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_5.pdf


average of age10grougs40-80,
boost 0%-50% Oct01-Jan01 average 7 weeks ago
average of AZ+AZ+BNT and BNT+BNT+BNT
wanes 2% per week for VE(case) and 1.2% per week for VE(hosp)

Germany : 75,91,98%   
(1*[18-59]+2*[>65])/3,3dose,clinical symp,hosp,death)

Italy :


gsgs

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Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2022, 12:07:17 am »
actual omicron vaccine effectiveness reports
-------------------------------------

location,date,doses,time since last dose, VE(case,symp,hosp,ICU,death)


UK-:40,--,93          waning by 2% and 1.2% per week
DEU:--,75,90,96,96    clinical symptoms
ITA:--,68,  91
ICE:42,--,80
ISR:40,--,88
ONT:15,--,50     2-3 dose
-NY:--,77,92
-CA:87,--,93
-OR:83,--   2dose:68,--
-WA:75,86     2-3 dose
FRA:--,88,86,--           1201-0116         -27(00-19)
FRA:--,69,79,--
FRA,2021-12-12,:86,91,93,96,90           case,symp,hosp,ICU,death  age>20

gsgs

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Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« Reply #3 on: February 28, 2022, 01:19:40 pm »

-BA.1 is 94.9% effective against BA.2
-BA.2 is 85.6% effectives against BA.1
---------------------------------------
current VE in %
DEU,3  ,--,69,87,95,95
UK ,3  ,18,--,84,--,95
ITA,3  ,73,--,89,94,94
NY ,23 ,70,--,90,--,--
ICE,3  ,50,--,30,--,--
CA ,3  ,81,--,90,--,94
ONT,23 ,00,--,56,76,--
location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death

gsgs

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Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2022, 01:51:09 am »
basic vaccinations (2dose) seem to play a bigger role wrt. deaths than boosters
almost no effect on case-counts  (urban USA, omicron-wave)
http://magictour.free.fr/cou23a.GIF
550 Counties with population >100000, making 71% of the US-population
(also excluding the big rural.urban differences of omicron)
taking % of elderly boosted (19%-94%, omitting 9 Counties with extreme values,
and some Sates not available, e.g. Florida)
average of Counties, not weighted by population
(focussing on County policy , no magnitude-bias)
gives deathrates
49,60,60,69,60,64,59,62,50,40
for 0-10%,...,90%-100% of elderly boosted (average of 2 values in Dec.and Feb),
I forgot the exact dates)
cases and deaths from usafacts, vax from CDC)

(processed) datafiles :
cou23a.r1
cou23b.r1
result-file : cou23.l2

« Last Edit: April 12, 2022, 02:20:18 am by gsgs »

gsgs

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Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« Reply #5 on: May 02, 2022, 12:01:36 pm »
updates , May 2022 :

Italy ; http://magictour.free.fr/ita-2427.GIF
Germany : http://magictour.free.fr/rki2w17.GIF
France : https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/sites/default/files/2022-04/3_4.png
Ontario :
California :
New York :


current VE in % , 2022-05-01
location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death
Code: [Select]
DEU,2  ,--,35,70,80,80
DEU,3  ,--,26,71,87,87
UK ,3  ,14,--,84,--,93
UK ,2  ,05,--,35,--,59
ITA,3  ,62,--,81,87,91
iTA,2  ,66,--,68,74,74
NY ,2-3,68,--,88,--,--
ICE,3  ,39,--,17,--,--
ICE,2  ,-19,-,71,--,--     during the wave :
CA ,3  ,76,--,87,--,94     80,90,94
CA ,2-?,81,--,82,--,87     65,83,87
ONT,2-3,00,--,56,76,--
US14, 2,--,--,75,--,--
US14, 3,--,--,92,--,--
FRA,3  ,57,--,80,86,91
CDC,2-3,66,--,--,--,90
QAT,  2,00,--,--,--,--
QAT,  3,52,--,--,--,--
VT ,  3,  ,  ,73,  ,
VT ,  2,  ,  ,47,  ,
MS ,  3,  ,  ,  ,  ,74
CHL,  2,
CHL,  3,

EU3,  3,58,33,81,88,89

CA ,3  ,80,--,89,--,92   omicron wave
CA ,2-?,70,--,82,--,85
VA ,3  ,91,--,80,--,92   omicron wave
VA ,2-?,60,--,65,--,85
OR ,3  ,66,--,--,--,--   omicron wave
OR ,2-?,33,--,--,--,--


location,doses,case,symp,hosp,ICU,death


Hongkong , 180d after last dose B=BNT,S=Sinovac
B--,--,--,--,--,77
S--,--,--,--,--,61
BB-,01,--,60,--,70(90)
SS-,01,--,60,--,70(80)
BBB,77,--,94,--,95
BBS,44,--,80,--,95
SSB,29,--,80,--,90
SSS,08,--,80,--,90




================================================

VE-links
CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#rates-by-vaccine-status
https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-COVID-19-Cases-or-Deaths-by-Age-Group-and/3rge-nu2a
https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/3rge-nu2a/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD
SD-County: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html
LA-County: http://www.ph.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/reopening-dashboard.htm
OK: https://oklahoma.gov/covid19/newsroom/weekly-epidemiology-and-surveillance-report.html
AR: https://www.healthy.arkansas.gov/programs-services/topics/covid-19-reports
Oregon weekly reports :https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl:944807
Oregon, weekly breakthrough reports :https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl%3A968511
VA: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/
DC : https://coronavirus.dc.gov/data/vaccination
CA: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Post-Vaccine-COVID19-Cases.aspx
https://data.chhs.ca.gov/dataset/covid-19-post-vaccination-infection-data
USA weekly reports by State : https://healthdata.gov/browse?tags=covid-19-spr&page=2
UT: https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/risk.html
MS: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,23549,420,971.html
SC: https://scdhec.gov/covid19/covid-19-data/cases-hospitalizations-deaths-among-not-fully-vaccinated
VT: https://dfr.vermont.gov/about-us/covid-19/modeling
WA-Clark: https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/media/image/2021-09/case_rate_by_vax_status_09.08.21.JPG
WA: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/420-339-VaccineBreakthroughReport.pdf
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/421-010-CasesInNotFullyVaccinated.pdf
NY: https://projects.thecity.nyc/2020_03_covid-19-tracker/
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page?mod=article_inline#daily  (wait)
https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data
https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data
https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/tree/master/trends
WI : https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-status.htm
MN : https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/stats/vbt.html
FRA: https://covidtracker.fr/vaximpact/
https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/recherche?text=Covid-19

Ontario.CA: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario
BC-CA : https://www.victoriabuzz.com/2021/10/bc-health-officials-report-624-new-cases-of-covid-19-on-thursday-october-7th/
Manitoba,
https://geoportal.gov.mb.ca/apps/manitoba-covid-19-cases-and-risk-by-vaccination-status/explore

England: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-technical-briefings
Scotland : https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/show-all-releases?id=20580
Wales : https://www2.nphs.wales.nhs.uk/CommunitySurveillanceDocs.nsf/3dc04669c9e1eaa880257062003b246b/a4f536f72da3962b8025875a0031b3c8/$FILE/Survey%20of%20vaccine%20status%20in%20cases%20and%20hospital%20inpatients.pdf

ICE: https://www.covid.is/data
Italy : https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati

CDC vacc.   https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-Case-Trends-by-Age-Group-/gxj9-t96f/data

« Last Edit: May 02, 2022, 12:33:49 pm by gsgs »

gsgs

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Re: omicron vaccine effectiveness
« Reply #6 on: June 04, 2022, 10:36:34 am »
Italy update :
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglianza-integrata-COVID-19_31-maggio-2022.pdf

reinfections back to 6% (figura 21)

VE(3dose; case,hosp,ICU,death) now at 08,70,74,84
,10 weeks ago it was 48,86,91,93

case , 27,08,22, 00,00,00, 44,46,55
hosp , 54,28,38, 66,58,58, 82,80,72
ICU  , 67,47,41, 74,71,50, 84,86,74
death, 58,27,51, 72,76,78, 89,88,87

VE in % in France during the omicron wave , 2022-12-13 - 2022-05-22
numbers estimated from the graphics at
https://drees.solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/communique-de-presse/statut-vaccinale-des-personnes-testees-ou-hospitalisees-avec-covid-19-derriere


2dose , 3dose>3m , 3dose<3m ; 40-59,60-79,80+

average of the 3 agegroups :

        2,3>,3<
---------------
case , 19,00,48
hosp , 40,61,78
ICU  , 52,65,81
death, 45,75,88

« Last Edit: June 04, 2022, 02:13:18 pm by gsgs »