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81
vaccine / Re: takes over a year (Jan.2020)
« Last post by gsgs on August 02, 2020, 12:46:25 am »
Aug02 , > Russia preparing mass vaccination against #coronavirus for October -
teachers and doctors first, Fauci concerned they are not testing enough
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jul28 , Nach den Plänen von Biontech sollen im Erfolgsfall bis Ende des Jahres zunächst 100 Millionen
Impfstoffdosen weltweit geliefert werden. Bis Ende 2021 streben Biontech und der
US-Pharmakonzern Pfizer an, mehr als 1,3 Milliarden weitere Dosen bereitzustellen.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug03
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalzberg/2020/08/02/start-vaccinating-now/
We Should Consider Starting Covid-19 Vaccinations Now
Steven Salzberg
 > why not start administering millions of doses right now? We should. [without phase 3]
{the risk from side effects being lower than the risk from COVID due to vaccine-delays}

# I was wondering, why this hadn't been widely discussed already since February.
# Also, the number of people/animals in the phases and the number of phases,
# that should all have been optimized for this situation
# and not just been taken from previous regulations
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug.09
EU-Gesundheitsministerin Kyriakides hofft, dass in sechs Monaten ein #Corona-Impfstoff zur Verfügung steht.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug.11
Russland hat einen Impfstoff gegen das #Coronavirus für die breite Verwendung zugelassen.
Die Testphase wurde allerdings verkürzt.
 Russia registers a COVID-vaccine for brought usage.
The testphase has been shortened.
Putin's daughter is already vaccinated with 2 shots
Russia hoped to launch mass production within weeks and turn out “several million”
doses per month by 2021.
# So, presumably they have not millions of doses this year and they are
# basically doing what others call "phase 3" although probably
# with more people
HCWs can volunteer to get it first
--------------------------------------------
Russia claimed today it had approved a COVID-19 vaccine
- tested in just 76 people
- may be given to “a small number of citizens from vulnerable groups,”
- cannot be used widely until 2021
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-press-release
-------------------------------------------
Brazil and Israel are interested in the vax (to buy it ?!)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Aug13
Das RKI rechnet nicht damit, dass ein Impfstoff bereits im Herbst 2020 zur Verfügung stehen wird“:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Curevac schließt die beschleunigte Zulassung des möglichen Corona-Impfstoffes nicht aus.
Politische Entscheidung.
Die Ergebnisse der kürzlich gestarteten klinischen Erprobung des Impfstoffkandidaten
sollen demnach im Herbst veröffentlicht werden. Die Zulassung sei nach bisheriger
Planung für die erste Hälfte kommenden Jahres geplant.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
82
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on July 14, 2020, 07:47:10 pm »


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
Spain : https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_74_COVID-19.pdf
Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
US: https://covidtracking.com/api  https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
ESP: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/agregados.csv
OxCGRT-Index : https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/raw/master/data/OxCGRT_latest.csv

-------------------------------------------------
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0608.GIF
----- update, cases only : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0705.GIF
----- weekly, by cases per pop : http://magictour.free.fr/wo-18.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0531.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0612.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0626.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
UK : http://magictour.free.fr/engl0520.GIF
euromomo : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo21.GIF
===================================
2020/06/22
China,18,2,7,99Beijing,2Hebei ; Korea,17 ; Germany,537,3,R=2.88(2.03)
India,39;Brazi,16;Chile,20;Peru,14;Mexico,30;Nigeria,22;PAK,29;BGD,32,w18616,21751,24786
MDA=29;BGR,28;MKD,20;ISR,14;ALB,38;UKR,21;ROM=12,AZE=38;ARM=31
Trump approval rating 41.4:55.2 , down from 45.8:49.7 in Mar which was his best so far
==================================
2020/06/23
China,22+2+7,13Beijing ; Korea,46 ; Germany,503,10,R=2.76(1.82)
India,36 ; Brazil,16,Chile,20,Mexico,25,MDA,29,ALB,17,AZE,38,ARM,31
vaccine overview : https://www.winway.me/health-remedies/astrazeneca-taps-catalent-for-covid-19-vaccine-finishing-packaging-at-italian-plant/
still unclear whether AstaZeneca delivers _by_ yearend or only starts delivering then
Germany with and without hotspots : http://magictour.free.fr/rkiwee4.GIF
There is a 2 month gap between the between the European genomes and the Beijing outbreak.
 Beijing market outbreak ‘coming to an end’, health expert says
 >90% with steep declines antibodies within 2 to 3 months
50% positivity-rate in Mexico
====================================
2020/06/24
China,12+4+3,7Beijing,2Hebei  ; Korea,51   ; Germany,587,19,R=2.02(1.67)
Mexico,34 ; Brazil,36 ; Chile,15 ; AZE,38 ; ALB,26 ; BGR,20 ; Ind,35
DEU,w3792,3026,2515,2296,4023
FRA,w2376,5290*,3340*,3184,3378
SPA,w4222,3657,2121,2378,2344
NLA,w1329,1069,1256,1184,635?
ITA,w3856,2960,2046,1939,1333
POL,w2807,2321,3165,2635,2332
CZE,w480,313,360,396,474
AUT,w268,271,213,180,245
BEL,w1664,1160,822,718,655
CHE,w,143,113,114,158,186
DEN,w385,307,267,249,311
UK-,w14370,14797,11155,8996,8074
no 2nd wave in central and western and southwestern Europe
========================================
2020/06/25
China,19+0+1,13Beijing,1Hebei ; Korea,28 ; Germany,630,13,R=0.72,1.17 (4day and 7day average)
India,36 ; Brazil,37 ; Mexico,28 ; Texas,46 ;
ALB,33;AZE,38;ARM,31;MKD,26;BGR,31;MDA,29;GRE,05;Turkey,08;ROM,13
70% of infections in Lombardia asymptomatic
42% in Ischgl have antibodies
=================================================
2020/06/26
Cina,13+3+5,11Beijing ; Korea,     ;Germany,477,21,R=0.59,1.11
India,37;Brazil,37;Mexico,31;Texas,35,43,36,29,48,46,48
ALB,47;AZE,38;BGR,39;Bosn,20;Croatia,40;ROM,17;UKR,25;POL,09;ISR,25;GRE,05
WHO warns about increased spread in 11 European countries:
Armenia, Sweden, Moldova, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Kosovo.
{add Bulgaria,Romania,Croatia - see above}
==================================
2020/06/27
China,21+1+12,17Beijing ; Korea,51 ; Germany,R=0.57,1.02
India,37;Brazil,33;MEX,27;TEX,43;
ALB,35;AZE,38;BGR,39,BUH,20;CRO,23;ROM,16,UKR,28; POL,09;ISR,16;GRE,05;
MDA,29;ARM,31;MKD,29;HUN,01;CYP,00;TUR,07;SER,08; KOS,51
====================================
2020/06/28
China,17+1+7,14Beijing ; Korea,62 ; Germany,256,3,R=0.62,0.83
India,38 ; Brazil,38 ; Chile,18 ; Mexico,21 ; Texas,42
ALB,27;AZE,35;BGR,39;BUH,20;CRO,34;ROM,13;UKR,28;POL,10;ISR,18;GRC,05
MDA,29;ARM,31;MKD,26;HUN,03;CYP,00;TUR,07;SRB,08;KOS,38;CZE,05
Germany,Czech back to normal. Croatia,Bulgaria,Ukraine up
83
vaccine / Re: takes over a year (Jan.2020)
« Last post by gsgs on June 24, 2020, 07:12:59 am »
22.05.2020 · “This contract with AstraZeneca is a major milestone in Operation Warp
Speed’s work toward a safe, effective, widely available vaccine by 2021,” U.S. Health
Secretary Alex Azar said.

Operation Warp Speed Aims to Deliver 300M Vaccine Doses by January.

A potential coronavirus vaccine developed by French drugmaker Sanofi and Britain's
GlaxoSmithKline is expected to be approved by the first half of 2021.

Sanofi said it had capacity to produce up to 1 billion doses a year

Shionogi and the NIID aim to put the vaccine on the market in fall 2021.

Pfizer/BioNTech 2M per dec31, 200M in 2021

AS, May, total capacity sourced for one billion doses through 2020 and into 2021;

AstraZeneca (ticker: AZN) has arranged for enough capacity to supply one billion doses of the vaccine in 2020 and 2021

May 21 (Reuters) - AstraZeneca expects to be able to deliver a billion doses of a possible
COVID-19 vaccine this year and next

AstraZeneca says it has secured capacity to produce 2 billion doses

84-90% of vaccine candidates fail (have "attrition") in Phase III clinical trials[4][54]

Walter Ricciardi,WHO : there is quite a strong probability that the vaccine will work

Sanofi would be able to supply up to 360 million doses of its mRNA vaccine annually

In April, Sanofi said it had manufacturing capacity for 600 million doses for its recombinant
vaccine, with the ambition to double production by mid-2021.

Sanofi said it had capacity to produce up to 1 billion doses a year

23.06.2020 · Sanofi said it had capacity to produce up to 1 billion doses a year of its recombinant
vaccine, and that it would be able to supply up to 360 million doses of its mRNA vaccine annually.

"We believe the probability of success is high enough that we are willing to support the
manufacturing at-risk," Dr. Hatchett said.

 AstraZeneca said it reached a second agreement with the Serum Institute of India to provide
one billion doses for low and middle-income countries, including 400 million by the end of this year.

Last month, AstraZeneca agreed to provide 100 million doses to the U.K., with an initial
supply of 30 million doses per September.

Initial supplies of any successful vaccine are expected to be limited. Some drugmakers have
sought to set up manufacturing capacity in multiple countries, in case individual countries
impose export bans on any successful vaccines produced within their borders.

June 04, 2020

 Jun 16 ,  HHS says vaccine likely by January

 when a safe and effective vaccine will be developed and distributed, and on Tuesday, the
Department of Health and Human Services said that January 2021 is a likely timeframe for
when that might happen.
The projection is based on the current efforts of HHS' Operation Warp Speed, an initiative that
aims to deliver 300 million doses

 stay-at-home and other social-distancing orders have cost the country an estimated $25 billion per day,

 We cannot promise a 100% chance of success, but we've maximized the probability of success," said Mango.

Bourla made the decision to spend $1 billion on the project, so if the vaccine works, it can be
made available this autumn.

At current rates, the US economy is losing about $40 billion a week.


--------------------
STAT : 2 doses may be needed

84
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on June 21, 2020, 08:39:32 pm »
copies of these posts  readable also by non-members are here :
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ncov-discussion/updates/msg239/#msg239
[one new post each Monday)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
Spain : https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_74_COVID-19.pdf
Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
====2020/06/21 no longer works ?-------
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
US: https://covidtracking.com/api  https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
ESP: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/agregados.csv
OxCGRT-Index : https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/raw/master/data/OxCGRT_latest.csv

-------------------------------------------------
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0608.GIF
----- update, cases only : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0617.GIF
----- weekly, by cases per pop : http://magictour.free.fr/wo-16.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0531.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0612.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0620.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
UK : http://magictour.free.fr/engl0520.GIF
euromomo : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo21.GIF

=========================================
2020/06/15
China,49+1+18,36BJ,3Hebei  ; Korea,37   ;  Germany,192,4,R=1.05(1.00)
India,39,w38 ; Brazil, ; POL,13,w14 ;
Rou,15,w10; MKD,41,w43; BGR,30,w27; MDA,33,w27;  AZE,38,w41; UKR,21,w20; Iran,13,w12

SARS2 on a cutboard for imported salmon in Beijing
Experts said it is extremely unlikely for seafood like salmon to be the carrier
of the novel coronavirus,
a mutated variety from Europe.
in cold containers
=================================================
2020/06/16
China,40+3+6,27Beijing,4Hebei,1Sichuan ;  Korea,34 ; Germany,378,9,R=1.19(1.05) ;
 India,36 ; Brazil,20 ; MKD,26;AZE,38;BGR,16;SWE,19,w27
[I can't get to Beijing-health web site , https://wjw.beijing.gov.cn/  "unsafe site"]
===================================================
2020/06/17
China,44+3+11,31Beijing,1Hebei,1Zhejiang ; Korea,43   ;Germany,345,9,R=0.86(1.00)
India,32 (2000 new deaths ?) ; BRA,39;MKD,32;AZE,38;BGR,33;SWE,19
Wu Zunyou : the Beijing-like virus is very prevalent in many countries. It is not in China
# he should just give the mutations (~10-20 mutations expected), so we can see
# where that strain first emerged
------------------------------------------
Shi :  I think we will find a direct ancestor
----------------------------------------------
 RmYN02 is available to GISAID-members since Jun09 EPI_ISL_412977
----------------------------------------------
https://covid19-projections.com/   {seems to be better than the IHME - forecasts}
Jun01, COVID deaths forecast
US=192098,S=7028,UK=47696,DE=10399,UKR=3378,B=10196,POL=2133,BRA=139005,
CHN=4648,IND=55797,IDN=5654,Iran=11985,MEX=97096,NIG=1543,Russia=23727,BGD=6065
CA=12938,GA=6080,IL=10499,MO=2743,NY=33017,OH=6560,PA=9492,TX=5563

Jun17,(by Oct01)
US=189793,S=6314,UK=49276,DE=10481,UKR=3600,B=10078,POL=3294,BRA=121826,
CHN=4648,IND=358926,IDN=9179,IRN=16640,MEX=84651,NIG=2654,RUS=22371,BGD=10994
CA=16484,GA=5869,IL=11777,MO=1692,NY=32952,OH=5212,PA=9382,TX=4511

India projected at 360000 deaths now ! It was 56000 on Jun01, I wonder what changed
===========================================
2020/06/18
China,28+3+8,24Beijing,2Hebai,1Tianjin ;  Korea,59 ; Germany,580,26,R=0.86(0.89)
India,32 [1672 backlogged deaths yesterday] ; Brazil,39;MEX,32
SWE,??;BGR,33;MKD,45;MDA,33;AZE,58
------------------------------------------
only 4% (=one fifth) of an estimated 20% infected HCW in Wuhan have antibodies
10% may lose immunity after a month, little immunity in mild cases
--------------------------------------
Wu Zunyou - Chief Epidemiologist of the Chinese CDC - now believes the Beijing
outbreak is under control.
---------------------------------------
2 human + 1 env. genomes from Beijing-outbreak @GISAID , global lineage no specific mutations
============================================
2020/06/19
China,32+2+5,25Beijing,2Hebei,1Liaoning ; Korea,49 ; Germany770,16, R=0.86(1.00)
India,w69660,80367 ; Brazil,w188400,182961 ; Chile,w35800,41000+30000 ; MKD,w927,1126
-----------------------------------
ISS : SARS2 in waste water of Torino and Milan in Dec. !
------------------------------------
AstraZeneca will deliver 400,000 doses of the vaccine to European nations by the end of 2020.
-------------------------------------0
=====================================
2020/06/20
China,27+0+7,22Beijing,1Hebei ; Korea,67 ; Germany,601,11,R=1.06(1.17)
India,37 ; Brazil,56 ; Peru,14 ; Chile,30 , MKD,33 ; AZE,38
busy with genbank 238
===================================
2020/06/21
China,26+3+6,22Beijing,3Hebei ; Korea,48 ; Germany,687,-1,R=1.79(1.55)
India,38;Brazil,56;Chile,20;Peru,14;Mexico,28
Israel,w269,154,104,300,740,1220,1661 ; MKD,38 ; AZE,38 ; BGR,w233,91,169,501,586
USA,w143433,145608,135395,170069
DAX:12331,ESt50:3269,Dow:25871,Bitcoin:8390,Euro:1.1178,oil:41.92,Gold:1744
85
vaccine / Re: takes over a year (Jan.2020)
« Last post by gsgs on June 17, 2020, 07:26:55 am »
2020/06/17

Das Tübinger Biotechunternehmen CureVac geht davon aus, dass es bis Mitte kommenden Jahres
einen Corona-Impfstoff geben könnte.
86
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on June 14, 2020, 08:54:55 pm »





https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Jilin : http://wsjkw.jl.gov.cn/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_74_COVID-19.pdf
Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
F: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/b4ea7b4b-b7d1-4885-a099-71852291ff20
US: https://covidtracking.com/api  https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
ESP: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/agregados.csv
-------------------------------------------------
mobility : http://magictour.free.fr/mobil2.GIF { mobility deleted because
I realised that Apple has some lengthy legalese conditions }
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0608.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0531.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0612.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0530.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
UK : http://magictour.free.fr/engl0520.GIF
euromomo : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo21.GIF
============================================
2020/06/08
China,4+1+2 ; Korea,#38 ; Germnay,214,6,R=1.05 ; India,42  ; Brazil,42 ; PAK,(53)
EU : MKD,(17,45) ; ALB,(14) ; ARM,(42,50) ; AZE,(42) ; SWE,(15) ; BER,(19) ; RUS,(20)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2405-7_reference.pdf
Italy,
===============================================
2020/06/09
China,3+0+21 ; Korea,38  ;  Germany,350,37,R=1.11 ; India,40 ; Brazil,28 ; PAK,45
MKD,42;ARM,15;AZE,47
57% in Bergamo have antibodies ,9.5^ in GE, 7.0% in VD,1.1% in ZH, 15-30% in India
WHO: asymptomatics rarely spread it
=============================================
2020/06/10
China,3+1+5 ; Korea,50  ; Germany,318,18,R=1.10,(3006,2491) ; India,39 ; Brazil,45 ; PAK,45
MKD,28;ARM,15;AZE,47;IRN,12
=================================================
2020/06/11
China,11+0+4 ; Korea,45 ; Germany,555,26,,R=0.86(0.86) ;
India,37 ; Brazil,45 ; MKD,38 ; ARM,39 ; Iran,11
AZE,590! , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Azerbaijan
-----------------------------------
maybe no more daily check+translate+process for Italy,China - I'm getting lazy ,
maybe one update per week is enough ...
--------------------------------
Germany COVID-ICU-patients on Sundays Apr12-Jun07 : 2405,2889,2541,1979,1581,1166,889,702,568
in % : +20,-12,-22,-20,-26,-24,-21,-19
---------------------------------
J&J ... to supply more than one billion doses globally through 2021.
Novavax Announces High Neutralizing #Antibody Titers in COVID-19 #Vaccine
=============================================
2012/06/12
China,7+0+1 ; Korea,56 ; Germany, 258,8,r=0.88(0.99) ; India,36 ; Brazil, AZE,
Ontario-data : https://data.ontario.ca/dataset?keywords_en=COVID-19
(best Covid-data providing that I've found so far ! Ontario-pop=14M)
DAX=12016,DOW=25557,Euro=1.133,Bitcoin=8385,gold=1732,oil=38.0\
==================================================
2020/06/13
China,11+0+7,6BJ ; Korea,49 ; Germany,348,18,R=0.87(1.04) ; India,39 ; Brazil,39
AZE,55,43,43,40,41,41,38 ; ARM,53,69,39,15,26,31 ; IRN,11,12,13 ; MKD,45,38,42,28,38,52,46
============================================
2020/06/14
China,57+1+9,36BJ,2LI ; Korea,34 ; Germany,247,6,R=1.02(1.09) ;
India,39(w38) ; Brazil,32(w36) ; MEX,25(w33) ; Nigeria,33(w36) ; IDN,28(w30) ,BGD,35(w43)
AZE,38(w41) ; ARM,31(w43) ; IRN,13(w12) ; MKD,53(w42)
87
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on June 08, 2020, 04:02:37 am »





https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Jilin : http://wsjkw.jl.gov.cn/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_74_COVID-19.pdf
Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
F: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/b4ea7b4b-b7d1-4885-a099-71852291ff20
US: https://covidtracking.com/api  https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
ESP: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/agregados.csv
-------------------------------------------------
mobility : http://magictour.free.fr/mobil2.GIF { mobility deleted because
I realised that Apple has some lengthy legalese conditions }
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0531.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0531.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0509.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0530.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
UK : http://magictour.free.fr/engl0520.GIF
euromomo : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo21.GIF
============================================
2020/06/01
China,16+0+16 ; Korea,#35 ; Germany,333,11 ; India,48 ; Brazil,72 ;
China vaccine by end2020, 100M doses per year
CanSino, 1e8/y ; Merck , Sanofi ; Sinovac 1e8/y ;
Novavax, 1.5e9/y ; Moderna, 1e9/y ; Sanofi, 3.5e8/y ; Pfizer, 3e8/y ,Astra Zeneca 1e9
Johnson, 7e8 by 4/21 ; GSK,1e9 adjuvants ;
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
IHME,May29,USA=135109,UK=44389,S=05258,I=43297,F=31466,D=9146,B=9699,Ire=1692
Brazil=125833,Canada=8148,Mex=6859,Peru=19722,Turkey=4759,Russia=7201,
CA=12951,GA=2759,IL=6371,MO=996,NY=31295,OH=3227,PA=6418,TX=2025
--------------------------------------------------------------------
covid-19.projections.com:
US=192098,S=7028,UK=47696,DE=10399,UKR=3378,B=10196,POL=2133,BRA=139005,
CHN=4648,IND=55797,IDN=5654,Iran=11985,MEX=97096,NIG=1543,Russia=23727,BGD=6065
CA=12938,GA=6080,IL=10499,MO=2743,NY=33017,OH=6560,PA=9492,TX=5563
---------------------------------------------------------------------
new study Shi Zhengly et.al. 630 new bat-sequences at genbank MN312240-MN312869 (not yet)
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.31.116061v1
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Italy,31395,178,5
==========================================
2020/06/02
China,5+0+10 ; Korea,36 ; Germany,213,11,R_t=1.20 ; Brazil,33 ; India,46 ; France,#338,31
Italy,52159,318,6
=============================================
2020/06/03
China,1+1+4 ; Korea,#49 ; Germany,342,29,R=0.89 ; Brazil,53,64,61,72,33,23,24 ; India,43 ; France,-766
excess deaths per M. population :
5500,Bergamo Province
2500,Brescia
2400,New York City
1500,Milan
1300,Madrid
1000,Paris
950, London Region
1000,Stockholm County
Italy,37299,321,8  (up)
==============================================
2020/06/04
China,2,0,12,1SX ; Korea,#39 ; Germany,394,30,R=0.71 ; Brazil,52  ; India,45
Fauci : hope to have 100s of millions of vaccine doses available by the beginning of 2021
Italy,49953,177,3
PharmAust Shares Soar Following Promising #Covid19 #Treatment Results
=============================================
2020/06/05
China,5+0+3 ;Korea,39 ; Germany,504,32,R=0.57(7d:0.80)
India,45 ; Brazil,52 ; Mexico,44 ; Bangladesh,44 ; Nigeria,32 ; Indonesia,21
(is it maybe because IDN was planning for a pandemic since 2005-H5N1 ?)
protective effect for blood group O (OR=0.65) 
build v153 hg38 , rs657153(chr9?) , rs11385942(chr3)   , SLC6A20
Italy,65028,518,7
=============================================
2020/06/06
China,3+1+2 ; Korea,#51 ;  Germany,407,33,R=0.68(0.83)   ; India,44,Brazil,50
Novavax Surging on $60M
SARS-CoV-2 Gene Deletions May Cause Milder disease , Spain
 complete absence of the S2 subunit
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.03.129585v1
Italy,72485,270,3
=================================================
3030/06/07
China,6+2+5,1HA  ; Korea,57  ; Germany,301,22,R=0.87(0.89) ; India,42(44) ; Brazil,42(44)
 Mexico,(38) ; Bangladesh,(51) ; Nigeria,(35) ; Indonesia,(24) ; Russia,(21) ; USA,13(12)
Iran,(11,14,16,17,16,19)
Brazil will no longer publish COVID-numbers in internet
China formulates plan to roll out vaccine before clinical trials are finished in race against Trump -
originated from a surface protein of Plasmodium malariae,
Israel study : smoking cuts COVID-risk by 50%
Bald Men at Higher #Risk of Severe #Coronavirus Symptoms
Italy,49478,197,(5,6,8,3,7,3,3), N=4,S=1
88
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on May 31, 2020, 08:50:56 pm »





https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Jilin : http://wsjkw.jl.gov.cn/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_74_COVID-19.pdf
Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
F: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/b4ea7b4b-b7d1-4885-a099-71852291ff20
US: https://covidtracking.com/api
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
ESP: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/agregados.csv
-------------------------------------------------
mobility : http://magictour.free.fr/mobil2.GIF { mobility deleted because
I realised that Apple has some lengthy legalese conditions }
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0524.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0515.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0509.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0530.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
UK : http://magictour.free.fr/engl0520.GIF
euromomo : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo21.GIF
============================================
2020/05/25
China,10+0+40 ; India,54 ; Brazil,46
Europe : http://magictour.free.fr/e-0524.GIF    still up: Armenia,Azerbaijan
horizontal : Russia,Belarus,Moldova,Poland,Ukraine,Sweden
Italy,35214 tests, 300 positive
=============================================
2020/05/26
China,7+0+29 ; India,53 ; Brazil,32 ; USA,13 ; Nigeria,42 ; Mexico,36 ; Russia,26
Indonesia,22 ; Pakistan,32 ; Bangladesh,48
somehow contained everywhere , surprisingly few (reported) deaths
[unexpected after Bergamo,NYC]
euroflu : http://magictour.free.fr/euflu20.PNG
Italy,57674 tests,397 positive , pr=12,12,9,8,8,9,9,8,6 ; N=8,S=2
=================================================
2020/05/27
Germany,432,362 new cases, 47 new deaths ,
r[t]=0.70,821 in ICU(max=2922),525 on ventilator(max=2180)
China,1+1+28 ; Korea +40=11265,20000 tests
India,47 ; Brazil,44 ; USA,11 ; Nigeria,31 ; Bangladesh,33
------------------------
active cases per million population :
USA,3460,BEL,2831,SGP,2715,SWE,2510,CHL,2420,BLR,2409,PER,2218,RUS,1558
...FRA,1353,...,BRZ,994,...,ITA,875,...,DEU,128,...,CHE,74,...,IND,59,...,
AUS,18,...,NZL,4,...,China,0.06
---------------------------
Italy,67324 tests,584 positive,pr=9,8,6,8
========================================
2020/05/28
China,2+0+23 ; Korea,#40,#79 ; India,44 ; Brazil,53
Germany,362,353 [47,62],R_t=0.68
Fauci: ‘We [NIAID] Might Have A Vaccine By The End Of The Year’
Pfizer also may have millions of doses by end 2020
Merck called 12-18 months “very aggressive,”
England, week 22 : https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888254/COVID19_Epidemiological_Summary_w22_Final.pdf
Italy,75893 tests, 593 positive, pr=7, N=9,S=2
================================================
2020/05/29
China,0+0+5 ; Korea,#40,#79,#58 ;Germany,353,741[62,39],r_t=0.61 ; India,43 ; Brazil,64
euromomo update : https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
a case with 10 weeks incubation time
-----------------------------------------
Recent preprint reporting that 24/24 (100%) people form Singapore infected
by SARS-1 in 2003 have pre-existing T-cell immunity against #SARSCoV2,
but more surprisingly 9/18 (50%) with no exposure to SARS-1 also possess
T-cells targeting #SARSCoV2.
------------------------------------
removing all policies on April 1st of 2020 would have lead to 30 to 200 times
more additional cases by late May.
-----------------------------------------
Italy, 72135 tests, 516 positive,pr=9,8,6,8,7,7
=========================================
2020/05/30
China,4+1+4 ; Korea,#39 ; Germany,741,738,[39,39],R_t=0.86 ; India,47 ; Brazil,64
-------------------------
10% of cases make 80% of the spread
USA to leave WHO ,(Congress must still approve ?)
------------------------------------------------------------
household-size (and not pop.density) was the most important factor in NYC
hmm, US-Census collects this all 10years by County,City
so there should be a good nationwide statistics already ?!
-------------------------------------------------------------
Germany , early spread , rural and urban : http://magictour.free.fr/de-early.GIF
Sinovac 99% sure Covid-19 vaccine will be 'effective'
----------------------------
Italy,69342,416;12,12,9,8,8,9,9,8,6,8,7,7,5
=========================================
2020/05/31
China,2+0+3 ; Korea,40,79,58,39,27 ; Germany,286,(11),r_t=1.03
India,48(39%w) ;Brazil,61(41%w) ;Russia,23(18%w) ;Bangladesh,41(39%w) ;Nigeria,59(31%w)
Indonesia,22(19%w) ;USA,14(9%w) ;Mexico,34(33%w)
40%w --> redoubles in 2 weeks


Moscow,St.Pet. : http://magictour.free.fr/rus0530.GIF
can this be explained by -whatever- measures ? Looks more like the
typical curve that goes up and down by immunity.
Immunity from seasonal Corona ? Immunity of superspreaders/travelers ?
genetics ? nutrition ? weather ?
Italy, 54118,355,pr=6
89
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on May 24, 2020, 10:58:45 pm »






https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Jilin : http://wsjkw.jl.gov.cn/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_74_COVID-19.pdf
Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
F: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/b4ea7b4b-b7d1-4885-a099-71852291ff20
US: https://covidtracking.com/api
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
ESP: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/agregados.csv
-------------------------------------------------
mobility : http://magictour.free.fr/mobil2.GIF { mobility deleted because
I realised that Apple has some lengthy legalese conditions }
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0510.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0515.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0509.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0502.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
UK : http://magictour.free.fr/engl0520.GIF
============================================
2020/05/18
China,7+1+18,2JI,1SH ; South Korea,+13=11050
Russia,36;India,58;Brazil,34,USA,17,Indonesia,29;Nigeria,32
-----------------------------------
countries with more democratic political institutions experienced deaths on a larger
per capita scale and sooner than less democratic countries.
-------------------------------
partial or targeted lockdown policies are efficient only when it is possible to
identify infected individuals.  https://www.nber.org/papers/w27134.pdf
--------------------------------------------
“we detected SARS-CoV-2−reactive CD4+ T cells in ∼40-60% of unexposed individuals,
suggesting cross-reactive T cell recognition between circulating ‘common cold’
coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2.” twitter.com/profshanecrott…
---------------------------------------------
NYC 'Excess' Mortality From Non-COVID Causes Rises Over 5000:
-------------------------------------------------
Switzerland : R[t] fell below 1 _before_ lockdown : https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090639v1.full.pdf
US: stay-at-home-orders effective : https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3571421
-------------------------------------------------
400 job losses per life saved in CA : https://www.nber.org/papers/w26992.pdf
Italy 36406 tests , 451 positive , pr=12
============================================
2020/05/19
dax=11078,dow=24488,euro=1.084,oil=32
China,6+1+17,2JI,1Hub ; SKor,+13=11078 ; India,58 ; USA,14
cluster of 34 infections in Jilin, "108M" under "lockdown"
Itali,63158 tests, 813 positive, pr=1.2%
====================================================
2020/05/20
China,5+3+16,4JI ; Korea,   India,52(52,61)
---------------------------------------------
with USA measures 1 week earlier, 61.6% of infections and 55.0% of deaths
could have been avoided
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655v1.full.pdf
--------------------------------------------
http://magictour.free.fr/de-8.GIF
I speculate that it peaked earlier in Cologne,Duesseldorf,Leverkusen,Bonn
because of Carneval and newspaper reports (and measures ?) from Heinsberg
which had an early outbreak nearby linked to Carneval.
As for the early peaks in Hamburg, Stuttgart - I don't know yet.
--------------------------------------
Extended Storage of SARS-CoV2 Nasopharyngeal Swabs Does Not Negatively
Impact Results of Molecular-Based Testing 
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.16.20104158v1
# so, we may see more sequences from stored ILI-samples from Jan,Feb ?!
-----------------------------------------------
cost in China = $380B , >99% due to production loss
------------------------------------------------
Italy,67195 tests, 665 positive, pr-0.9% , LO=25,PI=25,LI=20,MA=18,South=3
===================================================
2020/05/21
China,2conf.+1susp.+31asympt.,1SH , why did all the recent cases in Jilin,Wuhan not appear here
Korea,+12+11122 ; India,58,52,55 ; Brazil,68,34,55,68,73 ; Mexico,
----------------------------------
Bergamo 61% seropositive by the end of April.  Healthcare workers only 23%.
-------------------------------------
Italy, 71679 tests, 642 positive , pr=0.8%
===========================================
2020/05/22
China,4+2+35,2JI ; Korea,+20=11142  ; India,53 ; Brazil,73
CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic,
Just 7.3% of Stockholm had Covid-19 antibodies by end of April
https://rt.live/
 rt.live, R[t] by US-State since apr03
Italy , 7380 tests, 652 positive , pr=15,19,14,13,11,12,11,12,12,9,8,8
=============================================
2020/05/23
China,0+2+28 ; Brazil,75,68,34,55,68,73,63 ; India,58,58,52,53,55,54,56
Italy, 72410 tests, 669 positive , pr=9
=============================================
2020/05/24
China,3+3+36,1JI ; Brazil,50 ; India,56
Italy, 55824 tests,531 positive , pr=9 , weekly :210,248,175,127,86,53,36,30,19,12,9
90
actual epidemic charts / Re: Heilongjiang reports , translation
« Last post by gsgs on May 24, 2020, 03:37:41 am »
Jilin :        吉林省

http://wsjkw.jl.gov.cn/



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