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91
nCoV - discussion / Re: Apr07 model UofWA
« Last post by gsgs on May 20, 2020, 04:54:05 am »
another forecaster :

https://covid19-projections.com/

2020/05/20
USA:195077 deaths by Aug04 , 143357
Sweden : 7331 , 5760
UK: 50070 , 43479
Germany: 10836
Ukraine:7842 , 1269
Belgium: 10388
Poland: 2475 , 1990
Brazil: 136958 , 88305
China: 4642
India: 42361
Indonesia: 2572
Iran: 13296
Mexico: 67887 , 6859
Nigeria: 681
Russia: 16758
Bangladesh: 3370

Europe: 217562
World: 776423

Jun01,
US=192098,S=7028,UK=47696,DE=10399,UKR=3378,B=10196,POL=2133,BRA=139005,
CHN=4648,IND=55797,IDN=5654,Iran=11985,MEX=97096,NIG=1543,Russia=23727,BGD=6065
CA=12938,GA=6080,IL=10499,MO=2743,NY=33017,OH=6560,PA=9492,TX=5563

Jun17,(by Oct01)
US=189793,S=6314,UK=49276,DE=10481,UKR=3600,B=10078,POL=3294,BRA=121826,
CHN=4648,IND=358926,IDN=9179,IRN=16640,MEX=84651,NIG=2654,RUS=22371,BGD=10994
CA=16484,GA=5869,IL=11777,MO=1692,NY=32952,OH=5212,PA=9382,TX=4511

India projected at 360000 deaths now ! It was 56000 on Jun01, I wonder what changed

Jun29,(by Oct01)
US=180095,S=6325,UK=48877,DE=10535,UKR=3309,B=10022,POL=3017,MDA=1502,BRA=133726
CHN=4649,IND=100789,IDN=8233,IRN=19750,MEX=98421,NIG=1867,RUS=19092,BGD=8633
CA=14430,GA=5941,IL=10368,MO=1759,NY=33439,OH=5038,PA=9343,TX=7006

India back to 100000
92
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on May 17, 2020, 08:19:35 pm »
copies of these posts  readable also by non-members are here :
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ncov-discussion/updates/msg169/#msg169

2020/05/11  [one new post per week now, starting on Monday)
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_74_COVID-19.pdf
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
F: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/b4ea7b4b-b7d1-4885-a099-71852291ff20
US: https://covidtracking.com/api
ESP: https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/resources/agregados.csv
-------------------------------------------------
mobility : http://magictour.free.fr/mobil2.GIF
world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0510.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0515.GIF
France deaths by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
France cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ft-0505.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0509.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0502.GIF
Germany derivative (follows R[t]) : http://magictour.free.fr/de-dv1.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
============================================
2020/05/11
China,17+9+12,5Hubei,3JL,1LI,1HL , South Korea,35
Russia,55;India,67;Brazil,43,USA,16,Indonesia,28;Nigeria,61

================================================
2020/05/12
China,1+1+15,1IM ; SKor,27cases ;  India,54 ; Russia,56 ; Indonesia,17
Brazil,34 ; USA,16 ; Mexico,37 ; Canada,17 ; Nigeria,55 ; Pak,54(7) ; BD,64(7)
warm weather seems to help
Italy, 107743 tests ! , 2143 positive ; 30,32,19,22,19,20,15,15,19
==================================================
2020/05/13
China,7+1+8 ; 6Jilin ,SKorea ,+26=10962
India,54;USA,13;Indonesia,34;Pakistan,56;Brazil,34;Nigeria,53;Bangladesh,71;Russia,49;Mexico,55
dax=10621,dow=23707,euro=108.4,gold=1701,oil=29.2,bitcoin=8204
novavax=34.6 , moderna=56.4 , inovio=11.4
list of data sources : https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.06111.pdf
earlier school closure in US-States is related to fewer deaths per capita and
slower growth in deaths per capita.
Higher Air Temperature, Pressure, and Ultraviolet Are Associated with Less Covid-19 Incidence
R[t] by US-State : https://covid19-realtimereproductionnumber.shinyapps.io/ShinyAPP/
Italy 61973 tests, 888 positive ;30,32,19,22,19,20,15,15,19,14
Italy tests contacts (regardless of symptoms)
4.4% with antibodies in Francce
5% with antibodies in Spain, 11% in Madrid
=========================================
2020/05/14
China,3+0+12,2LI,1JI ; SKor,+26=10962 ;  India,50(60) ; Russia,43(56) ; Indonesia,47(32)
Brazil,60(61) ; USA,16(19) ; Mexico,49(55) ; Canada,17(20) ; Nigeria,55(81) ;
Pak,51(58) ; BD,70(62)
normal (loud) speaking
 https://covid19.gleamproject.org/mobility
by US-County : https://comphealth.ucsf.edu/app/buttelabcovid
euromomo not yet updated
dax=10383,dow=23228,oil=30.3, VIX=35
Italy 71876 tests , 992 positive , ;30,32,19,22,19,20,15,15,19,14,13 (N=16,S=4)
===================================
2020/05/15
China,4+1+11,4JI ; Korea,+29=10991 ;
India,50 ; Nigeria,37 ; Brazil,60 ; USA,15 ; Russia,41 ; Pakistan,42 ; Bangladesh,58
Mexico,60 ; Indonesia,34 ;
euromomo week 19 : https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
http://magictour.free.fr/eumo19.GIF
insee-update , 25000 excess deaths in France
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/4487988?sommaire=4487854
Italy 68176 tests , 789 positive ,
daily : 20,15,15,19,14,13,11 , weekly : 210,248,175,127,86,53,36,30,19,(12)
=============================================
2020/05/16
China, 8+2+13,2JI ; South Korea , +19=11037
Over 25% of the UK likely to have had COVID-19 already' http://dlvr.it/RWkngV
IHME,May12,USA=147040,UK=43479,S=5769,I=35137,F=31155,D=9905,B=10594,Ire=1736
Brazil=88305,Canada=9945,Mexico=6859,Peru=6428,Turkey=5263
NY=34068,IL=7830,PA=12420,CA=5832,OH=2844
Italy, 69179 tests, 875  positive , 20,15,15,19,14,13,11 ,12
=============================================
2020/05/17
China,5+3+12,3JI ; South Korea,+13=11050
India,48(54) ; USA,18(17) ; Indonesia,42(33) ; Pakistan,43(44)
Brazil,69(59) ; Nigeria,39(56) ; Bangladesh,46(62) ; Russia,35(46) ; Mexico,47(50)
Europe,weekly,(13,17,19,24,32,worldometer)   ;
World-,weekly(--,23,25,31,38,54,81,112,108,64=mar02-mar08,ECDC)
Europe,weekly(--,17,18,23,30,44,70,120,178,241=mar02-mar08,ECDC)
Italy, 60101 test, 675 positive, pr=11
93
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on May 17, 2020, 08:12:31 pm »
copies of these posts  readable also by non-members are here :
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ncov-discussion/updates/msg169/#msg169

2020/05/04  [one new post per week now, starting on Monday)
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
F: https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/b4ea7b4b-b7d1-4885-a099-71852291ff20
US: https://covidtracking.com/api

China,Apr17,27+5+54 ; 7HL,2GD,1SI
China,Apr24,12+3+29 , 1HL,1BJ
China,May01,1+2+20
China,May02,2+0+12, 1SX
China,May03,3+1+13

world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0510.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0502.GIF
France deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
charts for US-States : http://magictour.free.fr/uss0509.GIF
Germany 412 Landkreise : http://magictour.free.fr/lk-0502.GIF
oxcgrt-index : http://magictour.free.fr/oxc2.GIF
------------------------------------------------
2020/05/04
China,3+1+13;Japan,28,17;SGP,37,73;India,6.6%;Indonesia,3.2%
Russia,8.6%;Mexico,6.0%;Brazil,4.7;Ecuador,7.5%;USA,2.8% 
 [{week before},daily increase in promille]
~10% of workers in Wuhan had antibodies in Apr
Regeneron’s sarilumab
14% on famotidine died , 27% others
19% risk to infect household members in Wuhan
Early detection of superspreaders by mass group pool testing can mitigate COVID-19 pandemic
 top 10% spreaders (100+ higher viral loading than median infector) transmit 45% of new cases.
wastewater viral RNA anticipated declared cases
air-pollution increased COVID-risk in Lombardy
Italy 37621 tests, 1221 positive , 27,26,34,30,32
===================================================
2020/05/05
China,1+0+15, Russia,+7.9%;India,+6.4%;Brazil,+4.0%,USA,+2.3%
French case from Dec27
social distancing policies reduced the spread of COVID19 by 66%
Italy, 55263 tests,1075 positive, 27,26,34,30,32,19
deaths per million population weekly,21,57,84,81,64,60,50,31
======================================================
2020/05/06
China,2+3+20, Russia,+7.0%;India,+9.0%;Brazil,+6.5%,USA,+1.8%
Vitamin D to protect against covid
( mild) enteric symptoms may be marker for severity
09:00-UTC,dax-10712,dow=24023,euro=10526,gold=17000,oil=31.7
Italy, 64263 tests , 1444 positive ,  27,26,34,30,32,19,22
==========================================================
2020/05/07
China,2+2+6, Russia,68;India,57;Brazil,91,USA,19
81-deletion in AZ ASU2923 : https://jvi.asm.org/content/jvi/early/2020/04/30/JVI.00711-20.full.pdf
Italy,70359 tests, 1401 positives , 26,34,30,32,19,22,19
=======================================================
2020/05/08
China,1+3+16,Jilin; Russia,68(11);India,72(1),Brazil,79(43);USA,21(232);Indonesia,28(3)
{% increase and (deaths per million) - from wikipedia - I think they should show curves
of daily new cases instead of these bars and cumulative curves}
IHME deaths predictions:
Apr17,USA=68841,UK=66314,S=04182,I=20333,F=15058,D=7080,B=4291,Ire=0527,NY=13307
Apr22,USA=67641,UK=31929,S=10584,I=26867,F=23304,D=6124,B=8128,Ire=1030,NY=24000
Apr29,USA=72860,UK=31476,S=15625,I=27544,F=24918,D=6946,B=7708,Ire=1404,NY=24314
May06,USA=134475,UK=40555,S=10196,I=31458,F=28859,D=8543,B=9464,Ire=1698,NY=32132
in theory Brazil has timeseries for COVID and social distancing in many cities,
but I couldn't find it
smoking reduces COVID
spreaders-->environment ; "sit and wait" strategy  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.20090092v1.full.pdf
Italy, 63775 tests,1327 positive ,34,30,32,19,22,19,20 (N:25,S:8)
================================================
2020/05/09
China,1+2+15,Jilin; Russia,60(11);India,64(1),Brazil,44(43);USA,21(232);Indonesia,26(3)
Italy,69171 tests, 1083 postive , 34,30,32,19,22,19,20,15 (N:18,S:7)
===================================================
2020/05/10
China,14+1+20,11Jilin,1Hubei; South Korea,10840(5)
Russia,58(13);India,59(2),Brazil,73(50);USA,22(242);Indonesia,41(4)
France,mar10-may05,tests,positives *3sex*6age [much more female tests ?!?]
https://www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/r/b4ea7b4b-b7d1-4885-a099-71852291ff20
-----------------------------------------------
timing of measures and case-trends do not match well. (~10 days delay in average)
dozends of papers calculating the "effect" of measures, ignoring this mismatch.
Would it have gone down without measures anyway ? (People more careful when the wave starts)
Germany: 05-14 increases first . 15-59 are "driving" the wave, males first . Clear delay in 80+
http://magictour.free.fr/de-ageb.GIF
-------------------------------------------
study on 30euro-countries for 7 IHME-defined measures
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.01.20088260v1.full.pdf
lookdown,closing business = useless
school closure, no mass-gathering = works
----------------------------------------------
Italy, 51678 tests, 802 positive , 34,30,32,19,22,19,20,15,15
94
genetics / Re: genbank 04/11
« Last post by gsgs on May 14, 2020, 10:28:23 pm »
2020/05/15 , 3812 genomes , 3415 of these are easily aligned  (no insertions or deletions) , full size

2049 (=60%) of these have C241T
2088 have C3037T
2114 have C14408T
2113 have A24403G
------------------------------

1434 have G25563T
1234 have C1059T

2126 from USA
81 from France
69 from China
809 from Australia:Victoria
91 from Greece:Athens
38 from India:Ahmedabad
23 from Thailand
21 from Taiwan
20 from HongKong
18 from India
12 from PuertoRico

(German and UK sequences see above )


why so many C-->T
95
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on May 03, 2020, 09:13:29 pm »
copies of these posts  readable also by non-members are here :
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ncov-discussion/updates/msg169/#msg169

2020/04/27  [one new post per week now, starting on Monday)
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-daily-covid-deaths-per-million
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati


China,Apr17,27+5+54 ; 7HL,2GD,1SI
China,Apr18,16+2+44 ; 6HL,1GD
China,Apr19,12+2+49 ; 3HL,1IM    [Zhong Nanshang talking about introduction from Russia]
China,Apr20,11+3+37 , 6HL,1GD   [speculation about a new wave in Harbin]
China,Apr21,30+3+42 , 7HL           http://wsjkw.hlj.gov.cn/
China,Apr22,10+0+27 , 3HL,1GD
China,Apr23,6+2+34 , 3HL,1GD
China,Apr24,12+3+29 , 1HL,1BJ
China,Apr25,11+0+30 , 5HL,1GD
China,Apr26,4+1+25 , 1HL
China,Apr27,6+1+40 , 3HL
China,Apr29,22+2+26 , 1GD
China,Apr29,4+3+33 , -
China,Apr30,12+3+25 , 5HL,1IM
China,May01,1+2+20
China,May02,2+0+12, 1SX

world , cases+deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0417.GIF
Italy provinces , cases : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0502.GIF
France deaths : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
positive-rates : http://magictour.free.fr/PR-0416.GIF
--------------------------------------------------------------
web.archive.org  has all the old worldometer lists
https://web.archive.org/web/20200223103856/https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
-------------------------------------------------------
China,4+1+25 ; Japan,+3.6% ; SGP,+7.3% ; India,+4.0% down! , Indonesia,+3.2% down,
 Russia,+8.5%,Mexico,+6.0% down,Ecuador,+103%!?!
--------------------------------------------------------------
UKweekly, pr=20.6%,39.5%,41.7%,41.6%,35.6%
-------------------------------------------------------------
deaths from all causes : https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c
AUT,12;BEL,60;DNK,05,ENG,37,FRA,34,ITA,90,NLD,42,POR,10,SPA,51,SWE,18,CHE,29,all,49
-----------------------------------------------------------------
dax=10583,dow=23973,China A50=13156,euro=1.086,bitcoin=7099,gold=1719,oil=24.00
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Italy,81919 tests, 4013 positive ,positive, rate=85,110,61,62,53,56,60,54,52,53,39,48,36,49
=================================================
2020/04/28
China,6+1+40 ; Japan,1.5% ; SGP,5.9% ; India,5.0% ; IDN,2.4% ;
Russia,7.7%  ; Mexico,6.0%   ; Ecuador,2.2%   ; USA,2.9%
------------------------
10567 genomes from UK : https://www.cogconsortium.uk/data/
Oise:5,10,15,20,30 seropositive on highschool with onset in week 3[Jan12-Jan18?],4,5,6,7
------------------------------------------
Italy,57272 tests, 2091 positive,  pr=(52,53,39,48,36,49,)36 , weekly,210,248,175,127,86,53,36
===========================================
2020/04/29
China,22+2+26 GD ; Japan,2.8%;SGP,3.7%;India,6.0%;Indonesia,4.6%
Russia,7.4%;Mexico,8.0%;Ecuador,4.3%;USA,2.3%
-------------------------------------------------------
WHO : solidarity*3 ; isolate, test, treat
IHME,Apr29, USA=72860,UK=31476,S=15625,I=27544,F=24918,D=6946,B=7708,Ire=1404
mobility reduction http://magictour.free.fr/mobil2.GIF
 https://auravision.ai/covid19-lockdown-tracker/
dax=10978,dow=24608,oil=24.21
UK-positivity-rate down to 13% !
>100 French genomes at Gisaid
Italy,63827 tests , 2086 positive , 36,49,36,32
=================================
2020/04/30
China,2+3+33 ; Japan,+2.0% ; SGP,+4.6% ; India,+6.0% ; IDN,+2.7% ;
Russia,+6.2% ; Mexico,+6.0% ; Ecuador,+1.7% ;USA,+2.2%
Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked.
EuroMOMO website has been redesigned and updated,
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/#z-scores-by-country
Italy,68456 tests, 1872 positive, 36,49,36,32,27
====================================================
2020/05/01
China,2+3+33 ; Japan,+2.0% ; SGP,+3.4% ; India,+5.7% ; IDN,+3.6% ;
Russia,+7.1% ; Mexico,+8.0% ; Ecuador,+1.0% ;USA,+2.7%
charts for US-States :  http://magictour.free.fr/uss04.GIF
Italy, 74207 tests , 1975 positive , 36,49,36,32,27,26
Lombardia,53;North,32,South,9
http://magictour.free.fr/w-0417.GIF
========================================
2020/05/02
China,1+2+20 ;
Hubei: 1378 under observation , 647 asymptomatic under observation,
18 new asymptomatic on May1, 2 released , 68129 confirmed cases in total
 Japan=1.4% , SGP=5.8% , India=5.2% , IDN=4.8%
Russia=7.4% , Mexico=8.0% , Nigeria=12.3%  , USA=2.9% , Brazil=7.2%
can any Country avoid it in the first place ? Should be easier than bringing it down
France:107285 deaths from all causes Mar01-Apr19 , vs. 84929 in 2019
Italy, 55412 tests, 1900 positive ,  36,49,36,32,27,26,34 , weekly,210,248,175,127,86,53,36,30
=================================================
2020/05/03
 Japan=1.7% , SGP=2.6% , India=5.8% , IDN=2.8%
Russia=8.4% , Mexico=7.0% , Nigeria=10.1%  , USA=2.6% , Brazil=5.4%
world-charts updated : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0503.GIF
Italy, 44935 tests, 1389 positive , PR=36,32,27,26,34,30 , weekly,210,248,175,127,86,53,36,30
96
genetics / Re: genbank 04/11
« Last post by gsgs on April 27, 2020, 10:26:17 pm »
2020/04/28 , 10567 genomes from UK : https://www.cogconsortium.uk/data/


2020/05/22 ,  the total number of sequences is 16380
2020/09/03 , 48561 sequences
97
actual epidemic charts / Re: Heilongjiang reports , translation
« Last post by gsgs on April 25, 2020, 11:10:27 pm »
Latest epidemic report
Release source: Heilongjiang Provincial Health Commission Release time: 2020-04-26 Hits: 4266

From 0 to 24 April on April 25, 2020, there were 5 newly confirmed cases in Heilongjiang Province, including 2 in Harbin and 3 in Mudanjiang. The two new cases in Harbin were close contacts of cases diagnosed in the first hospital of Harbin Medical University, and they were further investigated in the centralized medical observation; the three new cases in Mudanjiang were all asymptomatic infections related to overseas imports. Confirmed cases. As of 24:00 on April 25, a total of 549 locally confirmed cases were reported, 470 cases were cured and discharged, 66 cases are currently confirmed (60 cases in Harbin, 5 cases in Mudanjiang, and 1 case in Daqing), and 29 asymptomatic patients Cases (18 cases in Harbin, 9 cases in Mudanjiang, 2 cases in Suihua). The number of hot clinics on that day was 847. A total of 18,831 close contacts have been traced, 16,640 medical observations have been lifted, and 2,191 are still undergoing medical observations.

0-24 hours on April 25, 2020. There were no new imported confirmed cases in the province; three new cases were cured abroad. As of 24:00 on April 25, a total of 386 cases of imported confirmed cases were reported, including 120 cases in Heilongjiang Province and 266 cases in other provinces; 345 cases of confirmed cases imported overseas; and 41 cases of cured cases discharged overseas. 2094 close contacts were traced overseas, 2055 medical observations have been discontinued, and 39 people are still undergoing medical observations.

At 0-24 April 25th, 2020, 1 case of asymptomatic infection imported from abroad, Chinese nationality, Liaoning Province, imported from Russia. As of 24:00 on April 25, there are currently 18 cases of asymptomatic infection imported from abroad, including 8 cases in Heilongjiang Province and 10 cases in other provinces.
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98
actual epidemic charts / Re: Iceland
« Last post by gsgs on April 24, 2020, 10:25:38 pm »
28.02,07.69,-
29.02,00.00,-
01.03,13.64,-
02.03,12.50,-
03.03,11.11,-
04.03,17.28,-
05.03,12.90,-
06.03,17.54,-
07.03,12.07,-
08.03,13.51,-
09.03,09.18,-
10.03,08.28,-
11.03,16.11,-
12.03,06.32,-
13.03,05.60,-
14.03,07.43,-
15.03,09.24,0.94
16.03,05.15,0.71
17.03,08.81,0.58
18.03,16.67,0.57
19.03,13.38,1.85
20.03,11.85,1.23
21.03,27.81,6.67
22.03,12.02,0.00
23.03,18.77,0.00
24.03,20.51,0.43
25.03,08.68,0.47
26.03,20.66,0.99
27.03,13.29,0.58
28.03,15.04,0.41
29.03,11.96,1.02
30.03,09.61,0.22
31.03,08.83,1.38
01.04,15.58,0.73
02.04,11.94,0.54
03.04,08.88,1.88
04.04,10.45,0.85
05.04,06.81,0.93
06.04,09.79,0.11
07.04,04.32,0.08
08.04,04.54,0.20
09.04,04.63,0.11
10.04,04.10,1.24
11.04,04.57,0.50
12.04,04.39,0.00
13.04,05.59,0.00
14.04,01.69,0.46
15.04,03.27,0.21
16.04,03.61,0.21
17.04,01.37,0.16
18.04,02.03,0.42
19.04,01.04,0.35
20.04,03.54,0.17
21.04,01.67,0.76
22.04,01.03,0.46
23.04,00.00,0.00
27.02,,
28.02,1,
29.02,0,
01.03,3,
02.03,6,
03.03,5,
04.03,14,
05.03,8,
06.03,10,
07.03,7,
08.03,5,
09.03,9,
10.03,14,
11.03,24,
12.03,16,
13.03,20,
14.03,24,
15.03,11,9
16.03,15,10
17.03,48,5
18.03,70,8
19.03,61,16
20.03,59,1
21.03,89,2
22.03,22,
23.03,67,
24.03,104,2
25.03,40,2
26.03,81,6
27.03,67,3
28.03,54,2
29.03,61,5
30.03,49,2
31.03,72,11
01.04,93,6
02.04,40,5
03.04,34,20
04.04,60,10
05.04,59,15
06.04,23,1
07.04,29,1
08.04,30,2
09.04,26,1
10.04,11,3
11.04,10,2
12.04,10,0
13.04,9,0
14.04,3,4
15.04,11,1
16.04,13,2
17.04,4,2
18.04,5,6
19.04,1,1
20.04,4,1
21.04,4,3
22.04,2,2
23.04,0,0

date, positivity-rate NUHI in % , positivity-rate deCODE in %
date, positive cases NUHI , positive cases deCODE
99
actual epidemic charts / Heilongjiang reports , translation
« Last post by gsgs on April 24, 2020, 10:04:10 pm »
http://wsjkw.hlj.gov.cn/index.php/Home/Zwgk/all/typeid/42
http://wsjkw.hlj.gov.cn/index.php/Home/Zwgk/show/newsid/8230/navid/42/stypeid/


HL,Apr05,-,-,-,-;-,-,-,-;759,-,487
HL,Apr12,11,0,0,0;7,0,0,0;16664,275,1633

HL,Apr17,32,0,0,0;19,0,2,1;17192,792,1187
HL,Apr18,36,2,0,0;18,3,0,2;17325,832,935
HL,Apr19,39,2,0,0;21,3,0,2;17599,1092,582
HL,Apr20,45,2,1,0;23,5,0,2;17899,1378,429
HL,Apr21,52,2,0,0;23,5,0,2;18087,1548,207
HL,Apr22,55,2,0,0;21,5,0,2;18230,1679,88
HL,Apr23,57,2,1,0;20,12,0,2;18373,1785,46
HL,Apr24,58,2,1,0;21,12,0,2;18615,2020,41
HL,Apr25,60,5,1,0;18,9,0,2;18831,2191,39



Latest epidemic report
Release source: Heilongjiang Provincial Health Commission Release time: 2020-04-25 Hits: 3088

At 0-24 April 24, 2020, 1 newly confirmed case (Harbin) was added in Heilongjiang Province, which was a close contact with the confirmed cases in the second hospital of the city. One new local asymptomatic infected person (Harbin) was added as a close contact person with confirmed cases in the second hospital of the city. Both of them have been further included in the centralized medical observation. As of 24:00 on April 24, a total of 544 local confirmed cases were reported, 470 cases were cured and discharged, 61 cases were confirmed (58 cases in Harbin, 2 cases in Mudanjiang, and 1 case in Daqing), and 35 asymptomatic infected persons Cases (21 cases in Harbin, 12 cases in Mudanjiang, 2 cases in Suihua). The number of hot clinics on the day was 932. A total of 18615 close contacts were tracked, 16595 people were dismissed from medical observation, and 2020 people are still undergoing medical observation.

0-24 hours on April 24, 2020. In the province, there were 1 newly confirmed cases imported from abroad, Chinese nationality, Heilongjiang Province, imported from Russia; 23 cases of overseas cured cases were discharged. As of 24:00 on April 24, a total of 386 cases of imported confirmed cases were reported, including 120 cases in Heilongjiang Province and 266 cases in other provinces; 348 cases of confirmed cases imported overseas; and 38 cases of cured cases discharged overseas. 2094 close contacts have been traced to overseas, 2053 people have been released from medical observation, and 41 people are still undergoing medical observation.

There will be no new imported asymptomatic infected persons from 0-24 April 24, 2020. As of 24:00 on April 24, there are currently 18 cases of asymptomatic infection imported from abroad, including 9 cases in Heilongjiang Province and 9 cases in other provinces.
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100
nCoV - discussion / Re: updates
« Last post by gsgs on April 24, 2020, 12:07:14 pm »
copies of these posts  readable also by non-members are here :
https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ncov-discussion/updates/msg169/#msg169

2020/04/18  [one new post per week now)
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/
http://www.cdc.go.kr/index.es?sid=a2
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/news/p3_2_1.jsp?lingua=italiano&menu=notizie&dataa=2020/12/31&datada=2017/01/01
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-province/dpc-covid19-ita-province.csv
https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Archiv.html
https://corona.rki.de
https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
ECDC: https://t.co/JZ7VGiITDa?amp=1
DE: https://opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd4580c810204019a7b8eb3e0b329dd6_0.csv
I: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-sorveglianza-dati


China,Apr17,27+5+54 ; 7HL,2GD,1SI
China,Apr18,16+2+44 ; 6HL,1GD
China,Apr19,12+2+49 ; 3HL,1IM    [Zhong Nanshang talking about introduction from Russia]
China,Apr20,11+3+37 , 6HL,1GD   [speculation about a new wave in Harbin]
China,Apr21,30+3+42 , 7HL           http://wsjkw.hlj.gov.cn/
China,Apr22,10+0+27 , 3HL,1GD
China,Apr23,6+2+34 , 3HL,1GD
China,Apr24,12+3+29 , 1HL,1BJ
China,Apr25,11+0+30 , 5HL,1GD


Italy provinces : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0417.GIF
in most Northern provinces it looks horizontal, not going down.
E.g. Torino,Milano,Pavia
South Korea : http://magictour.free.fr/kor0418.GIF
they keep it out
France, deaths from all causes by department : http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
peak in Paris ~Apr01
'No evidence' that COVID-19 survivors have immunity, WHO warns http://dlvr.it/RV0DBG
99 worldcharts updated : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0417.GIF
down : CHN,AUT,CHE,KOR,NOR,AUS,GRC,ISL,LUX,THA,NZL,CZE
Italy, 61725 tests, 3491 positive ; slightly worse than the day before
==============================================
2020/04/19
China, ... website down ?
South Korea,8 - ~20% reduced testing the last days
testicles may increase coronavirus risk
COVID transmits by aerosole between ferrets
Italy 50708 tests , 3047 positive, rate=85,110,61,62,53,56,60
=========================================================
2020/04/20
China-health website nhc.gov.cn is still down, first time I see this
waybackmachine gives also an empty page for Apr18, google cache  has it, but only
ahows the first 4 lines
OK, I found it here for Apr18 : http://taiyuan.creb.com.cn/cj/119071.jhtml
and here for Apr19 : http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2020/4/438613.shtm
updted numbers see above
Hubei website works : 109 still in hospital (6636,43471   1,2 months ago),
   1974 in observation (3463,68345)
截至4月19日24时新型冠状病毒肺炎

The Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT),
https://covidtracker.bsg.ox.ac.uk/
Italy: 41483 tests , 2256 positive ;
=======================================
2020/04/21
China, 11+3+37 , 6HL,1GD
singapore, +1426 = 22% = big increase , Japan only + 367=3.4%
4% in LA-County have antibodies
speculative : North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s health is in grave danger following a surgery,c
NYC deaths from all causes 4*normal in week 14
IHME,US=60308,UK=37521,NY=21812
06:03-UTC,Dax=10476,dow=23467,euro=1.084,oil=21.47 (23.8 one month ago)
Li Lanjuan , mutations in Hangzhou   
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1
2.6% of infected are hospitalized and 0.53% die in France
Lockdown reduced R from 3.3 to 0.5 , 6% infected by mid May
https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-02548181/document
Italy,52126 tests,2729 positives, 
daily PR : 61,62,53,56,60,54,52,53 ;
weekly PR : 204,275,237,149,94,85,52 , Lombardia,weekly : 394,506,421,257,161,152
=============================================
2020/04/22
China : http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yjb/ works again for me ,30+3+42 ,7HL
Singapore,+14% [reminds me to Daegu, they know the source, younger people,few deaths]
Japan,+3.4% , looks good
US - CDC director warns second wave of #coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating
he shares a plan of contact-tracing
[#will this prevent the 2nd wave ?]
government-response-index and cases : http://magictour.free.fr/oxcg3a.GIF
4fold increased deaths from all causes in NYC last week
Italy , 3370,63101
============================================
2020/04/23
China,10+0+27
5/6 missed in Geneva,6% were infected
first death in Santa Clara County on February 6
euromomo - new design, update, def. of z-score (complicated) , nationally not worse than a bad flu
rki, gives weekly # tests --> week 10,...,16 German positivity rate : 312,595,683,869,903,810,666
99 worldcharts updated : http://magictour.free.fr/w-0417.GIF , now also with deaths
Belgium had been praised for their response - yet they have most deaths per pop.
What did Bergamo,NYC,Milan etc. do wrong ? Or Paris vs. Berlin ?
-------------------------------------
13.9% have antibodies in NY-State
Australia wants WHO to have same powers of weapons inspectors
Italy , 66658 tests, 2646 positive , 62,53,56,60,54,52,53,39,48,36
===============================================
2020/04/24
China,6+2+34 , 3HL,1GD ,
Japan,743,507,390,455,482,585,628,566,390,367,378,423
Singapore,942,596,1426,1111,1016,1037
+++ 11:03 WHO Europa lobt "starke Führung" durch Merkel und Spahn +++
+++ 10:36 RKI: Lockerungen erst, wenn nur noch wenige Hundert Fälle pro Tag +++
Italy, 62447,3021
http://magictour.free.fr/F-0406.GIF
http://magictour.free.fr/w-0417.GIF
=================================================
2020/04/25
China,12+3+29 ; Japan,+3.6% ; SGP,+8.0% ; India,+8.0%,IDN,+5.6%
France : ~3% (13000 so far) more deaths than usual this year
Ile-de-France+Paris : ~13% (7000 so far) surdeaths
(assuming the downtrend contiinues and it stays low)
https://www.insee.fr/fr/information/4470857
NYC : ~27% surdeaths
--------------------------
Italy, 65387 tests, 2357 positive ,[weekend]
positive, rate=85,110,61,62,53,56,60,54,52,53,39,48,36
================================================
2020/04/26
China,11+0+30, Hubei : 12 still in hospital, 1706 still under observation
19 new asymptomatic cases on Apr25 in Hubei,
 (not counted as confirmed cases, which are 0 since long, so are these "re-indections" ?)
Japan,+3.6% , Singapore,+5.1%(only) , India,+6.0% , South Korea=10728
Lack of association between genetic variants at ACE2 and TMPRSS2 genes involved
in SARS-CoV-2 infection and human quantitative phenotypes
Gut microbiota may underlie the predisposition of healthy individuals to COVID-19
Italy Provinces : http://magictour.free.fr/ip-0425.GIF

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