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1
genetics / release 240.0
« Last post by gsgs on November 03, 2020, 01:19:51 am »
2020/11/03 , genbank release 240 , Oct.15 is available

https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genbank/gbrel.txt

release 239 from Aug2020 had 39 virus files with 17491 MB and 3161686 sequences and 5824026918 Bases
   and 50462 coronavirus nucleotide sequences
release 240 from Oct2020 has 44 virus files with 18889 MB and 3223498 sequences and 6442230159 Bases
   and 68651 coronavirus nucleotide sequences 33844 of which are SARS2
2
genetics / Re: genbank 04/11
« Last post by gsgs on October 28, 2020, 10:19:00 pm »
2020/10/29 , 36846 sequences



----------------------------------------
    Charite has 544 German sequences now,
    36 from October , all with the D614G mutation
    https://civnb.info/sequences/

    the most frequent mutations from October are :

    36,C3037T,C241T,C14408T,A23403G
    14,G28883C,14,G28882A,14,G28881A

    10,G21255C
    9,T445C
    9,G29645T
    9,G25563T
    9,C6286T
    9,C28932T
    9,C22227T
    8,G27870T
    8,C6040T
    8,C27944T
    8,C26801T
    8,C21614T
    7,C28854T

    27 (10 from October) are the new Spanish strain "20A.EU1" from this paper :
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...063v1.full.pdf
    mutation picture : http://magictour.free.fr/sars2de5.GIF
   
3
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on October 18, 2020, 05:53:35 am »
links Oct18 :

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
Korea : http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
Italy : https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-regioni/dpc-covid19-ita-regioni.csv

Spain : https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_205_COVID-19.pdf
-Fri: https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Servicios/VigilanciaSaludPublicaRENAVE/EnfermedadesTransmisibles/Paginas/InformesCOVID-19.aspx
Madrid,Wed: https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/epid/informe_epidemiologico_semanal_covid.pdf
https://www.comunidad.madrid/sites/default/files/doc/sanidad/200907_cam_covid19.pdf
Aragon : https://transparencia.aragon.es/COVID19
https://www.aragon.es/documents/20127/38742837/casos_coronavirus_provincias.csv
Catalunya: https://analisi.transparenciacatalunya.cat/

France: https://www.data.gouv.fr/en/datasets/donnees-hospitalieres-relatives-a-lepidemie-de-covid-19/#_
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-relatives-aux-resultats-des-tests-virologiques-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/taux-dincidence-de-lepidemie-de-covid-19/#_

Germany : https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
India: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
UK, hosp.: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
ECDC subnational : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/subnational-14-day-notification-rate-covid-19
ECDC subnational weekly : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/weekly-subnational-14-day-notification-rate-covid-19
ECDC,hosp. : https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-data-hospital-and-icu-admission-rates-and-current-occupancy-covid-19
hospit.0828 : https://osf.io/43ucn/download
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
US: https://covidtracking.com/api  https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv
US, by County : https://usafactsstatic.blob.core.windows.net/public/data/covid-19/covid_confirmed_usafacts.csv
US: R[t] : https://d14wlfuexuxgcm.cloudfront.net/covid/rt.csv
US,deaths : https://data.cdc.gov/api/views/y5bj-9g5w/rows.csv?accessType=DOWNLOAD&bom=true&format=true%20target=
OxCGRT-Index : https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/raw/master/data/OxCGRT_latest.csv
F,deaths : https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4487988?sommaire=4487854

spain ; https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#ccaa
Belgium : https://t.co/8XtR9D5IKV?amp=1
Vienna : https://coronavirus.wien.gv.at/site/aktuelle-kennzahlen-aus-wien/
Argentina : https://www.argentina.gob.ar/salud/epidemiologia/boletines2020

NDR :  https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/
WDR : https://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/themen/coronavirus/ticker-corona-virus-nrw-100.html
Biden: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
CDS : http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/cds-historical-data/


-------------------------------------------------
charts :

world , daily cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/e-1017.GIF
European regions : http://magictour.free.fr/euw39.GIF
weekly : http://magictour.free.fr/wo_34a.GIF
4
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on October 18, 2020, 05:47:40 am »
========
2020/09/22
DEU,1821,10;ESP,31428,168; FRA,4209,?; BEL,2646,11;ITA,2937,32;GBR,4368,11;NLD,5948,8
ISR,4300,30;HUN,876,3;CZE,1190,19;AUT,632,1;ROM,808,23;UKR,2675,26;POL,748,5
Wien,205,1,4.16%, Aragon,pr=10.3; Madrid,11991*,24*
 past exposure to dengue may provide some immunity against COVID-19
=====================================================
2020/09/23,Wed
DEU,1769,13;ESP,10799,241;FRA,10008,78;BEL,1097,2;ITA,1391,14;GBR,4926,37;NLD,2245,10
ISR,2445,12; HUN,633,8;CZE,1566,9;AUT,662,4;ROM,1059,45;UKR,2884,59;POL,711,18
Wien,305,3,6.0,Aragon,pr=10.9,Madrid,3652,106
ehw38a.GIF, wo31c.GIF
in week 38, cases were increasing in 80 from 120 reporting Countries with >5M population  (it was 48 from 119 in week 37)
=============================================================
2020/09/24,Thu
DEU,2143,19;ESP,11289,778,130;FRA,13072,649,43;BEL,2931,7;ITA,1640,20;GBR,6178,37;NLD,4602,15
ISR,12306,42;HUN,951,8;CZE,3827,25;AUT,848,6;ROM,1767,47,UKR,3497,63;POL,974,28
Wien,pr=6.1;Aragon,pr=7.9;madrid,3730,147,4,32
According to a preprint, Tokyo reached 46% AB-Seroprevalence
to myself : I should update mobility charts
Austria : https://www.data.gv.at/covid-19/
https://osf.io/mpwjq/files/   https://osf.io/43ucn/download
Trump announced today he will overrule FDA in the vaccine if he disagrees with them
southern hemisphere skipped flu season in 2020
Euromomo week 38 : http://magictour.free.fr/eumo38.PNG
===================================================
2020/09/25,Fri
DEU,2153,15;ESP,10653,84;FRA,16096,613,53,BEL,1661,4;ITA,1786,23;GBR,6634,40;NLD,
ISR,7425,53;HUN,750,7;CZE,2910,12;AUT,686,6;ROM,1639,41;UKR,3372,52;POL,1136,25
Wien - delay;Aragon,8.33;Madrid,4350,64,2,29,
Cidrap :Falling COVID-19 viral loads may explain lower rates of ICU use, deaths
IHME predicts 378321 US-COVID-deaths by Jan01, they assume seasonality
in deaths from COVID
to myself : examine Belgium's lack of elderly infections in wave 2
create the out10.csv charts
mobility charts created (national only), mobility is generally high again,
no concern to travel in wave 2,
  no clear connection of waves and mobility pattern
Spanish government recommends locking down all of Madrid
=================================================
2020/09/26.Sat
DEU,2507,92,9;ESP,12272,840,114;FRA,15797,661,56(150);ITA,1912,20;
GBR,6873,34;BEL,1881,6;NLD,5321,32;POL,1587,23;CZE,1653,11;AUT,769,3;
ROM,1629,42;UKR,3565,70;HUN,927,9;ISR,3168,27
Wien,5.4;Aragon,861;Madrid,2941,183,10,23
===============================================
2020/09/27,Sun
DEU,1411,80,5;ESP,,;FRA,14412,475,39;ITA,1869,17;GBR,6041,35
BEL,2208,4;NLD,2713,38;POL,1584,32;CZE,3267,13;AUT,618,1;
ROM,1552,54;UKR,3833,6;HUN,950,12;ISR,11827,36;ARG,11249,335
Wien,Aragon,861;Madrid,4350,64,2,29
doctors threaten to go on strike in Spain, too much work
scientists go on strike in Belgium, politicians should not hide behind scientists
but give their own interviews (or such)
======================================
2020/09/28,Mon
DEU,1192,52,3;FRA,11123,229,27;ITA,1766,17;UK,5692,17;BEL,1827,5;NLD,2995,8
CZE,718,10;USA,37149,421
ISR,3926,25;ARG,8841,206
Vienna,11.3;Aragon,9.2;Madrid,2941,183,10,23
Vienna, weekly positive-rate from 6.02 down to 5.71  !
hospitalizations were increasing by 20%, though
with a total of 244 deaths so far in a city of 1.9M
Aragon's wave2 started early, they had a double-peak and it's also
declining now : 450 deaths in wave 2 so far. (930 in wave 1) pop.=1.3M
RKI-review of NPIs :https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Projekte_RKI/impact-control-measures-oecd.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
few elderly cases in wave 2 in Austria and Belgium : http://magictour.free.fr/aged1.GIF
====================================
2020/09/29,Tue
DEU,2089,41,11;SPA,31785,1297,179;FRA,4070,589,81;ITA,1494,16;UK,4044,13
ISR,2239,41;ARG,11807,364
Wien,6.6;Aragon,12.9;Madrid,13449,224,9,33(3d) {h-weekly:671,704,460,855}
DAX=12862,DOW=27564,Euro=1.167,bitcoin=9156,gold=1880,oil=42.85,VIX=31
============================================
2020/09/30,Wed
GER,1798,70,17; SPA,9906,900,203; FRA,8051,638,85; ITA,1647,24; UK,7143,71
ISR,3661,21 holiday; ARG,13477,406
Wien,4.5; Aragon,8.8; Madrid,18.3; Spain,10.9;Israel,15.0
=============================================
2020/10/01,Thu
GER,2503,89,12; SPA,11016,815,177; FRA,12845,617,63; ITA,1850,19; UK,7108,71
ISR,8568,41; ARG,14392,418
Wien,6.1; Aragon,8.8; Madrid,18.7;Spain,11.9;
Madrid quarantined (now as it goes down in Madrid : daily PR=
21.6,19.3,20.9,24.4,24.9,22.9,21.9, 22.2,21.7,23.2,20.9,21.9,19.5,18.3,18.7)
After months of debate, NL issues 'urgent advice' for masks in public spaces -
German chancellor : 19200 daily German cases by Xmas
=============================================
2020/10/02,Fri
GER,2673,121,8;SPA,9414,829,88,182; FRA,13970,603,63;ITA,2548,24;UK,6914,69
ISR,7996,53;ARG,14001,3351 ?!? (20288 total deaths)
Wien,Aragon,8.7; Madrid,18.0;Spain,09.3
R0 below 1 in France : https://covidtracker.fr/covidtracker-france/
Trump has COVID
DAX=12593,DOW=27373,Euro=1.1727,Gold=1906,oil=39.5,VIX=33.5
----------------------------------------------
recategorization of 3050 deaths from the Province of Buenos Aires
Argentina quarantine Mar20-Oct11
====================================================
2020/10/03,Sat
GER,2563,66,19;SPA,11325,762,59,113;FRA,12148,678,136,ITA,2499,23;UK,6968,66
ISR,7030,11;ARG,14687,311
Wien,9.6; Aragon,10.9,Madrid,18.4,Spain,9.5,DOW=27691
===========================================
2020/10/04,Sun,typically reduced weekend numbers
DEU,2279,78,2;SPA,FRA,16972,498,43;ITA,2843,27;UK,12871(sep24-Oct01),324,49
ISR,2577,25;ARG,11129,196
Wien,Aragon,10.9
==============================================
2020/10/05,Mon,typically reduced weekend numbers
GER,1382,42,5; FRA,12565,402,32; ITA,2668,18; UK,22961,422,33;
BEL,3389,7; NLD,AUT,716,4
ISR,1964,28; ARG,7868,223
Wien,10.6;Aragon,10.2 ; DAX=12739
Wien gives no weekly summary this time, is it because cases are going up again ?
6.02,5.71,5.92
NBC/WSJ poll finds Biden up 27 (!) among SENIORS.
bets are 61% for Biden :
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/the-betting-markets-are-showing-a-big-biden-win-but-awaiting-an-update-20201005
==================================================
2020/10/06,Tue
GER,2639,30,12;SPA,23480,1080,139;FRA,12565,698,32;ITA,2257,16; UK,35554*,422,52
ISR,4564,59;ARG,7668,223
Wien,6.5;Aragon,12.5,Madrid,17.6,Spain,10.0
DOW=28135,Biden=67%(oddschecker.com)Trump recovered
UK-casecounts are messy currently. Better take hospitalizations.
They redouble in 14 days (as in France).
Currently 3000 people in hospital, max was 20000 in April (France,5000,30000)
Currently  3550 weekly admitted to hospital, max was  22000 in April  (France,4200,24000)
------
SARS2, survives on human skin for 9 hours
===================================================
2020/10/07,Wed
GER,2828,93,16; SPA,11078.883.141; FRA,10489,783,66; ITA,2677,28; UK,14538,496,76
ISR,4717,40; ARG,14740,359
Wien,6.9; Aragon,11.2;Madrid,18.9;Spain,10.6 (positive rates)
DOW=27798,Biden=67%
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
Brussels closes all bars,cafes,restaurants
================================================
2020/10/08,Thu
GER,4058,121,16; SPA,10491,634,76; FRA,18746,765,80; ITA,3678,31; UK,14162,508,70
ISR,4455,27; ARG,16447,399;
Wien,7.4,Aragon,11.4,Madrid,21.3,Spain,10.8
DOW=28316,Biden=64.3
、野生动物病毒库、
======================================
2020/10/09,Fri
GER,4516,111,11;SPA,12423,988,126; FRA,18129,685,76;ITA,4458,22;UK,17540,609,77
ISR,3224,40; ARG,16447,399
Wien,9.8,Aragon,13.3,Madrid,14.9,Spain,9.4
DOW=28429,Biden=64.5
==========================================
2020/10/10,Sat
GER,4721,127,15;SPA,12788,913,261;FRA,20339,820,109; ITA,5372,28;UK,13864,87
ISR,2522,22; ARG,15099,515
Wien,8.5,Aragon,13.0;Madrid,15.8;Spain,9.8
DOW=28585,Biden=64.4
Van Kerkhove : mortality rate is down because of health systems,
"we are doing better" ... treating patients
{but hospitalisations are also down)
======================================\
2020/10/11,Sun
GER,3483,109,11;SPA;FRA,26896,665,101;ITA,5724,29;UK,15165,684,81
ISR,2017,55;ARG,12414,356;NLD,6499,23;BEL,5385,25;DNK,489
Wien,7.5--weekly:5.71,5.92,7.85;Aragon,14.3
heading towards 1 confirmed daily case ber 1000 population and
"herd immunity" with 10%-20% infected everywhere.
I would be surprised if NE-USA were spared
China,Korea - maybe. India,Brazil,Mexico may get another wave in Feb
Mortality and hospitalisations are low currently, they don't know why.
Will it rise again in late winter as we saw in March ?
Canada-study : masks reduce infections "up to" 30%
Low zinc levels at admission = poor outcomes
8 from 233 positives were  hospitalized =3.4%..,
43% of positives had symptoms after 30d, 24% after 90d
14% of very mild cases had symptoms after 30d
===========================================
2020/10/12,Mon
GER,2467,70,6;SPA,FRA,16101,482(t8231),46;ITA,5456,26;UK,12872,641(t3837),65
ISR,694,56;ARG,10324,135(t28298)287;DNK,927,2
Wien,10.8; Aragon,16.1; Argentina,72.5; Biden=67.6; Dow,28630
===================================================
2020/10/13,Tue
GER,4122,33,13;SPA,27856,1466,195;FRA,8505,962,141;ITA,4619,39;UK,13972,651,50
Israel,3538,41;Argentina,9524,318;
BEL,5327,16;NLD,6845,12;CZE,5001,69;HUN,1173,14;POL,4494,45;DNK,684,6
Biden=66.8,Dow=28835
Wien,2.8(whom did they test),Aragon,15.3,Spain,12.0,Madrid,18.6
------------------------------------
pop. in M : Vienna=1.9,CZE=10.7,HUN=9.7,ROM=19.2,ISR=8.7,UKR=4 3.7,SPA=46.8,BEL=11.6,
NLD=17.2,DEU=82.3,FRA=65.3,GBR=68.0,ITA=60.4,AUT=9 .0,
Vienna=1.9,Aragon=1.3,Madrid=6.5,Cataluna=7.5
ISR=8.6,ARG=45.3,POL=37.8,DNK,5.8
---------------------------------
estimated cost of COVID in US: $16T
=============================================
2020/10/14,Wed
GER,5132,102,43;SPA,7118,358,80;FRA,12993,1139,163;ITA,5898,41;UK,17232,655,143
ISR,2621,34;ARG,13305,386
BEL,3622,20;NLD,7378,35;CZE,6321,52;CHE,1445,7;DNK,489,3
Wien,7.3,Aragon,18.4,Spain,11.0,Madrid,18.4
Dow=28690,Biden=66.0,US-CDS=15.5
--------------------------
Spain deaths are plateauing at 120/day
with Madrid lockdown while Aragon gets its 3rd wave
after Catalunya stayed stable at moderate level for 11(!) weeks,
they got an 50% increase now last week
--------------------------
Latest positive rates in Europe:
UKR,17.2,POL,12.3,SPA,10.0,FRA,7.5,ITA,6.3,UK,5.9,RUS,2.8,GER,1.4
NL, bars restaurants closed no alcohol >20:00 , 3 private guests per day,
buses trains only if really necessary. Mask-rules (so far they had none).
-------------------------------
deaths in France are not increasing the last weeks ?! (but hospitalisations and
hospital deaths are increasing weekly: 190,356,351,384,503)
================================================
2020/10/15,Thu
GER,6638,128,33; SPA,11970,991,189; FRA,22591,1116,95,ITA,7332,43; UK,19724,680,137
ISR,1848,43,ARG,DNK,492,1; CZE,9543,66;NLD,7287,32;ROM,4016,66;BEL,8271,34
Wien,8.7,Aragon,13.2,Spain,11.8,Madrid,14.9
Dow=28240,Biden=65.5,US-CDS=16.1
Czech builds emergency field hospitals
===========================================
2020/10/16,Fri
GER,7334,136,24;SPA,13318,1052,140;FRA,30621,-,88;ITA,8803,83;UK,18978,792,138
ISR,1002,11;DNK,490,2;CZE,9720,58;NLD,7791,29;BEL,10448,49;ROM,4013,73
Dow=28494,Biden=65.1,gold=1913,US-CDS=16.0,USA national debt=$24T
Wien,4.9%,Aragon,17.1,Madrid,15.0,Spain,12.5
Argentina,pop=45.3M , @BNODesk , 2h ago (02:30 UTC)
cases=949063(+17096),hosp.=28987(+180),
ICU=4278(+38),deaths=25342(+421),pr=61.8%;
Belgium,pop=11.6M,10448,1949+172,327+14,49,pr=12.7
NLD,pop=19.2M,7997,1553+27,345+32,18
Health workers in France go on strike
===============================================
2020/10/17,Sat
GER,7830,111,33;SPA,15186,838,222;FRA,25086,1202,178;ITA,10009,55;UK,15635,844,136
ISR,2394,32 lockdown continued;ARG,16546,60.4%,368,68,381
CZE,11105,pr=29%,3120+200,551+8,1283+53
DNK,418,0;BEL,10448,49;NLD,7984,16;ROM,4026,75
Dow=28606,Biden=63.5,gold=1906,US-CDS=16.2
Wien,14.7,Aragon,20.1,Spa,11.7,Mad,14.7,Cat,15.6
the 2nd wave peaked in fall already in [DNK,MDA,EST,MNE ? , fill in]
Manaos,66% infected, 0.2% died
==================================================
2020/10/18,Sun
GER,5587,141,10;FRA,32427,964,89;ITA,10925,47;UK,16171,987,150
ISR,874,49;ARG,BEL,10192,32;NLD,8141,28;CZE,14152,80;
ROM,3952,63;CHE,POL,9622,84;
Wien,Aragon,17.0
Dow=28419,Biden=62.3,gold=1903,US-CDS=16.2

5
genetics / Re: genbank 04/11
« Last post by gsgs on September 28, 2020, 09:52:42 pm »
2020/09/28

24923 COVID-19 sequences at genbank (was 16438 on 2020/08/18), file sars2-19
24185 complete ones (>29400 nucleotides)
22,208,199,355,6040,5033,2561,2869,4494,639,219 with collection months 2019/12,...,2020/09
USA:14091,AUS:5562,IND:570,EGY:233,BGD:231,THA:227,CHN:195,IRN:101,GRC:98,GER:92,
PER:89,FRA:89,JPN:84,IRQ:76,MEX:66,ITA:60,SAU:58,TUR:57,SPA:48,GHA:46
USA:WA=3455,CA=1953,FL=1520,WI=1340,VA=903,MA=876,MI=493,NY=318
human:22574,mink:13,mink:12,5:cat,2:dog,tiger:1
onp:6269,saliva:54,swab:310,saliva/onp:54,lung/oronasopharynx:49,lung:28,blood:3,feces:4,
1:onp/onp,1:placenta,1:urine
6
nCoV - discussion / Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Last post by gsgs on September 22, 2020, 08:01:58 pm »
Sep23 , IHME deaths forecast for Jan01 :
USA=378321,CHN=6915,AUS=950,IDN=22346,AUT=4236,BEL=13488,CRO=2878,CZE=8080,
FRA=88528,GER=22664,ITA=67687,RUS=98182,SRB=771,SPA=65921,SWE=9813,UK=93429
BRA=170072,MEX=139894,ISR=7153,CAN=17511,NY=43857,IND=625165,

Sep23,covidtracker deaths forecast for Nov01 :
USA=222951,NY=33425,CAN=9777,AUT=883,BEL=10240,CRO=356,CZE=931,FRA=34991,
GER=9667,ITA=36812,SPA=37969,SWE=5957,UK=43826
AUS=981,BRA=159314,CHN=4790,IND=135730,IDN=14641,ISR=2095,MEX=88524,
RUS=24337,



---------------------
France currently has  31416 total deaths and 50 per day
it currently redoubles every 14 days
31416+75*14+150*14+300*10=37566  by Nov01
===> deaths by Nov01
7
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on September 21, 2020, 05:24:30 am »
====================================================
2020/08/24
China,16+1+27 ; Korea,258 ; Germany,711,3,R=1.08,1.07
===================================================
2020/08/25
China,14+0+16 ; Korea,264   ; Germany,1278,5,R=0.98,0.97
COVID-charts, Aug25 :
http://magictour.free.fr/e-0825.GIF
NL,BEL, (GBR,LUX,EST,LVA,FIN,HUN,DEU )
to bend the 2nd wave ?
peakedin KEN,MEX,KAZ,PAN,CUB
==============================================
2020/08/26
China,15+0+14 ; Korea,307 ; Germany,1576,3,R=0.90,0.92
=============================================
2020/08/27
China,8+1+19 ; Korea,434 ; Germany,1507,5,R-0.85,0.93
Korea,Aug16,12676,1616,164,6882,325,193,148,37,45,1437, 57,64,172,18,18,1375,114,11
Korea,Aug26,15936,3006,233,6931,559,288,213,49,54,2387,156,87,256,57,82,1408,151,19
==================================================
2020/08/28
China,9+2+16 ; Korea,359 ; Germany,1571,3,R=0.83,0.94
RKI expects vaccine until early 2021, but not for the whole population
>6111 new cases in France, masks obligatory in whole Paris now
===================================================
2020/08/29
China,9+0+10 ; Korea,308 ; Germany,1479,1,R=0.94,1.01 ; France=267077 ; Spain=439286
Spain 10000, France 7400, Hungary closes borders for vacationers
Daegu and Gyeongbuk are spared in this "wave". Just as NYC, Lombardy
(but not Paris,Madrid)
Spain: https://www.rtve.es/noticias/coronavirus-graficos-mapas-datos-covid-19-espana-mundo/
President Macron rules out new general lockdown in France. August 20, 2020.
Macron said a second national lockdown could not be ruled out if infections spiralled
out of control , August 28
Kekulé fordert Einsatz von Corona-Schnelltests in Deutschland
 bis zum nächsten Sommer flächendeckend Impfstoffe anbieten
 Malu Dreyer: Keine Panik, Infektionen unter Kontrolle
# how that reminds me to all the other countries who could not contain it
# Czech : "no 2nd wave" , then Greece,Croatia,Austria,Hungary and now _very_
# much in Spain,France
=======================================================
2020/08/30
China,9+0+4 ; Korea,283 ; Germany,785,6,R=1.04,1.01, Spain=, France=272530+5453
=======================================================
2020/08/31
China,17+0+19;Korea,238;Germany,610,3,R=1.04,0.95;Spain=;France=277943+5413{weekend}
cumulative American infections ~14.3%
========================================================
2020/09/01
China,10+0+34  ; Korea,222 ; Germany,1218,4,R=0.94,0.88 ;
Spain=462858+23572(including weekend);France=281025+3082
 31-08-2020 15:29 Spanish Health minister rules out another nationwide lockdown
seroprevalence in Mumbay : 58% in slums, 17% in nonslums
=========================================================
2020/09/02
China,8+0+19 ; Korea,253 ; Germany,1256,11,R=0.84,0.89 ;
France=286007+4982 ; Spain=470973+8115 ; I+975 ; UK+1295 ; B+637,NL+2009
 humoral response did not decline within 4 months after infection in Iceland
===========================================================
2020/09/03
China,11+0+12 ; Korea,188
Germany,1311,8,R=0.80,0.91,weekly positiverate=79,61,59,65,79,98,100,97,85,74
FRA+7017,25;SPA+8581,42;ITA+2301,GBR+1508,BEL+445,NLD+2732,POL+595
Aragon,274,31,5
=========================================================
2020/09/04
China,25+0+26 ; Korea,189 ;Europe, 38749,511
Germany,1432,7,R=0.77,0.91
FRA,+7157,20;Spain,+8959,40;ITA,1397,10;GBR,1735;BEL,+424,1;NLD,601,POL,612,14
Aragon,229,31,14
===========================================================
2020/09/05
China,10+0+8 ; Korea,158 ; Europe,30728,282
DEU,1378,2 ; Spain,10476,184;ITA,1732,11;GBR,1940,23;
FRA+8075,18 ; BEL,633,1 ; NLD,744,2 ; POL,691,8
Aragon,1952,bing  Aragon,354,11.3%,399 transparencia ; Aragon,241,36,5 datafile
Madrid,71223+79,42325,8416+0  136901+1462,8728 rtve
=============================================================
2020/09/06
China,10+2+17 ; Korea,152 ; Europe,28743,356
DEU,988,1 ; SPA,ITA,1694,16 ; GBR,1813,12 ;
FRA,+8550,;BEL,630,2 ; NLD,654,0 ; POL,567,13
Aragon,
Madrid,
France,daily positives and tests by department,agegroup, May15-Sep03
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/406c6a23-e283-4300-9484-54e78c8ae675
France,in hospital with COVID,Mar18-Sep05,by agegroup,department:
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-hospitalieres-relatives-a-lepidemie-de-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/donnees-relatives-aux-resultats-des-tests-virologiques-covid-19/
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/taux-dincidence-de-lepidemie-de-covid-19/
==========================================================
2020/09/07
China,13+0+17 ; Korea,108 ; Europe,53445,269
DEU,814,0 ; SPA,ITA,1296,8 ; GBR,2988,2 ;
FRA,+7071,;BEL,1281,7 ; NLD,1579,6 ; POL,437,7
@IHME_UW "Deaths {in USA} could be reduced by 30% with masks but mask-wearing is declining"
=========================================================
2020/09/08
China,10+0+13 ; Korea, ; Europe,34940,399
DEU,1499,4,R=1.12,0.95; SPA,26560,98 {3days,weekend}; ITA,1150,11 ; GBR,2948,3
FRA,4203,25 ; BEL,542,1 ; NLD,797,? ; POL,302,4
================================================================
2020/09/09
China,2+5+8 ; Korea,144 ; Europe,39032,472
DEU,1176,9,R=1.10,0.98; SPA,8964,78 ; FRA,6544,38 ; BEL,402,2;NLD,964,1;POL,400,12
Spain will have 3M doses of vaccine in December, says health-minister
================================================================
2020/09/10
China,7+0+15; Korea,141 ; Europe,38642,266  Russia is missing
DEU,1892,3; SPA,8866,34; FRA,8577,30; BEL,372,3; ITA,1430,14; GBR,2659,8; NLD,1140,2; POL,421,11; HUN,887,4; CZE,1159,3;HRV,291,2;AUT,567,1; ROM,BUL,122,10,Europe,5099,122
Europe,weekly cases:170133,199025,220390,251958
http://magictour.free.fr/e-0909.GIF
http://magictour.free.fr/continen.GIF
seems that it's worse in winter, Europe vs. Australia >3 times more deaths. Vitamin D ?
===============================================================
2020/09/11
China,15+0+22; Korea,136 ; Europe,50227,595  Russia,Ukraine reporting unusually many deaths
DEU,1484,1; SPA,10764,61; FRA,9843,19; BEL,550,5; ITA,3027,24; GBR,2919,14; NLD,823,3
POL,506,17; HUN,718,1; CZE,1377,4; HRV,190,3; AUT,799,2; ROM,1380,47; BUL,163,4
Good news: virtual elimination of a flu season in the southern hemisphere for 2020
60% of hospitalised Covid get neuro-symptoms
Social Distancing, even outdoors reduced risk by 90%
Trump approval-rating : 531-427 worst was 561-405 on July01 best was 497-458 on Apr01
DAX=13196,DOW=27647,Euro=1184,Bitcoin=8683,gold=1944,oil=3965
Israel lockdown
============================================================
2020/09/12
China,6+1+8; Korea,118
DEU,1630,5;SPA,12183,48;FRA,9406,80; BEL,877,?; ITA,1616,180;GBR,3539,6;NLD,1270,3
ISR,5515,22;POL,594,10;HUN,CZE,1447,7;CRO,AUT,947,2;ROM,1391,35;BUL,163,4;GRE,372,4
CDC-study, bars/cafes/restaurants are risky
Trump and his appointees edited out CDC’s COVID danger warnings {in MMWR-weekly}
because they “conflicted with the presidents more optimistic message”
=============================================================
2020/09/13
China,10+0+70 ; Korea,99
DEU,948+2;SPA,FRA,10561,17;BEL,969,2;ITA,1601,?; GBR,3497,9;NLD,1231,1
ISR,4158,13;HUN,1634,3;CZE,1541,3; AUT,397,4;Romania,1311,27
Oxford vaccine trial is back on. Details of the suspected adverse event will
 not be disclosed for confidentiality reasons but independent scrutiny has
 concluded it’s safe
Österreichs Bundeskanzler Kurz sieht Österreich am Beginn der zweiten Corona-Welle.
==========================================================
2020/09/14
China,10+3+39; Korea,98
DEU,921,1:SPA,FRA,7183,6; BEL,1918.6; ITA,1456,7;GBR,3330,5; NLD,1087,1
ISR,4071,18;HUN,484,4;CZE,787,3; AUT,440,2;ROM,1109,36
Indien erwägt Notfallgenehmigung für Impfstoff
====================================================
2020/09/15,Tue
China,8+0+9; Korea,91
DEU,1407,12; SPA,27404,101;FRA,6158,34;BEL,977,2; ITA,1008,14;GBR,2621,9;NLD,1300,2
ISR,4764,17;HUN,844,5;CZE,1034,9; AUT,752,1;ROM,692,22;UKR,2462,33;POL,377,15
IND,81911,1054;IDN,3141,118;BRA,19089,454
BR24 ticker : https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/coronavirus-ticker-alle-news-vom-14-bis-20-september,SATqWOz/
peak in France's positive0rate age 0-39 ; >40 still up
====================================================
2020/09/16,Wed
China,12+0+16; Korea,105
DEU,1901,6; SPA,9437,156; FRA,7852,49; BEL,851,2; ITA,1229,9; GBR,3103,27; NLD,1379,2
ISR,4034,11; HUN,726,4; CZE,1674,11; AUT,772,?; ROM,1111,51; UKR,2905,53; POL,605,24
DAX=13212,DOW=28000,EUR=1.185,bitcoin=9069,gold=1953,oil=40.6
Wien,(pop=1.9M),400,0 ;
pop. in M : Vienna=1.9,CZE=10.7,HUN=9.7,ROM=19.2,ISR=8.7,UKR=43.7,SPA=46.8,BEL=11.6,
NLD=17.2,DEU=82.3,FRA=65.3,GBR=68.0,ITA=60.4,AUT=9.0,
Vienna=1.9,Aragon=1.3,Madrid=6.5,Cataluna=7.5
NYC lockdown reduced spread by 70%
BNT-chair says, that Germany can expect multiple vaccines & full vaccine coverage by mid-2021
=====================================================
2020/09/17,Thu
DEU,2194,3; SPA,11193,239; FRA,9784,46; BEL,489,3; ITA,1452,12; GBR,3991,20; NLD,1542,2
ISR,6063,18; HUN,581,8; CZE,2136,6 ; AUT,858,1; ROM,1713,49; UKR,2958,76; POL,600,10
Vienna,320,0;Aragon,298,;Madrid,3438,137,2,30
Spaetfolgen in 50% of severe patients
German vaccine approvement not before early 2021
===========================================================
2020/09/18
DEU,1916,7;SPA,11291,162; FRA,10593,50; BEL,1153,5; ITA,1583,13; GBR,3395,21; NLD,1763,6
ISR,8461,17; HUN,710,9; CZE,3123,7; AUT,824,0; ROM,1679,27; UKR,3584,244; POL,837,16
Wien,366,0;Aragon,330,8;Madrid,3841,?,?,15
==========================================================
2020/09/19
DEU,2297,6;SPA,14389,90; FRA,13215,154; BEL,2028,1; ITA,1907,10; GBR,4322,27; NLD,1974,7
ISR,3815,27; HUN,1651,15; CZE,2107,6; AUT,967,5; ROM,1527,48; UKR,3228,-;POL,757,17
Wien,340,2; Aragon,98,7; Madrid,5086,101,6,29
850000 in Madrid confined to their borroughs
==============================================================
2020/09/20,Sun
DEU,1345,2; SPA,FRA,13498,25; BEL,3701,2; ITA,3544,34; GBR,4422,27; NLD,1974,7
ISR,6916,35; HUN,809,6; CZE,2057,5; AUT,641,2; ROM,1333,42; UKR,3240,?; POL,1002,12
Wien,431,0;
Aragon,pr=10.6%(12.9,14.4,16.7,10.7,10.5,10.2,11.0,10.6;max was _20.0 early Aug
peak in Austria ??? http://magictour.free.fr/aut9a.GIF
3*? = very speculative,uncertain, but worth to watch.
Remember, they were also early to peak in wave1
==========================================================
2020/09/21,Mon
DEU,922,0;SPA-,-;FRA,11569,311; BEL,2772,8; ITA,3224,39; GBR,3899,18; NLD,1844,4
ISR,5916,41; HUN,1070,8; CZE,1596,3; AUT,561,1; ROM,1231,33; UKR,2966,41; POL,910,11
Wien,321,3; Aragon,pr=10.4;Madrid,2256,16
http://magictour.free.fr/fr0920.GIF
Vojtech withdraws

9
General Discussion / this board - info/help/changes/organisation
« Last post by gsgs on September 12, 2020, 10:16:30 pm »

how to make members mods,admins
admin
permissions
click the number in the Members column
to add more members to that group

10
nCoV - discussion / Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Last post by gsgs on September 04, 2020, 02:40:48 am »
https://twitter.com/AliHMokdad/status/1301671920916525056

IHME on Sep04 predicts 410000 deaths for USA until Jan01

covid-projections gives 220300 until Nov01, 16000 per month (-->260000 until Jan01)
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