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Author Topic: Apr07 model UofWA  (Read 683 times)

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Apr07 model UofWA
« on: April 07, 2020, 07:58:15 am »
Apr.07 , Chris Murray , UofWA  Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation · covid19.healthdata.org

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning
We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally
COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning · covid19-projections.com

Reports
covid19forecasthub.eu

Covid-19: National and Subnational estimates for India
Estimates presented here are no longer updated as of 31 March 2022. For more information on the rationale behind this move and some reflections on 2 years of global nowcasting and forecasting, plea...
Covid-19 · epiforecasts.io


----------------------------------------------------------------

COVID-19-deaths until Aug04
peak-date
country
-------------------------

00385,Mar31,Austria
03546,Apr06,Belgium
00303,Apr24,Bulgaria
00166,Apr20,Croatia
00054,Apr19,Cyprus
00411,Apr12,Czechia
00529,Apr09,Denmark
00484,Apr25,Estonia
00225,Apr21,Finland
15058,Apr01,France
08802,Apr14,Germany
00457,Apr18,Greece
00477,Apr23,Hungary
00401,Apr04,Ireland
20300,Mar28,Italy
00125,Apr25,Latvia
05808,Apr10,Netherlands
01953,Apr21,Poland
19209,Mar31,Spain
04182,Apr25,Sweden
66314,Apr17,UK
81766,Apr15,USA

--------------------------------------------
update 0408, 60415,Apr11,USA
update 0413, 68841,Apr10,USA
update 0413, 23791,Apr14,UK
update 0413, 15834,May04,NL
update 0413, 17448,Apr02,F
update 0413, 21130,Mar28,I

IHME,Mar27, USA=81114
IHME,Apr01, USA=93765,
IHME,Apr08, USA=60415,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20300,F=15058,D=8802,B=3546,Ire=0527,NY=13307
IHME,Apr16, USA=60415,UK=66314
IHME,Apr17, USA=68841,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20333,F=15058,D=7080,B=4291,Ire=527,NY=13307
IHME,Apr22, USA=67641,UK=31929,S=10584,I=26867,F=23304,D=6124,B=8128,Ire=1030,NY=24000
IHME,Apr29, USA=72860,UK=31476,S=15625,I=27544,F=24918,D=6946,B=7708,Ire=1404,NY=24314
IHME,May06,USA=134475,UK=40555,S=10196,I=31458,F=28859,D=8543,B=9464,Ire=1698,NY=32132
IHME,May12,USA=147040,UK=43479,S=5769,I=35137,F=31155,D=9905,B=10594,Ire=1736,NY=34068
Brazil=88305,Canada=9945,Mexico=6859,Peru=6428,Turkey=5263,IL=7830,PA=12420,CA=5832,OH=2844
IHME,May29,USA=135109,UK=44389,S=05258,I=43297,F=31466,D=9146,B=9699,Ire=1692,NY=31295
Brazil=125833,Canada=8148,Mex=6859,Peru=19722,Turkey=4759,Russia=7201,
CA=12951,GA=2759,IL=6371,MO=996,NY=31295,OH=3227,PA=6418,TX=2025
IHME,Jun17,USA=201129(by Oct01),UK=43963(Aug04),S=8534,I=35230,F=34602,D=9500,B=11093,Ire=1727
BRA=165960,CDN=8148,MEX=51912,PER=19722,Turkey=5176,Russia=21895
CA=15155,GA=10142,IL=8274,MO=1647,NY=33685,OH=3658,PA=8831,TX=5567
IHME,Jun28,USA=179106,UK=47924(Oct01),S=5754,I=41756,F=30391,D=11555,B=9869,Ire=1790,
BRA=166362,CDN=10053,MEX=88150,PER=36210,Turkey=29895,Russia=19105,PAK=42188
CA=11631,GA=6614,IL=8487,MO=2778,NY=31837,OH=3781,PA=7799,TX=13736
« Last Edit: April 24, 2021, 10:45:15 pm by gsgs »
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2020, 04:54:05 am »
another forecaster :

COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning
We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally
COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning · covid19-projections.com


2020/05/20
USA:195077 deaths by Aug04 , 143357
Sweden : 7331 , 5760
UK: 50070 , 43479
Germany: 10836
Ukraine:7842 , 1269
Belgium: 10388
Poland: 2475 , 1990
Brazil: 136958 , 88305
China: 4642
India: 42361
Indonesia: 2572
Iran: 13296
Mexico: 67887 , 6859
Nigeria: 681
Russia: 16758
Bangladesh: 3370

Europe: 217562
World: 776423

Jun01,
US=192098,S=7028,UK=47696,DE=10399,UKR=3378,B=10196,POL=2133,BRA=139005,
CHN=4648,IND=55797,IDN=5654,Iran=11985,MEX=97096,NIG=1543,Russia=23727,BGD=6065
CA=12938,GA=6080,IL=10499,MO=2743,NY=33017,OH=6560,PA=9492,TX=5563

Jun17,(by Oct01)
US=189793,S=6314,UK=49276,DE=10481,UKR=3600,B=10078,POL=3294,BRA=121826,
CHN=4648,IND=358926,IDN=9179,IRN=16640,MEX=84651,NIG=2654,RUS=22371,BGD=10994
CA=16484,GA=5869,IL=11777,MO=1692,NY=32952,OH=5212,PA=9382,TX=4511

India projected at 360000 deaths now ! It was 56000 on Jun01, I wonder what changed

Jun29,(by Oct01)
US=180095,S=6325,UK=48877,DE=10535,UKR=3309,B=10022,POL=3017,MDA=1502,BRA=133726
CHN=4649,IND=100789,IDN=8233,IRN=19750,MEX=98421,NIG=1867,RUS=19092,BGD=8633
CA=14430,GA=5941,IL=10368,MO=1759,NY=33439,OH=5038,PA=9343,TX=7006

India back to 100000
« Last Edit: June 29, 2020, 09:32:35 am by gsgs »
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2020, 02:40:48 am »
article
.@IHME_UW now projects 410,451 #COVID19 deaths by Jan 1st, this is about 224,000 deaths from now until the end of the year. These are not numbers or statistics but family member, friends, and loved...
X (formerly Twitter) · twitter.com


IHME on Sep04 predicts 410000 deaths for USA until Jan01

covid-projections gives 220300 until Nov01, 16000 per month (-->260000 until Jan01)
« Last Edit: September 04, 2020, 02:46:23 am by gsgs »
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2020, 08:01:58 pm »
Sep23 , IHME deaths forecast for Jan01 :
USA=378321,CHN=6915,AUS=950,IDN=22346,AUT=4236,BEL=13488,CRO=2878,CZE=8080,
FRA=88528,GER=22664,ITA=67687,RUS=98182,SRB=771,SPA=65921,SWE=9813,UK=93429
BRA=170072,MEX=139894,ISR=7153,CAN=17511,NY=43857,IND=625165,

Sep23,covidtracker deaths forecast for Nov01 :
USA=222951,NY=33425,CAN=9777,AUT=883,BEL=10240,CRO=356,CZE=931,FRA=34991,
GER=9667,ITA=36812,SPA=37969,SWE=5957,UK=43826
AUS=981,BRA=159314,CHN=4790,IND=135730,IDN=14641,ISR=2095,MEX=88524,
RUS=24337,



---------------------
France currently has  31416 total deaths and 50 per day
it currently redoubles every 14 days
31416+75*14+150*14+300*10=37566  by Nov01
===> deaths by Nov01
« Last Edit: September 22, 2020, 08:24:40 pm by gsgs »
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2020, 05:54:09 am »
2020/12/09, death forecasts per 2021/04/01 by IHME :
USA=538893,GER=108119,FRA=93581,ITA=101176,UK=118674,BRA=217147,IRN=94389

2021-06-13, death forecasts per 2021-10-01 by IHME :
USA=950337,GER=133026,FRA=143473,ITA=164264,UK=153761,BRA=727083,IND=1198621,all,9505216

« Last Edit: June 12, 2021, 10:36:42 pm by gsgs »
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2021, 10:48:43 pm »
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Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Reply #6 on: June 27, 2021, 09:26:05 pm »
IHME death-predictions for 2021-06-28 and 2021-10-01 on 2021-06-28 :
USA,925751,949335
UK,152318,163383
GER,132000,133264
BRA,643700,761018
CHL,32285,44985
ISR,6860,6901
IND,1111110,1162831
IDN,152432,386181
RUS,852715,1003439
SA,156505,208921

IHME death-predictions for 2021-12-01 on 2021-08-25 :
USA:727949
UK:166634
GER:117836
IND:458856
BRA:642610
MEX:298179
IDN:216577
AUS:2041
NZ:29

« Last Edit: August 24, 2021, 08:54:03 pm by gsgs »
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